Well, my group has tested out the plane concentration strategies and a few other things. The more games we play, the more we’re given to Kauf’s conclusions: A skilled Japanese player can only lose due to luck.
Our conclusions:
1) Airbases make it impossible for the US to sail West. If Japan leaves enough planes behind, America can’t break through. Japan can fly planes to the Carolines and stop the US from taking either. If the US decides to skip Truk and SZ7 and take an island, their entire navy will be incinerated in the counter assault.
From either Japan or Truk, with the inclusion of an airbase, their planes can strike the navy that took any island, move one sea zone away and land on a friendly island. There are simply too many islands around for the US to take them all in one turn to prevent the counterstrike. And if the US is throwing money away on sacrificial transports, Japan can afford to do the same.
2) Japan’s starting forces: are just too much for the Allies to counter. Simply put, Japan can throw just about everything towards India and still have enough to counter the US fleet. From turn 2 on Japan is buying 4+ Fighters per turn, and once India falls, they will stay well ahead of the American fleet in production. Plus, once the DEI are taken and there’s no other allied navy besides the US, the Japanese fleet doubles back east to reinforce.
3) India is screwed. It just doesn’t matter what they do. Whether Japan goes in full force or takes their time, there is nothing the US and ANZAC player can do about it. ANZAC needs an air base on WAUS to fly to India, and Japan can take that at will from the meager ANZAC forces should the Allies build one. America can’t get there at all before India falls, except perhaps with an odd bomber or two, and that won’t help much.
4) The Allies attack separately from one another. A concentrated Japanese force can withstand anything the separated UK or ANZAC player throw at it. The Allied combined airforce still has to attack piecemeal, and they’ll get destroyed by the Japanese in doing so. The stack of 8 fighters and 1 tac on Java? That could be deadly to a Japanese fleet……if only they could attack together. Instead they have to attack 5 and then 4.
5) The cost of attacking. Most units defend better than they attack, putting more pressure on the attacker to have better odds. It’s more cost effective to be on defense than on offense. The US needs to buy carriers with no attack value to get planes onto islands. For the same amount of IPCs, Japan gets an extra fighter and 6 IPCs.
6) The US can’t increase their income. None of the islands near them are worth anything that matter! Their income won’t grow at all unless they can somehow break through to the Chinese mainland.
The whole thing turns into a logic problem which can’t be solved:
o Due to airbases, the US needs overwhelming force to attack.
o However, it is more expensive to attack than to defend. The US needs to build up more forces than the Japanese so they can break through.
o But they can’t wait too long, or Japan will out produce them, so they must attack within X turns (before that happens).
o Yet X turns isn’t enough for the US starting forces +new units to overcome Japan’s left behind planes +new units.
o The US must attack prematurely and hope for awesome dice.
The other option is to ferry units around Australia, but lightly defended transports sent in waves around Australia won’t be able to bust through the starting Japanese fleet that waits in the DEI. There is no way to prevent Japan’s economy from ballooning past the US’s.