Who will win?

[Don Bosch]

This weekend we played our 3rd global 1940 game

player 1 Germany/Italy
player 2 Japan
player 3 USSR/UK/France
player 4 USA/China/ANZAC

Our game lasted about 12 hours, we’ve played 8 or 9 full rounds. Nobody won and nobody has surrendered. After the last round we have taken pictures of the game. Next time we can setup the game and continue. Just curious about your opinions: Who will win the game?

Notice:
Yellow = 10
Red = 5
Green = 3
White = 1

We use YG’s extra NO’s (not the victory objectives) explained in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9C_3d1EMR8

Income (include NO’s):
Germany 82
USSR 23
Japan 69
USA 76
China 4
UK-E 6
UK-P 32
Italy 35
ANZAC 21
France 0

Total Axis income 186
Total Allies income 162

[Don Bosch]

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[Don Bosch]

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[Don Bosch]

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[Don Bosch]

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[Don Bosch]

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[Don Bosch]

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[SubmersedElk]

The Domino’s Pizza delivery guy will win.  :-D

[Young Grasshopper]

I can’t tell you who will win, because you’re not using my victory objectives rule  :-D

[rydbirkjr]

Japan is toast they have no fleet and no airforce left. US has some fleet and anzac has plenty of money to basicaly play around in asia and help UK pac get back to its normal cash.

I don’t quite get this statement. Japan has 6 carriers with 12 places + some planes inland + in Japan. Around 18 planes still. The US has 5 carriers with planes, 1 BB and a few destroyers in the pacific. Doesn’t seem that overwhelming.  :-)

Italy looks pretty solid in the Middle East but the Atlantic doesn’t look thaaaat impressing. Though, with those incomes, Italy and Germany should be able to stack a lot of trops in S. Italy and W Germany to fend of the pesky allied forces. Moscow looks pretty stacked though, be aware of strike-back capabilities.

Looks like a fun game. UK seems pretty irrelevant if it wasn’t for the transports…

[simon33]

Pretty sure ShadowHawk didn’t see the red counters on the Philippines carriers.

Assuming Germany is moving next it looks like they’ll have to retreat to wait for reinforcements. However, continued strategic bombing on Moscow will make it difficult for the USSR to mobilise.

Japan would then smash the Caroline Islands’ fleet and perhaps be counter attacked by the Gilbert Islands. Italy is in a mountain of trouble. I’m not sure about Germany going after the SZ92 fleet though.

Hard to say to be honest. Seems like UK Pac is dying as is China. Then Japan will come through and take USSR’s income in the east.

I’m thinking that Axis are ahead, although Italy are so weak that it might not be by a big enough factor.

[simon33]

One question: Why is the US income so low? They should be getting 70IPC/turn. I don’t see any convoy disruption either.

[Don Bosch]

@simon33:

Pretty sure ShadowHawk didn’t see the red counters on the Philippines carriers.

Assuming Germany is moving next it looks like they’ll have to retreat to wait for reinforcements. However, continued strategic bombing on Moscow will make it difficult for the USSR to mobilise.

Japan would then smash the Caroline Islands’ fleet and perhaps be counter attacked by the Gilbert Islands

Japan has 6 loaded carriers in the Phillipines
We start a new game round so Germany is first
All the US carriers are at the Caroline islands, not the Gilbert Islands (sorry for the confusion)
US is currently making 73-78 IPC’s (52 income, +20 NO’s + 1 dice extra income “war bonds”)

[simon33]

US marker is on 49. Is that a mistake?

So if the Japanese fleet attacks the US one, it would be 6 carriers on 5? I guess that isn’t enough advantage to counter the defender’s advantage.

[Don Bosch]

@simon33:

US marker is on 49. Is that a mistake?

So if the Japanese fleet attacks the US one, it would be 6 carriers on 5? I guess that isn’t enough advantage to counter the defender’s advantage.

Yes, the marker should be at 52 (we usualy check it each round). We don’t include NO’s on the income tracker, we use YG’s card deck.

