G40 Whitmann (AXIS) VS. JamesAleman (ALLIES)

[JamesAleman]

I’ve sent her a message, best of luck if we do proceed.

I asked her to respond in this thread with her decision.

(if I were the axis, I wouldn’t be playing the good guy role)  :-D

[Jennifer]

It is my opinion that the France battle was due to insufficient attackers to negate the effects of the RNG (Random Number Generator.)

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: 8 Inf, 3 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom.
v.
***Defender: 7 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig.

Average battle duration: 3.4 rounds of combat

Overall %*:
***A. survives: 80.7%
***D. survives: 17.8%
***No one survives: 1.5%

Given the number of units and the amount of attacking "3"s vs defending "2"s this result is not highly implausible.  It is, however, unfortunate and I do empathize with Whitmann.

The lack of France to fall, but remain vacant may be a blessing in disguise for Italy.  Now they are prepared to collect an extra 23 IPC (19 treasury + 4 territory) from France to use in the Mediterreanian Sea.

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In regards to the battle at Amur, I see no real fault in the attack plan.  Sufficient punch was brought to bear for any realistic scenario that could be suspected.  It is a simple case of the RNG screwing with the universe.

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: Attacker: 12 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 6 Fig, 5 Tactical.
v. 
***Defender: Defender: 17 Inf.

Average battle duration: 2.5 rounds of combat

Overall %*:
***A. survives: 99.9%
***D. survives: 0.1%
***No one survives: 0%

The loss of 3 tactical bombers and one fighter in opening fire certainly was very unlucky.  That is near 50% accuracy with an AA Gun that usually gets 17% accuracy.  Within reason one should expect some modulation in the results, perhaps 9-25% range of accuracy.

The follow-up was just plain deadly.  9 of 17 hits (53% Accuracy) with units that have 33% accuracy.

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To be honest, before making a decision I would really like to see a final Japan map.  I understand the demoralizing situation, I’ve been there myself, as I am sure most players have been.

This is how I am ruling the case.

1)  The battle in France, while having 80% odds of success and failing, is not detrimental to the outcome of the game.  Since there are no defenders left in Paris, and I highly suspect that England is not going to be flying fighters in there to be helplessly slaughtered by the Italians, I feel the European axis have good chances of recovery.  It should be interesting to see how Italy chooses to spend their unforeseen gains, financially!  Woe be to the Royal Navy and African Defenders.  I suspect mass carnage is soon to follow here.

2)  Yugoslavia went badly for the Germans, but given how the naval engagements went, I do not feel the Germans are negatively impacted by this battle, in an overall military strength situation.

3)  Japan’s attack on Amur was devastating to Japan.  Japan had 40 punch going into the battle, Russia had 34 punch. One would have rightly assumed the loss of 3 aircraft and 10 infantry in that attack, far less than the dice revealed.

It is my opinion that the situation in Europe is far from unsalvagable.  I realize that it can feel demoralizing to lose France, especially if you took  more casualties than you expected too.  I just do not see the situation there as too far gone to overcome.  It is my opinion that Italy should be able to make up the difference and coupled with Germany’s effects at sea, Europe can be salvaged.

It is my opinion that Japan is too far in the hole to be an effective ally of the Germans and Italians.  The loss of 150 IPC in the fields of Amur depleted them of so many resources that they probably will not be able to recover before Allies can enter the war.

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Given that both players appear to be in agreement, I am willing to rewind the clock to the Conduct Combat Phase of Japan’s First Turn.  All purchases and combat moves are final, but all dice may be rerolled.

Note:  All dice must be rerolled or no dice can be rerolled.

Your map is attached.  I hope the ruling is to everyone’s satisfaction, if there is an issue and you’d like me to consider something I may have missed, please feel free to PM me.

~Jennifer

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01Cjapan_conductcombat.AAM

[Whitmann]

Ok, will send move tonight.  Thanks again, will do my best to make a game of it.

[Whitmann]

Ok here we go again…

Hun: (DEF: 2 INF) RND1
Ksi->Hun: 3Inf+1 Rtl
Man->Hun 2Fht+1Tac
FOR->Hun: 1FHT

ATK:
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 42@1: (1, 1)2@2: (2, 5)1@3: (6)1@4: (4)

DEF:
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (3, 2)

[Whitmann]

Yun: (DEF: 4 INF) RND1
Kwa->Yun: 3Inf+1Rtl
Ksu->Yun: 1Fht+1Tac
Jpn->Yun: 2Bmb

ATK:
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 1@3 3@4; Total Hits: 32@1: (2, 2)2@2: (4, 4)1@3: (4)3@4: (4, 2, 3)

DEF:
Rolls: 4@2; Total Hits: 24@2: (1, 6, 6, 1)

[Whitmann]

Yun: (DEF: 4 INF) RND2
Kwa->Yun: 3Inf+1Rtl
Ksu->Yun: 1Fht+1Tac
Jpn->Yun: 2Bmb

ATK:
Rolls: 2@2 1@3 3@4; Total Hits: 42@2: (4, 5)1@3: (2)3@4: (2, 3, 3)

