N00b school: Pearl Heavy v. Pearl Light

@ponef In regards to what? This thread kind of wound up diverting itself in like 3 different directions:

Whether UK should retake Egypt B1 Vs. send the FTR from the India Carrier over to the US Pearl Harbor Fleet. Whether Japan should attack the Pearl Harbor Fleet, the UK India Fleet, or both on J1. Whether UK should attack Borneo B1 or not.

The answer to basically all of these boiled down to some combination of “it depends on how the dice went G1” and “are you playing under WBC Rules or not”. Seeing as WBC no longer runs tournaments for Revised (or any A&A, for that matter), we’re left to assume all games being played will be OOB rules (or at least LHTR), in which case Egypt suddenly becomes much less of a priority in the grand scheme of things.

Personally, I got to try the strategy out at the 2018 WBC in one of my games. It worked well for me, as Japan was routinely baited into attacking the USN, losing the TT and the DD in the process. This allowed me to wipe out the remaining IJN Fleet A1 (Bomber from East USA + FTR from West USA + Navy from US West Coast + FTR from Hawaii). This crippled the IJN and let me rapidly come to dominate the Pacific.

If you like playing with NAs and picking them to suit your strategy, give Axis and Allies Revised Enhanced (commonly abbreviated as AARe) a try. It uses National Advantages as an important part of core play, not just an optional rule. They’re considered well-balanced after several years of development and play-testing.

It appears I can’t post links, but you’ll find the sticky in the House Rules section on this forum.

Have fun.

it is well known that the expected value for damage on an SBR is 3.5 IPCs (given the bomber survives AA fire and given the territory is 6 IPCs or more).  there are a few posts taking a stab at the distribution for heavy bombers in LHTR, but no one has formulated it correctly.  the work below shows the average SBR damage is 5.472 IPCs per heavy bomber.

in LHTR, heavy bombers roll 2 dice, take the max, add one, limit to the territory value, and that’s the IPC damage inflicted.

let A and B be independent random variables corresponding to the two dice rolled.  they are distributed as:
P(A=a) ={ 1/6  a=1,2,3,4,5,6
        { 0    otherwise

P(B=b) ={ 1/6  b=1,2,3,4,5,6
        { 0    otherwise

let C be the derived random variable defined as:
C = max(A,B) + 1

Theorem: C is distributed as:
P(C=c) ={  1/36    c=2
        {  3/36    c=3
        {  5/36    c=4
        {  7/36    c=5
        {  9/36    c=6
        { 11/36    c=7
        { 0        otherwise

Proof:
note: <= is the less-than-or-equal-to operator
note: E is the summation operator
P( C<=c ) = P( max(A,B)+1 <= c )

6
      = E  P( max(A,b)+1 <= c | B=b ) P(B=b)
          b=1

6
      = E  P( max(A,b) <= c-1 ) P(B=b)
          b=1

c-1
      = 1/6 * E  P( A <= c-1 )      c<=7
                b=1

c-1 c-1
      = 1/6 * E  E  P(A=a)          c<=7
                b=1 a=1

c-1 c-1
      = 1/36 * E  E  1              c<=7
                  b=1 a=1

= 1/36 * (c-1)^2              c<=7

and
P(C=c) = P(C<=c) - P(C<=c-1)
      ={  1/36    c=2
        {  3/36    c=3
        {  5/36    c=4
        {  7/36    c=5
        {  9/36    c=6
        { 11/36    c=7
        { 0        otherwise

Analysis:
note: E is the expectation operator
so, if one were heavy SBR’ing a 7 (or more) territory, the expected damage is:
E© = 21/36 + 33/36 + 45/36 + 57/36 + 69/36 + 711/36 = 197/36 = 5.472 IPC

so is the extra ~2 IPC per bomber worth the investment?  i’d like to know what other analysts think now that i’ve quantified the difference.

@nuno:

@ncscswitch:

In LL, you end up with Agent Smith’s who have years of work with sims to lock down specific strats that always work.

Once again ncscswitch couldn’t pass an opportunity to bait me…

Not-so-welcome back Agent Smith.  Glad you finally publicly admitted who you are, now we do not have to pussy foot around with you any longer.

I see you have not changed in the slightest… still all talk and bluster, with absolutely NO substance.  One of those unfortunate souls who refuses to put up or shut up.

@nuno:

Now go entertain yourself censoring/banning me, like you love so much to do.

Actually, you are the only one who is working at getting you banned.  You already expounded on how you were banned from another gaming site.  And you were previously banned in several of your other incarnations from this site.  Eventually you may grow up enough to figure out that it is not the entire A&A gaming world that is out to get you, but that you are just an asshole and that no one wants to have to put up with your shit.

How does US counter Japan’s Pearl?

Simple answer:  KGF.

If you really want to go KJF, you either go Ssinkiang and Indian ICs, or you build Pacfleet on US1 threatening attack on Pearl US2 (Japan shouldn’t be strong enough to wipe out the US2 fleet), or you can try Alaska transport chain.  Buncha things you can do really.  I note you already mentioned the LRA option.

I think we could probably devote a whole board to the sub rules. I think in Classic (bot many games of Classic under the belt went to that backwards via Europe) subs could come into a zone, shoot, and leave without being shot at. Not sure on that though.

Our problem was we were not conducting opening fire every round that subs were still on the battle board. We would have opening shots then treat them just like any other naval units.

The sub rules are different in all four versions of the game with subs that much I’m very clear on. The sub rules for Revised I’m very clear on because I think they are the cleanest.

sure, I’d play ya IRL.  But I’m in NYC and you’re around Chicago, I think, yes?

OH wellz, what can ya do?

Thanks man - that does help!