11L '41 - Manstein (axis) v BoldFresh (Allies) Bid 6, +NOs, No Tech

[boldfresh]

OK, the high stakes battle continues with round 1 defense!!

z50 rd 1 defense - 2 des, 4 acc, cru, 7 ftr, bat
Rolls: 6@2 1@3 8@4; Total Hits: 96@2: (5, 6, 2, 4, 5, 6)1@3: (2)8@4: (1, 1, 2, 5, 3, 2, 2, 4)

[boldfresh]

dang, that was a killer defense.  i guess i should expect that by now…  :-D

i will lose sub, 3 des, 2 acc, 3 ftr

z50 round 2 - 2 acc, 5 ftr, 3 bom vs. 7 ftr, dBat

atk:
Rolls: 2@1 5@3 3@4; Total Hits: 52@1: (3, 2)5@3: (3, 1, 4, 1, 4)3@4: (2, 6, 3)

[boldfresh]

you will obviously 5 fighters

round 2 defense
Rolls: 8@4; Total Hits: 78@4: (6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 3)

[boldfresh]

son of a… !!!

geez man!

[boldfresh]

ok i lose 2 acc, 5 ftr - so much for getting anywhere near the expected outcome in this battle…  :roll:

round 4 - 3 bom vs. 2 ftr, bat
atk:
Rolls: 3@4; Total Hits: 13@4: (5, 2, 5)
def:
Rolls: 3@4; Total Hits: 23@4: (6, 2, 3)

[boldfresh]

this is just sick

round 4 - bom vs. ftr, bat
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (5)
Rolls: 2@4; Total Hits: 22@4: (4, 1)

[boldfresh]

dude, that is like an upper 5% dicing… AGAIN!

and my transports are completely toast as well…  :roll:

[Manstein]

that is sick
it will probably balance out when we have bloodbaths over moscow and berlin

[Manstein]

the last couple of rounds were bad, i admit
but my odds calcualtor suggests i was 40.4% to end up with 1fgt/1BB or better
and that you were 46% to end up with nothing
so i’m not sure taken as a whole that it was totally outrageous

[boldfresh]

AND you save 4 transports, let’s not forget to mention that.  critical mistake on my part to keep two aircraft carriers in the first round, expecting SOMEWHAT normal dice…  you may not have realized i had about 85% odds to sink your entire fleet there, so much that i felt comfortable saving two carriers after round 1, which still left me with cushion. needless to say that battle was a 150-200 IPC swing.  i should have came out with a considerable amount of material, as well as taking the philippines, even while saving a loaded carrier or two…  :| in addition i lose several transports while you save several transports, as well, as saving a battleship.  this coming on the heels of your miraculous taking of the caucusus.  it will seriously take a near miracle to recover from this incredible string of disasters…  :-o

since i didn’t win the sea battle the transports have to retreat

transports to z48

NC

z46 - 3 subs (z56)
wus - AA (wca)

place 2 ftr (wus)
place 3 subs, 2 des (z56)

collect 48, has 49

China does nothing

AA41_Manstein_Boldfresh+6_05fUSA.AAM

[boldfresh]

your odds calculator is wrong.  that battle was a 86% favorite for me to take out the entire fleet.  in addition, the median result (if i would have lost the carriers first) was for me to have 3 fighters and 3 bombers REMAINING after sinking the entire fleet.  you must have entered something wrong into your calculator, because i was even a 62% favorite if i would have lost my carriers LAST.  anyway, it happens, should make for a much more interesting game…. one which you will probably win…  :-)

[Manstein]

GERMANY 6
With 44, Germany buys: 8 inf, 4 tanks

Combat Movement
SBR Russia – bomber (ger)
Kazakh (inf) – inf, art, fgt (Persia)
Eastern Ukraine (mt) – tank (bul/rom)

[Manstein]

Combat
SBR
AA gun in Russia fires (bomber takes circuitous route avoiding other AA guns, can land in caucasus if it lives)
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1)

[Manstein]

and it doesn’t
my first SBR, down in flames

[Manstein]

Kazakh
inf, art, fgt
Rolls: 2@2 1@3; Total Hits: 22@2: (2, 4)1@3: (3)

v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

[Manstein]

Kazakh taken without loss

Non Combat Movement
Kazakh fighter lands caucasus

Caucasus – 2 fgts (sz13), 7 tanks (bul/rom),

• 3 inf (bul/rom), 2 tanks (france), 1 tank (Balkans) all via 3 trans (sz13)=>sz16

SZ16 – ACC, DD (sz13)
Egypt - Tank (Fr eq afr)
Czech – 2 art (rom/bul)
Poland – 1 inf (rom/bul)
Germany – 2 art, 3 inf (france)
Balkans – 3 inf (Ger)

[Manstein]

sorry - wee tweak
instead of transporting 3 inf from bul/rom, make it 2 from bul/rom and the lone inf from morocco
the spare man from bul/rom moves to balkans and we now only move 2 from germany to balkans
so the upshot is the same, except there is one more in germany and one less in morocco

[boldfresh]

actually, you can fly over AA on your way to a territory without getting shot at.  you can only be subjected to one aa shot per turn per plane in AA50 and the only AA gun that can fire at your plane is the one in the territory you are attacking.

[boldfresh]

this game is probably completely over.  the combo of your massacre of my fleet AND your taking of caucusus is probably not possible to overcome.  :|

[boldfresh]

beginner’s luck indeed…  :|