• @DarthMaximus:

    Back when I was still attacking Ukr…  :wink:

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=9354.0

    No fair picking a game where I under-defended Tokyo!  Tokyo is irrelevant to the discussion at hand :-P
    (but I DID make you work for that one, and I DID use a German ARM to blitz to Archangel…  :evil: )


  • That was a funny game read. Most of it was a blur since I just scanned through it, but that dice reroll in the Pacific was a deathblow to the Japanese O_O

    Man how many carriers did Darth buy with the US? I thought I saw like a carrier every round for the first few rounds O_O?!

  • 2007 AAR League

    @trihero:

    That was a funny game read. Most of it was a blur since I just scanned through it, but that dice reroll in the Pacific was a deathblow to the Japanese O_O

    Man how many carriers did Darth buy with the US? I thought I saw like a carrier every round for the first few rounds O_O?!

    He built about 8 or 9 (plus the fighters to fill them) in the game I just played against him. Never encountered that before, didn’t know how to handle it, and finally goofed with my fleet positioning such that defeat became inevitable…


  • He built about 8 or 9 (plus the fighters to fill them) in the game I just played against him. Never encountered that before, didn’t know how to handle it, and finally goofed with my fleet positioning such that defeat became inevitable…

    O_O! Quick link to that game? And how would you deal with it now?

    Personally I wouldn’t use so many carriers, I mean one carrier can bring in like 4 fighters to a fight if you wanted to. But maybe it’s some insane new strategy!  :lol:

  • 2007 AAR League

    @trihero:

    He built about 8 or 9 (plus the fighters to fill them) in the game I just played against him. Never encountered that before, didn’t know how to handle it, and finally goofed with my fleet positioning such that defeat became inevitable…

    O_O! Quick link to that game? And how would you deal with it now?

    Personally I wouldn’t use so many carriers, I mean one carrier can bring in like 4 fighters to a fight if you wanted to. But maybe it’s some insane new strategy!  :lol:

    Okay I exaggerated - now that I check, he had 6 ACs in the Pacific by the end. Anyhow, here’s the link: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=10153.90

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Dealing with carriers just means you need to out position him and use submarines.

    Sub kill carrier.  Fighters go splash.

    Did this in a game once.  Sailed my subs right under his battleships, sank his aircraft carriers and submerged.  It was beautiful.

  • 2007 AAR League

    I built lots of subs, but not enough - wanted to keep producing some land units as well.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    THat’s how a KJF works.  You force Japan into chosing mainland or navy and when they pick one, you crush the other.  Yup.  Classic.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Back on topic to the Archangel blitz…

    Check out this map. Germany did the Arc blitz, and after R2, Russia collected $37.

    Here’s how it played out:

    Germany blitzed to Arc
    Ger left 1 Inf in Karelia

    UK took Karelia with 1 Inf, 2 Ftrs, 1 Bom and 1 BB. I only sent 1 Inf because if it died in the attack, Russia could still liberate with a tank blitz, and UK saves 1 Inf.

    Russia

    • With Karelia taken, Archangel is now protected, so I could take it with only 1 Inf and a stack of tanks - no fighters needed.
    • Kar. is already liberated, so no Rus. fighters needed for that either

    That left Ukr. and Belo each with 1 Ger Inf.

    • At first, I planned to attack each with 2 Inf 1 Ftr, but then changed my mind to just 1 Inf 1 Ftr. With 1 Inf 1 Ftr you have a 50% chance of taking the territory. Adding the inf closes some of that remaining 50% gap which is worth 1.5 IPCs, but then I sacrifice a 3 IPC unit for those improved odds.
      As it was, I got lucky and captured both Ukr. and Belo. I would have expected and been happy with just one of those.

    • Finally, I blitzed a tank to Norway, for +3 Income to Russia. It may be a net loss if Ger takes it out using a TRN + Ftrs, but I’ll consider that as helpful in that it will bleed more units off from the general Russian offensive.

