Even if it’s true that the number of axis attacks rnd1 affects balance in LL, I think this is not a major factor for the game balance. But there’s a possibility that the (ADS) bid needed in 41 +NO will be somewhat lower than with LL, if we compare AAR LL bids vs ADS bids, which is the same.
Lets do this gedankenexperiment, let’s assume ADS for first rnd battles. What battles will you not do in ADS which you would do in LL? For Germany I usually take all 3 TT’s on the eastern front which gives me the 2nd German NO. Sometimes I do the Kalia attack G1, but Egy seems better. So if I don’t do the Egy attack G1, or the attack on the UK BB, or the Kalia attack G1 then the battles would be like LL, less risky, more overkill.
For Japan there are many battles which are standard moves rnd1, especially in LL.
I usually attack Yunnan, Philippines, Kwantung, and 2 out of 3: Fukien, Hupeh and Suiyuan. Then the sea battles. Sz 53, sz 50, sz 35 and sz 56. So lets say I reduce the risk, skipping sz 56 helps a lot. Would this change the balance of the game? I think not.
If we assume LL, but I don’t do the battles which could go terribly wrong rnd1. What’s the difference? Would you challenge me for a 41 +NO, LL, NT and no bids if I do not do the most risky battles rnd1?
I think not. The axis bias is not dependent on Egy, or Kalia, sz 2, or the combination of sz 53 and sz 56.
And the bias is not dependent on no battles goes wrong rnd1 either. It helps alot I admit, but this is not the core issue of game balance in 41 +NO.
It’s as easy for axis to get the NOs in ADS as it is in LL. This assumes equal luck on both sides. The number of rnd1 attacks is not dependent on this. Even if axis don’t do any risky attacks rnd1, and reduce the total number of attacks, the axis bias is obvious. I’m not sure how big it is yet, it could be even less than in AAR, but the game is not balanced once you start analyzing AA50 in depth.
And what about all the players who use regular dice who also claims that axis are favored? You can’t just dismiss all the evidence which is available for the 41 scenario.
Unless someone can disprove what is pretty obvious, we can conclude as a fact that axis have the advantage in 41 with NOs.