@a44bigdog:
So I suppose the Russians do nothing and just let you have Karelia?
By projecting your turn 2 assault on Karelia Russia can be well prepared to liberate it. They can have plenty of infantry staged in Archangel and 6 tanks purchased in round 1 ready to rip out of Russia.
Germany can hit Karelia with about 10 Infantry, 2 Artillery, and 7 Tanks, minus any units lost taking Baltic States (probably 1 Infantry), plus a Cruiser volley.
If they reinforce Karelia, Germany would have to fight through 9 Infantry, 1 Artillery, and 3 Tanks, before being counterattacked by 4 Infantry, 1 Artillery and 4 Tanks.
If Russia evacuated Karelia before hand and built only tanks, they would be able to counterattack with 13 Infantry, 2 Artillery, and 7 Tanks.
Outcome of Situation A: Germany kills Karelian force, survives with 2 Infantry, 2 Artillery, and 7 Tanks. Germany survives counterattack with 5-6 Tanks. Germany loses a net of 43-48 IPCs and 13-14 HP, Russia loses 82 IPCs and 22 HP.
Outcome of Situation B: Russia counterattacks successfully, but loses all but the newly built 6 Tanks. Germany loses 73 IPCs and 19 HP, Russia loses 52 IPCs and 16 HP. However, Germany will likely slaughter the Tank group with 6 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 2 Cruisers blasts, and some air support.
In either case, by the end of turn 2, Russia will have about 8 Infantry left that weren’t in or east of Evenki National Okrug, plus possibly that Tank group.
However, in order to do Situation B, they have at most 6 Infantry to defend Caucasus. Germany will simply divert their Bomber and a tank or two to capture it as well.
@a44bigdog:
What happens to the Kriegsmarine when the US shows up with a nice stack of bombers out of England on turn 4 or so?
They can switch out an Infantry+Cruiser for a second Carrier at some point, if need be.
Also, if the USA goes SBR on turn 4, they will be too little too late, while Italy and Japan run rampant. Japan and Italy are both capable of runaway expansion, Germany is not, so it makes sense for them to play more cautiously, drawing the attention of the Allies via their land/sea threat and buying time for Italy and Japan to expand. If done right, if the Allies don’t target Germany sufficiently, it can take 1 of the Capitals, if they do target it sufficiently, Italy and Japan will expand too much.