    In addition to this, Japan attacked 6 Russian Inf in Bury with 4 Inf, 1 Arm and 4 Ftrs and 1 BB. I got lucky and survived with 4 Inf, killing 4 Inf 1 Arm. This left Manchuria empty so on Russia 2 I took Man with 1 Inf.

    Total Income for Russia after R2: 37 IPCs! Even without the Buryatia windfall, and if one of the Belo / Ukr attacks had failed, Russia would be at 30 or 31 IPCs. 1 Russian Inf is in Archangel where it will only be able to attack Karelia, but all the tanks in Archangel can still hit Ukraine or Belo next turn.

    In conclusion, I think that the Arc blitz has not really hampered Russia’s position. It amounted to a trade of 1 Arm for 1 Inf that is not even dead, just slightly out of position, and that will rejoin my main stack next turn along with a bunch of other reinforcements.

    [attachment deleted by admin]

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    A more realistic result is the Russian’s losing Buryatia and thus Russia would have collected 4 IPC less.  (-3 for Manchuria you should NOT have gotten, -1 for Buryatia that Japan SHOULD have gotten.)

    You’ve been lucky all game with the dice though.  98% attacker win rates with 70% attacker wins with A LOT OF UNITS LEFT are resulting in Attacker being completely destroyed with nearly no damage done to the defender.

    Hardly a definitive game to base your assertations on, especially after only 1 full game round.

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Ender:

    Total Income for Russia after R2: 37 IPCs! Even without the Buryatia windfall, and if one of the Belo / Ukr attacks had failed, Russia would be at 30 or 31 IPCs. 1 Russian Inf is in Archangel where it will only be able to attack Karelia, but all the tanks in Archangel can still hit Ukraine or Belo next turn.

    In conclusion, I think that the Arc blitz has not really hampered Russia’s position. It amounted to a trade of 1 Arm for 1 Inf that is not even dead, just slightly out of position, and that will rejoin my main stack next turn along with a bunch of other reinforcements.

    Note the highlighted part.

    “Lucky all game”? There’s been just one full round! Yes, I got lucky in Bury, but that’s not really relevant to the immediate situation on the German front. The fact remains that Russia now has Norway, Karelia, Archangel, West Russia, Belo and Ukraine. The only place I got lucky there was in taking both Belo and Ukr, as both had only a 50% chance.

    Where do you get your 98% attack rate?

    R1 - yes I had great dice but then I gave you the No Luck result instead to set up the Arc blitz under more reasonable circumstances.

    G1: You captured Belo, Karelia, Arc and Egypt, and killed the UK med BB without loss - no bad luck there.

    UK1:

    • Z59 my DD hit your TRN - no big surprise.
    • Z45 our subs killed each other - that’s equally good dice.
    • Egypt: your Arm killed one of my attacking Inf, that’s good for you
    • Karelia: my BB hit your Inf, not an unusual result, and it was dead anyway with 1 Inf 2 Ftrs 1 Bom attacking as well

    J1:

    • You killed my Z59 DD without loss (good luck)
    • You took China without loss (very good luck)
    • You failed to take Bury, attacking 6 Inf with 4 Inf 1 Arm 4 Ftrs - If you look at the numbers, if you play to preserve your fighters, I actually had about a 15% chance of surviving that attack - about the same as rolling 1/6, which happens quite often in this game.

    US1: there was no combat and thus no luck

    R2:
    Liberated Arc wol - not a big surprise with 1 Inf 6 Arm attacking
    Belo/Ukr - as I said above, each attack had a 50% chance, and I got a little lucky in making both.

    So all in all, the luck has been pretty even, at least as far as the German front is concerned. The only bad dice in this game anywhere have been in your Bury attack, the rest have all been average or good.

    And the fact remains that despite pretty normal luck, the Russian front is looking just fine for the Allies. But like you say, one round is a little early to comment.

