@ragnarok628:
germany has over 80% odds to win in anglo egypt round one anyway though, and in all my games that BB doesn’t make it past round 2 even without russian sub. so it still seems like whats gonna happen with the R1 sub is germany takes egypt anyway and then loses the BB to russia instead of UK or US. i still need help understanding why russia needs to take that upon herself to deal with the BB instead of focusing on survival/beating back german ground forces
The difference is you are getting the fleet R2 instead of UK2. Also, in most cases Russia will just lose the sub, so Allies lose a sub instead of a fighter (or 2) if they wait until UK2.
Take a look at the starting units in Africa. If G takes Egy G1, then UK counters Egy UK2 with 3 inf fig bmb, normally clearing it with 2 inf left over. Skip to G2. If Germany is allowed to use the bb/trn on G2, then they can land again in Egypt, or take Trj. Normally, they go to Egypt, and together with the units from Libya they will have 4 ground units, and typically 3 ground units survive.
Now, UK only has 1 inf plus 1 fig 1 bmb to counter Egy. But of course–in this scenario they can’t–since they need to use this air power to take out the fleet on UK2. That means the Afrikakorps will survive for a while and the tank will do some blitzting. Since UK has no ground forces except 1 inf from South Africa to oppose it, the Africa Korps can gradually move south towards South Africa, and Japan can use fighters to defend it from Allied air strafes.
Now if Russia takes care of the G fleet on R2, then Germany is denied its 2nd drop in Egypt, and consequently will only be able to counter Egy with the inf/art on Libya. On UK2, UK uses the fig + bmb + inf to take or clear Egy…and that’s it, the Afrika Korps is kaput. The battle for Africa is over on UK2, until the Japs arrive.
Is the gambit worth it over the long run? Who can tell? What I like about it is if Germany’s income is lower and UK’s income is higher, then that’s excellent news for Russia. If you finish Germany quickly in Africa, then it makes it harder for Japan to prop Germany up, since it can’t defend German possessions down there.