The odds of the “Red October” strategy working (which i define as Russians sinking the Italian transport) breaks down as follows
1941
Russians with 3 subs - 15%
Russians with 4 subs - 42%
1941 (with 1st round Italian purchase of a destroyer)
Russians with 3 subs - 2%
Russians with 4 subs - 11%
1942
Russians with 3 subs & 1 fighter - 39%
Russians with 3 subs & 1 Bomber - 49%
Russians with 3 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 80%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 fighter - 70%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 Bomber - 78%
Russians with 4 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 94%
1942 (with German destroyer defending Italians or Italian 1st Round purchase of a destroyer)
Russians with 3 subs & 1 fighter - 13%
Russians with 3 subs & 1 Bomber - 17%
Russians with 3 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 49%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 fighter - 35%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 Bomber - 46%
Russians with 4 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 75%
1942 (with German destroyer defending Italians & Italian 1st round purchase of a destroyer)
Russians with 3 subs & 1 fighter - 3%
Russians with 3 subs & 1 Bomber - 4%
Russians with 3 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 23%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 fighter - 13%
Russians with 4 subs & 1 Bomber - 19%
Russians with 4 subs, 1 fighter, & 1 Bomber - 49%
To sum it up, the “Red October” strategy is only viable in 1942 and only if
- Germany does not destroy the Russian fighter in Karilia during G1
- Germany leaves it’s Mediterranean destroyer unguarded at the end of G1
- The allies can successfully sink the unguarded German Destroyer during Round 1.
3a) If the Russians attack it’s bomber cannot be destroyed.
- The Russians build 4 Submarines R1 (We assume that the Italians will build a destroyer during I1. in response to the Russian Naval build)
- Russians attack with 4 submarines, 1 fighter, & 1 bomber.
Chance of sucess if all these conditions are met: 75% with 2.41 Russian units left.