    US1: there was no combat, so no dice

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    It is very relevant to the German front.  Manchuria and Buryatia would not be in your hands.  You’d be 4 IPC lower.  Also, Germany easily recovered from the pitiful advances of the Russian hoardes, and, because you had to use the British navy in SZ 4, you got England completely cut off from Europe before UK 2 resulting in the loss of all your new transports and a blocked Battleship meaning no more England landings for at least a turn.

    Now Russia’s going to have to spend tanks to advance or advance much more slowly.  Yes, they have 37 IPC this round due to bad luck to the Axis and good luck to Russia (they really are the only ones having luck, they just seem to be having it on both attack and defense, which compounds the issue.) Meanwhile England’s out of the game for 2 rounds (1 to clear a path to get more troops, and 1 to get them.) and America’s not even set up a shucking program.

    Russia is solo because the allies were forced into over extending.  They got lucky with the Russian defenses which means the allies still have a chance to win the game.


  • Is Jen whining about dice again???
    :evil:

    Jen…  NO ONE IS THAT UNLUCKY!

    The flaw is not in your dice, but in your strategy.  A single set of bad dice should NOT determine the outcome of a game (subsequent bad dice though, especially in the same geographic area) could be the end though…

  • 2007 AAR League

    There haven’t been many more Japanese dice in that area, because I haven’t allowed her to hit my units anywhere since then (unless she wants to try a suicide run against Sinkiang, I’m sure she’ll have lots of “bad dice” to complain about after that battle)

    If anything, the allies have had some bad luck - I lost 2 UK ftrs and 4 US Ftrs taking out the German fleet. Fortunately the allies now own the Atlantic after US3, the Med is empty, and UK owns ALL of Africa, the only extra forces that the UK used was 1 Inf and 1 TRN from NZ, and the Indian Ftr. Not a bad return on investment.

    But that’s not thanks to dice, that’s just because the Germans never landed any units there and moved their Med fleet into the open Ocean.

    Oh and India is again in UK hands, as it was only defended with 1 Jap Inf at the start of UK4.

    I usually feel lucky with the dice but I think that’s because I avoid situations where the dice can do really bad things to me. The one exception being the naval battles in our game, in which I had to bite the bullet because the German navy was really in my face. End result though even with some bad dice is that I now own the Atlantic, and the Baltic is now wide open with lots of Allied TRNs in range, forcing you to keep units back in Germany to fend off any 1-2 punch.

    Now, I won’t claim that this comes from the Arc blitz, since in retrospect my Russian tank blitz to Nor in R2 was just as much a waste (except it kept you from uniting your fleet by tempting you to land units in Nor), but I think I’m coming out ahead because I’m economizing better.

    Example: in G3, you defended 3 border territories with 3 Inf 1 Arm each. I strafed all three with favourable economic odds. I actually got luckier than I wanted to and ended up capturing two of the territories with a total loss of 4 Inf, with the result that I then lost net 4 Inf to a counter-strafe in Ukraine, but you on the other hand lost 8 Inf 2 Arm to my strafes with Russia. That diff of 2 Arm (10 IPCs) is a big deal, esp. when Russia is earning 28-31 IPCs each round, it really equalizes the income nicely with Germany’s 40., which has to defend against two other allies as well.

    So far, Russia, by playing “economically” has actually gained income from the starting position. Now after UK4 the allies have a beachhead and an almost-working shuck, and Allied income is 96 to Axis 70.

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Cmdr:

    It is very relevant to the German front.  Manchuria and Buryatia would not be in your hands.  You’d be 4 IPC lower.  Also, Germany easily recovered from the pitiful advances of the Russian hoardes, and, because you had to use the British navy in SZ 4, you got England completely cut off from Europe before UK 2 resulting in the loss of all your new transports and a blocked Battleship meaning no more England landings for at least a turn.

    Now Russia’s going to have to spend tanks to advance or advance much more slowly.  Yes, they have 37 IPC this round due to bad luck to the Axis and good luck to Russia (they really are the only ones having luck, they just seem to be having it on both attack and defense, which compounds the issue.) Meanwhile England’s out of the game for 2 rounds (1 to clear a path to get more troops, and 1 to get them.) and America’s not even set up a shucking program.

