Are you going to roll dice?
No dice. Only pips rounded.
I feel like I’m in the movie mallrats and my name is Gill.
sz108 to sz109
1 sb
sz117 to sz106
1 sb
sz118 to sz106
1 sb
I will round pips to the nearest multiple of 6
Battle of sz106
2 sb vs 1 DD, 1 TT
att
2 sb = 4 - 1 hit
def
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit
78% battle for Germany
Battle of sz109
1 sb, 1 fht vs 1 DD, 1 TT
att
1 sb, 1 fht = 5 - 1 hit
def
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit
88% battle fo Germany
I’ll lose the sb, as I didn’t lose one in sz106
Battle of sz111
1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 BB, 1 CR
R1
att
1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 13 - 2 hits
def
1 CR, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit
R2
att
1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 11 - 2 hits
def
1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit
90% battle for Germany
Battle of sz110
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac vs 1 DD, 1 BB
R1
att
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac = 12 - 2 hits
def
1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit
R2
att
1 fht, 2 tac = 10 - 2 hits
def
1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit
93% battle for Germany
Battle of sz112
1 CR, 1 BB, 1 fht vs 2 CR
att
1 CR, 1BB, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits
def
2 CR = 6 - 1 hit
96% battle for Germany
1 more move I forgot.
Pol to Yugo
1 tank
Battle of Yugo
5 inf, 3 tanks vs 5 inf
R1
att
5 inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits
def
5 inf = 10 - 2 hits
R2
att
3 inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits
def
3 inf = 6 - 1 hit
R3
att
2 inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits
def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit
98% battle for Germany
Battle of Nor Bor
1 inf, 1 art vs 1 inf
att
1 inf, 1 art = 4 - 1 hit
def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit
88% battle for Germany
What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?
What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?
Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).
What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?
Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).
Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect
Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht
R1
att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits
def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits
R2
att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits
def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits
R3
att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits
def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits
75% battle for Germany
what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.
Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fhtR1
att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hitsdef
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hitsR2
att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hitsdef
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hitsR3
att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hitsdef
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits75% battle for Germany
That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%
NCM
Ger to West Ger
6 inf, 4 art
South Ger to West Ger
4 inf
South Ger to Ger
1 art
sz113 to sz115
1 TT (load from Pol 2 inf to Fin)
Rom to Bulg
1 inf
Nor to Fin
2 inf
sz111 West Ger
1 tac, 1 bmb
sz110 to West Ger
2 tac
sz109 to sz112
1 fht
Place
sz112
1 CV, 1 TT, 1 sb
Collect
$64
What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?
Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).
Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect
If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself. Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds. And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet. With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%. And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.
-begin statistics lesson-
It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes. For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).
It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones. However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle. Each chance of success is fully and completely independent. You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success. The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.
