How to cut Germany's economy over half in three turns

@Imperious:

That was busted on BGG along time ago. In fact i was the guy whom it was first tried against and failed twice, with the guy latter claiming he had an “unstoppable axis move for Germany” and "comments like “didn’t they even playtest this”

Needless to say i put him in his place, but i have no idea why he still clings to that idea. I posted strategy maps on this but admit it’s just one way to do it, but not the best. I favor a more balanced strategy because it is easily countered.

While a blitz shouldn’t usually work when everyone has plaed the game a few times, I think the concept is useful.  Example:  If you think G1 can get by building all tanks, the Allies have to keep an Axis blitz option on the table and prepare for it, or they are toast.  It is useful to show it can be done (with no real expectations of doing it) if the allies ignore it/ get awful dice, in order to limit ally play options.

One of the big questions is “How Easy is it to Hold France”?

Early SBRs can slow the Axis war machine if America engages in them, but America also only has the two bombers on Round 1.  That’s 7 IPC usually.  Italy has 23 IPC after Round 1 and Germany has 45 IPC after Round 1.  I don’t see 7 IPC being a huge impact in comparison to the 68 IPC the Europeans have.  It’s barely more than 10%.

If America goes heavy bombers then they are also not going fleet (meaning Japan owns the Pacific and America only gets 1 NO, England none and Russia probably only 1 and Japan gets 3, Italy gets 2 and Germany gets 2.)  If America does not go fleet, then their SBR campaign is offset by the excess IPC the axis are pulling in that the Allies are not. (You need a lot of bombers to dry up the extra 25 IPC the axis will be pulling (possibly 30 IPC if Germany gets the 3rd NO as well) and make up for the cost of lost bombers AND on top of all that, do damage to the enemy.)

I just don’t see it being a winning move.

If a bomber does 1.5 IPC more damage than it costs to replace the bomber in the time it is expected the bomber to be shot down and the axis have 25 IPC in NOs MORE than the Allies (That is 35 IPC in NOs - Allies 10 IPC in NOs = 25 IPC in NOs in excess of the Allies) then it you would need 17 bombers to show a profit.  (16.67 to negate the extra income the Axis are getting and .23 to enter into positive territory.)

If you had 17 Bombers, doing 3.5 IPC each (assuming 3 are shot down by AA Guns before they can fire) you would have:

14 * 3.5 = 49 IPC in damage to the Axis.

Since this, invariably, means in Europe only, you are really limited to 32 IPC in maximum damage you can do.  (12 to Italy, 20 to Germany.)

To recap:

IF the allies do not go into the Pacific and focus on a bomber campaign you have the following:

Axis 7 to 8 NOs
Allies 2 NOs
Net Gain (Axis): +25 IPC

Maximal Damage to Axis Industry: 32 IPC (12 for Italy, 20 for Germany.)
Average Bomber Damage: 3.5 IPC
Average Damage to Bomber: 2 IPC
Net Benefit of Bombing Run: 1.5 IPC

To negate 25 IPC, the Allies need 25/1.5 = 16.67 Bombers
Most likely scenario of 17 Bombers attacking in SBR: 3 Bombers shot down to AA Fire
17 Bombers - 3 Bombers lost to AA Guns = 14 Bombers left
14 Bombers, doing an average of 3.5 IPC each = 49 IPC in combined damage

Maximum Damage Italy/Germany can take: 32 IPC.  Damage from Bombers: 49 IPC.  17 IPC in bomber damage wasted.

apperently, i’m the only not-risky guy :-)
i prefer killing british destroyer east of england with sub and cruiser
2 subs, 1 fighter and 1 bomber to sz 12
take out all 3 eastern europe countries
hold france

doubting wether attack egypt or not.
if you do, sz 12 is more risky without bomber, but perhaps still acceptable?

Nah, axis-roll’s idea of 3 trans, 1 AC, 1 inf, 1 arm is better and what i’m  using now.

hm i was talking about an italian complex in egypt, bought on IT2 ;)  here is what happend.

in a KIF game, G1 took egypt. so yes axis did get italy its 2nd NO and 20+ IPC for one or two rounds but it dindt help. IT was SBRed so heavily there was no point in repairing factory damage. he was basically down to purtchasing 2-3 inf a turn… and with italian navy sunk at round 4 or 5 only a defesive tool for germany ( africa retaken by allies at that point.)

so we have come to the conclusion that italy really needs an IC in egypt to be of any help to germany.  by the time allies have taken egypt and the IC , japan will be there to enter land war against US in africa. an IC really commits one of UK/US to really fight for africa or UK  goes under 20 IPC… this gains time for japan to reach the european theatre, this takes pressure of germany.

if G1 takes egypt, italy can only shuffle about 6 -10 units over to africa before his navy is sunk. plus he cant really produce in italy cuz he needs to repair factory damage.

@Nix:

Norway is very difficult to take back if lost.  The Allies could take it and keep it.

But 2 rtrn, and ac g1, then it will be hard for Brits to hold norway.

So you’d hold it (maybe - UK can build more planes in response), but this is becoming a very costly endeavor.  That’s 41 IPCs worth of income for the IC and ships.

You’re pitting Germany’s income more directly against the UK’s, a fight which Germany could potentially win, except that Russia is going to have a big edge in the Eastern Front.