    England was only out for 1 round, because the UK rebuilt TRNs and in a 1-2 punch with the US cleared the path.

    Now, the only units that the UK lost that mattered were 2 Ftrs and 3 TRN, and for the US, 1 TRN 4 Ftrs. That’s 92 IPCs. None of the other naval units matter because the Pac and Indian fleets have now arrived and are sufficient to provide cover from the 4 remaining German air units (which frankly have enough work to do on the mainland now)

    Germany on the other hand has lost not only her entire starting navy (2 TRN 3 Sub 1 DD 1 BB, for 76 IPCs), but also 1 AC and 3 Ftrs which you expended in addition (another 46 IPCs). And the allies have not bought a single naval unit that isn’t a transport. UK and US each still have 1 BB and 1 AC, and that plus a bunch of TRNs and the odd sub and DD is more than enough to protect my shipping from a Luftwaffe that has lost half its fighters and is trying to trade 3 territories each round (Kar, Belo, Ukr)

    The US will be shucking at least 3 TRN loads in US4, and there’s nothing stopping it from getting more going now, with the Atlantic clear.

    @Cmdr:

    Russia is solo because the allies were forced into over extending.  They got lucky with the Russian defenses which means the allies still have a chance to win the game.

    I don’t see where the Allies have overextended. And from where I sit, looking at the fundamentals of the game, I’d have to feel generous to say the Axis still have a chance.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Sorry about all this blabbing about my and Jennifer’s game.

    Back on topic to the Archangel blitz:

    Having tested the move in a game, I report the following:

    1. On UK1, UK took Karelia, so Russia did not have to worry about that. This point is irrelevant anyway because Germany will take Karelia even if it does not blitz Arc.

    2. On R2, because Karelia is not next to a German stack, and is blocked by the UK controlled Karelia, Russia could send its tanks there. Those tanks are not needed anywhere else, because they are too valuable to send in to Belo or Ukr next to the big German stack there, as Russia does not have enough fodder to protect them yet.

    3. With all those tanks, only 1 Inf from Mos (which has nothing else to do) is needed as fodder to make sure that if the Ger tank hits, it doesn’t kill a tank. So it truly is a 100% chance to kill the tank (pretty much) and only a 50% chance of losing the Inf., so the net gain in this battle alone is +5 and +2 for the territory, -1.5 for the chance of losing an Inf, total +5.5, not bad.

    4. Here’s the key lesson learned that has not been discussed yet: on G2, Germany retakes Karelia; one effect of this is that the Inf in Archangel (if it lived) is NOT OUT OF POSITION, as it now borders a German territory.

    5. That leaves Russia to take Ukr and Belo. However, the Arch blitz has no effect on this, because none of the units used to retake Arc would be able to help with these objectives anyway. So Russia is not stretched any thinner than it would be if Arc was not blitzed.

    6. Finally, the tanks in Arc are not really out of position, since with their range they can still hit Ukr or Belo or reinforce Caucasus.

    Conclusion: Sending the German tank to Arc on G1 does not really gain the Germans anything positionally. The only gain is the +2 IPCs for the territory, and the 50% chance to kill an Inf (+1.5 IPCs), and there is a cost of an active tank unit (-5 IPCs).
    +3.5

    • 5
      = -1.5

    Summary: no positional advantage, and net loss of 1.5 IPCs. Not a huge deal, but a pointless loss of IPCs.


  • @Ender:

    Sorry about all this blabbing about my and Jennifer’s game.

    Back on topic to the Archangel blitz:

    Having tested the move in a game, I report the following:

    1. On UK1, UK took Karelia, so Russia did not have to worry about that. This point is irrelevant anyway because Germany will take Karelia even if it does not blitz Arc.