DEF:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

AA Fire:
Fighters:
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 06@1: (2, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6)
Tacs:
Rolls: 5@1; Total Hits: 15@1: (5, 5, 6, 1, 3)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 11@1 2@2 7@3 4@4; Total Hits: 411@1: (3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 2)2@2: (4, 6)7@3: (5, 5, 2, 4, 5, 4, 5)4@4: (2, 2, 6, 3)

DEF:
Rolls: 17@2; Total Hits: 817@2: (6, 6, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND1
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 13@1 2@2 7@3 4@4; Total Hits: 713@1: (6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5)2@2: (2, 4)7@3: (1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6)4@4: (6, 1, 5, 5)

DEF:
Rolls: 13@2; Total Hits: 313@2: (5, 6, 1, 6, 4, 6, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 5, 3)

[Whitmann]

Amu: (DEF: 17 INF + 1AA) RND3
Kor->Amu 4Inf
Man-> Amu 6INF+1RTL+1MCH
Oki->Amu 1INF+ (Jap) 1ARM (transport SZ19->SZ5)
OKI-> Amu: 1FHT
Kor-> Amu: 1FHT
JPN-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
SZ6-> Amu: 2FHT+2TAC
Man->Amu: 1Tac

ATK:
Rolls: 1@1 1@2 7@3 4@4; Total Hits: 81@1: (4)1@2: (2)7@3: (2, 4, 2, 6, 2, 3, 2)4@4: (5, 2, 5, 1)

DEF:
Rolls: 6@2; Total Hits: 36@2: (3, 5, 2, 2, 6, 1)

[Whitmann]

Wow you have some great luck my friend!

Horrible for me again but maybe not game ending this time around

Have to go to work will finish posting NCM Sunday night

[Whitmann]

Non-Combat:

Kwa:
SZ6->SZ36: 1TRN (Load 1Arm+1Inf Jpn->Kwa)
SZ33->KWA: 1FHT+1TAC

KOR:
SZ20->SZ6 1TRN (2Inf Jpn ->Kor)

SZ36:
SZ19->SZ36: 1BB+1DD+1SS
SZ33->SZ36:  1CV+1DD
SZ6->SZ36: 1CV

SZ20-SZ37: 1CRZ

MAN->JEH: 1AA

PLACE:
2 TRANSPORTS SZ6
1 FACT KSU

COLLECT:

ACTUAL:    31
BONUS:    10
SAVED:      0
TOTAL:      41

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01CJAPAN.AAM

[Whitmann]

Wow! I am really sorry I was just reviewing the move and noticed on the second round combat in AMU I rolled incorrectly, when posting multi round battles I often copy and paste round to round and instead of rolling 3 inf I rolled 13!

I’m not sure at all what to do to fix this, holly this game has been a bad one for me, I apologize.  Let me know what you want to do?  I am out of town for the weekend playing in a beach volleyball tournament ( which hopefully goes better then this game ) and will be back Sunday please contact CMDR Jennifer and ask her how to resolve, I am willing to accept whatever resolution she feels is fair.  Sorry again

[JamesAleman]

I’m OK re-rerolling the 13 as 3, then rolling for any extra infantry (up to 3) that I may have left. If this results in one extra combat round I’ll just roll it for you.

Incidentally, while I am getting lucky, its strange, I’ve had Amur hit 10 times the first time I ever did it :) My buddy was ribbing me the rest of the game. Everyone likes the opportunity to hit Amur since no one stacks there, “be careful what you wish for” :)

Amur round 2 3 inf for Japan:
Rolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 03@1: (6, 2, 4)

[JamesAleman]

That leaves 3 extra Russian infantry to roll for round 3:
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (1, 5, 4)

[JamesAleman]

That leaves Russia with 1 infantry for round 4: (you lose one more unit, I’ll let you select it, I’ll just roll your 3’s and 4’s to finish me off)

1@2 or 1@1

Amur: 7@3 4@4 vs 1@2

Round 4
Rolls: 7@3 4@4; Total Hits: 67@3: (4, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 5)4@4: (4, 3, 4, 4)
vs
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[JamesAleman]

Wow, Sorry about that:

So to review, you need to lose 2 more units, 1 for round 3, 1 for round 4. I have not edited the map.

I’ll wait for you to change map before doing allies.

[Whitmann]

Sounds fair just delete 2 fighters 1 in Man and 1 in Jeh

Thanks again

[Jennifer]

@Whitmann:

Wow you have some great luck my friend!

Horrible for me again but maybe not game ending this time around

Have to go to work will finish posting NCM Sunday night

Much more in scope of what to expect, however.  At least you didn’t lose so many aircraft this time, eh?

Good’luck boys.

[JamesAleman]

@Whitmann:

Sounds fair just delete 2 fighters 1 in Man and 1 in Jeh

Thanks again

I only see ftrs in Jeh, not Man. Deleted 2, 1 remains.

Feel free to adjust if you want the fighter to come from elsewhere.

G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01CJAPAN.AAM