11L '41 - Manstein (axis) v BoldFresh (Allies) Bid 6, +NOs, No Tech

[Manstein]

lose BB hit, 2 DD to subs
lose 2 ACC, BB, 3 DD to non subs
= left for r2: 4 fgt

[Manstein]

luck balancing out again
that’s 4 over par for you according to my calculator
top 10% result

[boldfresh]

I think it was between 2 and 3 hits over but let’s not speak of balance until we see your defense, which has been particularly scalding in naval battles.

Defense of z50 - 5 des, 2 acc, 4 ftr, bat
Rolls: 7@2 5@4; Total Hits: 67@2: (3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1)5@4: (6, 6, 5, 4, 4)

[boldfresh]

The way you get expected number of hits is to add up the total attack number and divide by six.  So for my attack roll it was 38/6 or 6.3.  For your defense it was 34/6 or 5.6.

[boldfresh]

i lose 6 subs

z50 round 2 - 2 des, 4 ftr, 2 bom vs. 4 ftr
atk:
Rolls: 2@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 62@2: (5, 6)4@3: (3, 3, 1, 1)2@4: (2, 1)
def:
Rolls: 4@4; Total Hits: 34@4: (1, 3, 5, 3)

[Manstein]

surely you can’t lose 6 subs first time
one of the 4 hits was from a fighter, which can’t hit a sub, so it must have hit something else, presumably a destroyer, which reduces the number you can roll for in r2

[Manstein]

they didn’t hit r2, so i’ll let it ride if you want to
but pls reflect the extra DD lost when you do map

[Manstein]

i presume you will then lose the second destroyer and then two of the 6 aircraft

[Manstein]

of course, i’m happy to take my chances if you want to re-roll the second round

[boldfresh]

not sure what you’re talking about.  i can lose all subs because you have destroyers present, which make the subs eligible casualties for the aircraft.

AA41_Manstein_Boldfresh+6_09fUSA.AAM

[boldfresh]

the battle was appropriate as rolled.  i just can’t attack with the sub second round because subs can’t hit aircraft, and the sub is not eligible as a casualty for your planes because you have no destroyer present.

well you got above average defense in the battle, so i didn’t really pick up the ground i had hoped…  yes, i did do a little better than odds, but not a whole lot.  the way i see it, i came out with 1 more plane than expected.  taking out that additional bomber and my destroyers was big.  DANG IT.  so no, i do not see that as a balancing out.

z50 cwlo 6 subs, 2 des, bom

NC

z53 - 2 acc (z52), 4 ftr (z50), trn (z56)
haw - bom (z50), inf, arm (wca)
z18 - acc (z10), ftr (z22), ftr (bra)
eca - AA (wca)

place 3 inf, 3 arm (eus)
place 3 trn (z10)
place ftr (wus)

collect  53, has 53

even though it wasn’t a great result for me in that battle, i think it might be enough for me to claw back into this one.  knock on wood, as i cringe remembering the many thrashings that have happened so far…  :-P

AA41_Manstein_Boldfresh+6_09fUSA.AAM

[boldfresh]

@Manstein:

of course, i’m happy to take my chances if you want to re-roll the second round

yeah, trust me, everything done was proper.  if you have a defending sub present, the attacker can take subs as casualties for any fighter hits.  the battle went pretty much on odds, within one hit, so i guess you should consider yourself fortunate.  with my very good first round attack roll, it could have gone much worse for you…  :-)

[Manstein]

Germany 10

With 60, Germany buys 8 tanks (40), 2 fighters (20)

Combat Movement
France (1nf, art, 3 tanks) - 9 inf, 3 art (Ger), fgt (EPol)
Karelia (2 inf) - inf, art (Bel), 2 fgt (EPol)
Russia (2 art, 15 tanks) - inf, 2 art, 11 tanks (Cauc) + inf (EUk) + art (Bel) + tank (Arc) + 4 tanks (EPol)

[Manstein]

France
AA gun
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (4)

[Manstein]

France r1

9 inf, 3 art, fgt
Rolls: 6@1 6@2 1@3; Total Hits: 66@1: (2, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4)6@2: (1, 1, 1, 1, 6, 1)1@3: (4)

v inf, art, 3 tanks
Rolls: 2@2 3@3; Total Hits: 22@2: (3, 1)3@3: (3, 5, 5)

[Manstein]

France liberated for loss of 2 infantry

Karelia
inf, art, 2 fgt
Rolls: 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 32@2: (6, 2)2@3: (1, 3)

v 2 inf
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (3, 3)

[Manstein]

Karelia twol

and now the big one…

Russia
2 inf, 3 art, 16 tanks
Rolls: 5@2 16@3; Total Hits: 85@2: (3, 4, 6, 2, 6)16@3: (2, 3, 6, 5, 5, 3, 3, 6, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 5)

v 2 art, 15 tanks
Rolls: 2@2 15@3; Total Hits: 102@2: (1, 6)15@3: (6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 1)

[Manstein]

Russia 2
11 tanks
Rolls: 11@3; Total Hits: 311@3: (3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 1, 5, 5, 6)

v 9 tanks
Rolls: 9@3; Total Hits: 69@3: (3, 2, 6, 5, 6, 3, 2, 1, 3)

[Manstein]

once again all the little battles go my way and you’re killing me in the one that matters

Russia 3
5 tanks
Rolls: 5@3; Total Hits: 35@3: (5, 6, 3, 2, 3)

v 6 tanks
Rolls: 6@3; Total Hits: 36@3: (1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5)

[Manstein]

Russia 4
2 tanks
Rolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (5, 1)

v 3 tanks
Rolls: 3@3; Total Hits: 23@3: (4, 2, 2)