    IMHO you overkilled a bit with 1 btl, 1 bom, 2 fig, 1 inf vs 1 inf.  Sending the bomber to Ssinkiang threatens Japanese shipping, or you could send the bomber to Anglo-Egypt and land with the fighter you used to retake Anglo.  Or at least, I assume you used the fighter to retake Anglo, as I see that you retook it.  Well

    2. On R2, because Karelia is not next to a German stack, and is blocked by the UK controlled Karelia, Russia could send its tanks there. Those tanks are not needed anywhere else, because they are too valuable to send in to Belo or Ukr next to the big German stack there, as Russia does not have enough fodder to protect them yet.

    I disagree, and again I think you overkilled - if I remember the moves correctly.  If I remember correctly you committed 3+ tanks.  Tanks in West Russia increase the size of the defensive stack, increasing the cost of a German kitchen sink attack.  Tanks in Moscow give a credible threat to attack early Japanese holdings in Asia.

    3. With all those tanks, only 1 Inf from Mos (which has nothing else to do) is needed as fodder to make sure that if the Ger tank hits, it doesn’t kill a tank. So it truly is a 100% chance to kill the tank (pretty much) and only a 50% chance of losing the Inf., so the net gain in this battle alone is +5 and +2 for the territory, -1.5 for the chance of losing an Inf, total +5.5, not bad.

    4. Here’s the key lesson learned that has not been discussed yet: on G2, Germany retakes Karelia; one effect of this is that the Inf in Archangel (if it lived) is NOT OUT OF POSITION, as it now borders a German territory.

    You’re right, that point wasn’t discussed.  I straight out STATED that that was the case, and I was sob ignored.

    5. That leaves Russia to take Ukr and Belo. However, the Arch blitz has no effect on this, because none of the units used to retake Arc would be able to help with these objectives anyway. So Russia is not stretched any thinner than it would be if Arc was not blitzed.

    Well, if Russia’s TRADING Ukr and Belo.  If Russia opts to try to HOLD Ukr, then things change.  Note that IMHO trading is usually the correct move.

    6. Finally, the tanks in Arc are not really out of position, since with their range they can still hit Ukr or Belo or reinforce Caucasus.

    Conclusion: Sending the German tank to Arc on G1 does not really gain the Germans anything positionally. The only gain is the +2 IPCs for the territory, and the 50% chance to kill an Inf (+1.5 IPCs), and there is a cost of an active tank unit (-5 IPCs).
    +3.5

    • 5
      = -1.5

    Summary: no positional advantage, and net loss of 1.5 IPCs. Not a huge deal, but a pointless loss of IPCs.

    Gah, that’s what I’ve been sayin!

  • 2007 AAR League

    Good points, NPB.

    I do tend to go for overkill - I think that’s part of the reason my opponents tend to think I’m lucky with the dice.

    In this case, I really wanted to make sure that I’d kill that German Inf and be able to blitz a Russian tank to Nor. In retrospect, I wouldn’t do that again while Ger still has a Baltic TRN. So yeah I should have moved the Bomber further East.

    WRT the Arc attack, I moved 2 Russian Inf into Sink on R1, and I could see that Japan would not be able to take Sink anyway, so my tanks were not needed to provide that threat.  They were also less important in WR because Ger had retreated all but one Inf from Ukraine, so WRus was really not under any threat. In fact I was trading both Ukr and Belo anyway.


  • Previously I said that I would move my German tank to Arch. to put pressure on Russia.
    Now I changed my mind…. :-o
    I will not leave a Russian inf behind in Kalia either,
    no obvious reason, just feels right to stack WRU with all possible units.
    Saving one German tank is a minor detail, but many details throughout a game may have big impact
    in the end.

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Lucifer:

    Previously I said that I would move my German tank to Arch. to put pressure on Russia.
    Now I changed my mind…. :-o
    I will not leave a Russian inf behind in Kalia either,
    no obvious reason, just feels right to stack WRU with all possible units.
    Saving one German tank is a minor detail, but many details throughout a game may have big impact
    in the end.

    In order to learn, one must change one’s mind.  :-D :-D

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