@Cmdr:
Not saying it’s unwinnable by the allies by any stretch. Just saying the allies have GOT to keep in mind the first round loss to the axis and have GOT to endeavor to prevent it. (That might be a British landing in Karelia to liberate it on Round 1, or dragging extra infantry to India with the transport in SZ 35 instead of doing something else with it.)
Yes, if the allies have already lost 2 VC’s on G1, they BETTER be smart enough to realize they need to hold either India or Australia.
Again, doofus Allied play will not force the rules to be changed.
Yes, but how do you propose they secure India or Hawaii on UK 1?
They cannot use American or Russian forces at this time, since Russia has already gone, and Japan still needs to go before America.
With that in mind, a suicide attack on India and Hawaii is winnable in well over 85% of the time (each, obviously winning both is less probable around 73% give or take.) Still, that’s a 3 in 4 chance to win before America’s turn.
So, honestly, the ONLY way to stop this is to make sure you lose ONLY Karelia or Caucasus at the end of Russia’s turn. Losing both is not really an option since there’s almost nothing that the allies can do from that point to stop the Axis from winning short of hoping the dice gods shine benevolent love and devotion upon them. (At which time, the Axis are probably over extended, IMHO.)
My dice sim gives only a 67% chance of taking Hawaii
and if the UK player can not take back karelia, they could take RAF and add another FTR to India, giving a Japanese suicide attack of 2 inf, 4 ftr, bmr against 4 inf, 2 ftr, aaa.
My dice sim gives only 41% of that happening.
so 67% * 41% (winning both) looks pretty long shot to me (28%)
Again, doofus Allied play will not cause the rules to be changed.
Yea, they COULD hold by sacrificing their National Advantages and position on the board to do it.
Japan does not have to sacrifice anything to make a viable threat. (I have 73% in Hawaii with 2 Inf, Arm, Fig vs 2 Inf, Fig using Frood, 87% with 4 Fighters, Bomber and 2 infantry, higher if the transport in SZ 59 is not lost because you can use a battleship and two more infantry.)
@Cmdr:
Yea, they COULD hold by sacrificing their National Advantages and position on the board to do it.
Japan does not have to sacrifice anything to make a viable threat. (I have 73% in Hawaii with 2 Inf, Arm, Fig vs 2 Inf, Fig using Frood, 87% with 4 Fighters, Bomber and 2 infantry, higher if the transport in SZ 59 is not lost because you can use a battleship and two more infantry.)
Wouldn’t ‘sacrificing’ ONE NA be worth continuing the game? (as if RAF is a ‘wasted’ NA selection).
Also, the allies should never be is such a position, the allies should never lose Caucasus on round 1. So the allies already have already sacrificed their board position prior to UK1 if Germany will retain 5 VCs by end of UK’s turn.
I think you are not using Frood correctly. Do you have it marked that there is an AA gun in India and that 1 inf must survive (you have to take the land you know)
My test at Frood confirms my dic sims value of only 41% chance of winning.
I also confirmed a 67% chance of the Hawaii win too via Frood.
Also, no way that the extra 2 units can make it even if the DD fails to sink the sz59 tpt since a UK a/c can always park itself in sz36 UK1, blocking the tpt’s route to india.
I have 1 ground unit must survive and AA Activated.
Only thing that DRAMATICALLY alters the results, and is a move that does NOT force you into a strategy with England is to take Radar. Now you can expect to lose 33-66% of your aircraft instead of 16-33%.
Yeah radar is so powerful.
Besides end game move, when would you ever bring air units to a radar territory?
What NAs did Germany take in this game where they are sucking so badly?
Afrika Korps and 88’s
Was the US counter on the Japanese fleet lucky?
If you call mutual destruction lucky, yeah.
US sub fled Pearl after going undetected. Pearl scored two hits, US counter took out the rest, but all US forces were also killed (fleet, plus 2 figs/bom)
What did Japan have in SZ52?
Everything that could reach except E. Indies fleet…lost sub to Brit sub, tran to Pearl, and BB, Car, Dest, 2 Figs to the counter.
This was AFTER Japan had selected Yamato BBs. Japans fleet consisted of 2 BB, 1 Car after 1 Rd.
