My son threw some of these at me during our last game. I was the US. I split my navy in two and invaded 2 islands close to Japan. He threw 2 KK on each fleet and all 4 hit. He targeted my ACC’s and took them all!! I was able to keep the planes as they could land nearby but HOLY COW did that hurt! Now my x-ports & DD’s were basically unprotected and he cleaned them up on J’s next turn. That really sent me scrambling to buy new units and get them moving.
I’ve alway thought the KK attacks had a rather minimal effect and, until now, never worried too much about them. I certainly will not make that mistake again. Has anyone else had a simular experience regarding KK attacks?
Statistically, you suffered a tsunami of bad luck. You shouldn’t have lost more than 2 carriers, but these things happen. Even with the really bad luck, I bet you still won the game.
Lets see … (1/3)^4 = 1/81 ~ 0.0125 … 4 KK hits
… 4 x (2/3)(1/3)^3 = 8/81 ~ 0.100 … 3 KK hits
… 6 x (2/3)^2(1/3)^2 = 24/81 ~ 0.296 … 2 KK hits
… 4 x (2/3)^3*(1/3) = 32/81 ~ 0.395 … 1 KK hit
… (2/3)^4 = 16/81 ~ 0.198 … 0 KK hits
Kamikazies can really hurt at the wrong time, but they aren’t supposed to hurt like that.
Sometimes that just happens - recently I rolled for 8 inf in Russia (against 8 attacking German tanks) and while the attacker did great with 5 hits - I got all 8 with 1’s and 2’s…
Was cool. :mrgreen:
That’s not bad too.
8 Inf hits = (1/3)^8 = 1/6561 ~ 0.00015
7 Inf hits = 8 x (2/3) x (1/3)^7 = 16/6561 ~ 0.00244
6 Inf hits = 28 x (2/3)^2 x (1/3)^6 = 112/6561 ~ 0.01707
5 Inf hits = 56 x (2/3)^3 x (1/3)^5 = 448/6561 ~ 0.06828
4 Inf hits = 70 x (2/3)^4 x (1/3)^4 = 1120/6561 ~ 0.17071
3 Inf hits = 56 x (2/3)^5 x (1/3)^3 = 1792/6561 ~ 0.27313
2 Inf hits = 28 x (2/3)^6 x (1/3)^2 = 1792/6561 ~ 0.27313
1 Inf hit = 8 x (2/3)^7 x (1/3) = 1024/6561 ~ 0.15607
0 Inf hits = (2/3)^8 = 256/6561 ~ 0.03902
Your result was to kill 40 IPCs of armor with the predicted result that you should kill 13.333 IPCs of armor. This is quite a result because it is better than three standard deviations from the mean. As you can see from the first fraction, you should not roll this well for another 6560 combat rounds (do you think this might be about 30 games?). Actually that is an incorrect statement. Just because you did it, doesn’t have any effect on when it will happen next.
Your opponent didn’t do that bad either.
8 Armor hits = (1/2)^8 = 1/256 ~ 0.00391
7 Armor hits = 8 x (1/2)^7 x (1/2) = 8/256 ~ 0.03125
6 Armor hits = 28 x (1/2)^8 = 28/256 ~ 0.10938
5 Armor hits = 56 x (1/2)^8 = 56/256 ~ 0.21875
4 Armor hits = 70 x (1/2)^8 = 70/256 ~ 0.27343
3 Armor hits = 56 x (1/2)^8 = 56/256 ~ 0.21875
2 Armor hits = 28 x (1/2)^8 = 28/256 ~ 0.10937
1 Armor hit = 8 x (1/2)^8 = 8/256 ~ 0.03125
0 Armor hits = (1/2)^8 = 1/256 ~ 0.00391
He still got a 75th percentile result, which I’d take any day. He killed 15 IPCs of infantry with the par result being 12.0 IPCs. With 8 tanks going up against 8 infantry defending, I think the overall “par result” is to lose 5/6 tanks while killing all the infantry.
Even with the really bad luck, I bet you still won the game.
Good observation. I did win the game. At the point of the KK attacks, Japan was down to about 11 or 12 IPC pts.
Still, watching my son’s reaction to his good dice rolls was a roit! He was laughing as the 'ol man grumbled and put the ACC’s back in the storage bin. We really do have a great fun battling each other over the game. I treasure these moments as he is 12 years-old and time spent w/ Dad is becoming a premium. Get it while I can! Know what I mean?
Still, watching my son’s reaction to his good dice rolls was a roit! He was laughing as the 'ol man grumbled and put the ACC’s back in the storage bin. We really do have a great fun battling each other over the game. I treasure these moments as he is 12 years-old and time spent w/ Dad is becoming a premium. Get it while I can! Know what I mean?
Great Job Maddog!
+1
Oh yea, I know what you mean. My son is about that age and I use AA games to teach history and mathmatics to him. I bought some special AA dice and paint my pieces to keep him engaged. I am thinking of playing the Japanese and let him beat me up with the Allies just to keep it a bit of fun for both of us.