Japan has no reason to attack the US fleet as long as a victory is not 100% sure. Japan is currently making 69 IPC’s, maybe even more when they attack Russia/Calcutta. Japan’s goal is to keep their money and block the US fleet using destoyers in SZ 16,17,18 (wich are attacked each round). Japan has the defenders advantage + scramble advantage + kamikaze advantage. No reason to attack the US so far…

[Warwick]

I play Global War '39 from HBG so I have lost a lot of my memory on Global '40 but I do not see how Italy is in trouble. This is most likely due to me forgetting the surrender conditions on Italy.

However looking at the troops strengths

Southern Italy
INF - 14
FTR - 2 or 3
MECH - 3
ARTY - 1
AA - 4

US
INF - 10
MECH - 3
ARTY - 5
ARM - 2
FTR -2 (1 in reserve)
TAC - 1 ( 1 in Reserve)

Lift = 8 (4 in reserve) transport lift capacity

Since Italy moves before the US Italy can have an additional 10 INF on the Italian Penisula, depending on Strat Bomber action. Italy also has Africa nearly empty of UK troop and several options to expand their IPC income.

What am I missing?

[Kreuzfeld]

@simon33:

US marker is on 49. Is that a mistake?

So if the Japanese fleet attacks the US one, it would be 6 carriers on 5? I guess that isn’t enough advantage to counter the defender’s advantage.

All of the productions are in the first post of this thread.

Income (include NO’s):
Germany 82
USSR 23
Japan 69
USA 76
China 4
UK-E 6
UK-P 32
Italy 35
ANZAC 21
France 0

[Don Bosch]

@Warwick:

I play Global War '39 from HBG so I have lost a lot of my memory on Global '40 but I do not see how Italy is in trouble. This is most likely due to me forgetting the surrender conditions on Italy.

However looking at the troops strengths

Southern Italy
INF - 14
FTR - 2 or 3
MECH - 3
ARTY - 1
AA - 4

US
INF - 10
MECH - 3
ARTY - 5
ARM - 2
FTR -2 (1 in reserve)
TAC - 1 ( 1 in Reserve)

Lift = 8 (4 in reserve) transport lift capacity

Since Italy moves before the US Italy can have an additional 10 INF on the Italian Penisula, depending on Strat Bomber action. Italy also has Africa nearly empty of UK troop and several options to expand their IPC income.

What am I missing?

US has 4 carries with a total of 6 fighters and 2 TB’s. however, they can only use 5 fightes and 1 TB in their next turn to attack Italy.

Italy has 3 fighters.
US goes before Italy so they can attack Southern Italy. Germany can send 6 inf from North Italy into South Italy.
Italian/German fleet is very weak.
When Southern Italy is lost, the Italians can’t counter and lose their income to US or UK.
Italy has a huge advantage in Africa (south of Egypt) to rob the UK’s income. However, they must be carefull not to lose Egypt to the Allies.

[Warwick]

The US has 4 TRNS. This is the limiting factor. Even the additional FTR and TAC and 2 TRNS on the EAST coast make the fight a near run thing but that is a turn or 2 away. (Again I play a lot of Global War not Axis and Allies so there easily could be rules I am missing that make my position wrong. I already screwed up the turn sequence.)

Its attack on Southern Italy is limited to something like

4INF
2ARTY
2ARM
5FTR
1TAC

Against
17 INF
1 ARTY
3 FTR
4 AA

Using an Axis and Allies combat simulator this fight without the AAA results in a defeated attacking force and 8 or so survivors. This would leave the US navy off the coast of Italy needing a turn to return to pick up troops. (And empty of its FTRs a possible target for the Germany navy.) Italy would have 2 build cycles to recover before the next invasion. It does not seem with the current TRNS lift capacity the US can seriously threaten Italy.

[simon33]

@Don:

Yes, the marker should be at 52 (we usualy check it each round). We don’t include NO’s on the income tracker, we use YG’s card deck.

I guess you’re just tracking income on the board and have other markers to keep track of PUs earned. Otherwise that would be confusing.

@Warwick:

I play Global War '39 from HBG so I have lost a lot of my memory on Global '40 but I do not see how Italy is in trouble. This is most likely due to me forgetting the surrender conditions on Italy.

Once Italy loses control of SZ97 its income is virtually stopped. It’ll still have its African and Mid East income in this case though.

It doesn’t need to lose its capital to become impotent.