What did Japan do after the US counter killed their Hawaiin navy?
Focused on Asian expansion with their Rd 1 IC, doing a fair job. Took China/Sink and India early, and has been a royal pain in the Indian Ocean. Took him way too long to get to work in the South Pacific, mostly due to American subs and heavy bombers forcing a fleet rebuild. Also too tank heavy on the mainland.
The Axis lacked enough infantry all game long, really.
Britains first turn was stellar, took out tranny, sub, and took Borneo and New Guinea. E. Indies counter at Borneo lost a fig as well!
You are playing with HB’s only carrying 1 inf in NCM, right?
Whoops! :lol:
@Cmdr:
Rockets can be countered with Jet Fighters. Not well, mind you, but it can. I think in this case, it would have been wise for Japan to fire off fighters with Jet abilities to Europe ASAP with Germany protecting her fighter stash and getting Jet Fighters (Shared tech) as well.
This would shield some, or all, of the allied rocket attacks.
Actually, this was done, but it wasn’t very effective…probably saved against 1 out of 4 Rockets, but it wasn’t enough to reduce the drain on IPCs to the point where Germany could replace his losses.
That said, a favorite tactic of mine, with an adoption of a Bean tactic to make it even wickeder, is:
America gets Rockets, England and Russia follow with shared tech
America gets Combined Arms and England gets it too
America gets Heavy Bombers and England gets it tooNow, with a large amount of Rockets and Bombers and a nice fleet of destroyers to bombard, you can potentially reduce Germany to negative incomes. (0 IPC left after the economic attacks + units lost in bombardments.)
I’ve tried going heavy hardware with Britain. Get Radar, then roll for Combined Arms. Your fleet is relatively safe from air attack, then just crank out DDs. Possibly even give Britain 2 NAs and pick Lend Lease so he can convert American DDs as well.
Haven’t thought to couple it with Rockets/Bombers though. I find that even with Escorts (another tech), Strat bombing is still too risky. I much prefer paratroops or just using the heavy bombers in fights
I’d still like to hear a comment on my original post regarding Russia.
I think Rome actually ought to be the real target of a Russian advance, provided UK/US don’t get there first. If the German Med fleet can be sunk early, I feel that the route of UKR-BAL-SEU is far easier for Russia to advance along than any WRU-EEU variation.
I found that the German player didn’t really know what I was up to when I didn’t advance on E Europe to go toe-to-toe with his main force. When I went into Balkans, he suddenly had threats on both factories, and due to rockets had no money to effectively counter without ceding almost all of his starting territory.
Russia collected 42 IPCs at one point…
…oh, my game ended BTW, Germany retook Italy, US landed in force in W Europe, and Russia took Italy again. We won via VCs at the end of that round.
@Cmdr:
I have 1 ground unit must survive and AA Activated.
Only thing that DRAMATICALLY alters the results, and is a move that does NOT force you into a strategy with England is to take Radar. Now you can expect to lose 33-66% of your aircraft instead of 16-33%.
In this case, I would rather have the extra unit @ 4 as opposed to an AAA gun shooting at a 2 that only fires once.
I have confirmed my numbers on two dice sims.
I still maintain you are not using Frood correctly for your india battle.
How about a little LL quick computation:
I would guess that Japan will lose 1 plane (5/6 aa shots).
so that’s 2 inf, 3 ftr, bmr = 2, R3 (give 3)
Defense 4 inf, 2 ftr = 2, R4 (give 3)
Leaves Rd2
inf, ftr, bmr = 1 R2 (generously give 2)
inf, 2 ftr = 1 R4 (give 2)
Leaves Rd3
inf on a ftr
Doesn’t look too good via LL for Japan
I would still take these odds as the Allies if the Axis wanted to be that desperate for a round 1 victory.
If Japan did win both India and Hawaii….
The US might get lucky themselves, taking out the Japanese navy US1 and take Marines to get back Hawaii as their long shot to save the game.
Yeah radar is so powerful.
Besides end game move, when would you ever bring air units to a radar territory?
When I want too. AA Guns don’t scare me.
And if they did, just get Jets and become almost immune. (Not immune to radar, but it negates it bringing it back to normal.)
