Ok consider one thing:
if italy decides to attack the situation is 18 for the italy and 19 for the uk/french but there are high chances
that the carrier is damaged. If the carrier is damaged on the second round italian retreats and the fighters are lost since the south france is lost and there are no friendly territory in the range of one!
If you are going to lose the fighters on the second round you lose a lot of defensive power and even if you hurt the italian badly to force them not to continue the attack, however will be easy for the german air force knock out the remaining UK forces probably with few unit lost.
After you loose a lot of british force it will be hard to rebuilt.
that’s my opinion bye