Sealion Version 1.0

[jim010]

sz113 to sz112
1 CR, 1 BB

Nor to sz111
1 fht

Ger to sz111
1 bmb

Holl Bel to sz109
1 fht

sz103 to sz110
1 sb

sz124 to sz111
1 sb

West Ger to sz111
1 tac

West Ger to sz112
1 fht

West Ger to sz110
1 fht, 2 tac

[jim010]

Breaks over.  I’ll finish later.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Are you going to roll dice?

[jim010]

No dice.  Only pips rounded.

[MaherC]

I feel like I’m in the movie mallrats and my name is Gill.

[jim010]

sz108 to sz109
1 sb

sz117 to sz106
1 sb

sz118 to sz106
1 sb

[jim010]

I will round pips to the nearest multiple of 6

[jim010]

Battle of sz106
2 sb vs 1 DD, 1 TT

att
2 sb = 4 - 1 hit

def
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

78% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of sz109
1 sb, 1 fht vs 1 DD, 1 TT

att
1 sb, 1 fht = 5 - 1 hit

def
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

88% battle fo Germany

I’ll lose the sb, as I didn’t lose one in sz106

[jim010]

Battle of sz111
1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 BB, 1 CR

R1

att
1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 13 - 2 hits

def
1 CR, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

R2

att
1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 11 - 2 hits

def
1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

90% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of sz110
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac vs 1 DD, 1 BB

R1

att
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac = 12 - 2 hits

def
1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

R2

att
1 fht, 2 tac = 10 - 2 hits

def
1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

93% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of sz112
1 CR, 1 BB, 1 fht vs 2 CR

att
1 CR, 1BB, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

def
2 CR = 6 - 1 hit

96% battle for Germany

[jim010]

1 more move I forgot.

Pol to Yugo
1 tank

Battle of Yugo
5 inf, 3 tanks vs 5 inf

R1

att
5 inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits

def
5 inf = 10 - 2 hits

R2

att
3 inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits

def
3 inf = 6 - 1 hit

R3

att
2 inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits

def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

98% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of Nor Bor
1 inf, 1 art vs 1 inf

att
1 inf, 1 art = 4 - 1 hit

def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

88% battle for Germany

[calvinhobbesliker]

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

[kcdzim]

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

[calvinhobbesliker]

@kcdzim:

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

[jim010]

Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

R1

att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

R2

att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

R3

att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

[munchie19]

what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@jim010:

Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

R1

att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

R2

att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

R3

att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%