Bean, you are missing 1 element in that calculation… BUILD LIMIT
If the Allies are hammering with 16 divisions a turn, plus BB shot, anything better then 1:2 advantage Axis means that Berlin needs more forces for defense than they can build there.
But it isn’t any better than 1:2 unless you get lucky. As for build limit, move the units you built in Southern to the capital. It’s not like you’re limited to solely the 10 units you build in Germany; you’ve been building in Southern. And 4 inf 4 arm 1 bb shot only takes out 3.2 units if the German defenses are enough to eliminate 8 units in one round, I was being generous in assuming 4 units.
And the UK and US can build up a pretty big backlog of forces in the first several rounds if they play it right so that they do not have build limit issues for several turns…
Yeah, so keep upping the backlog and lock Germany down without engaging in a bad trade of units. I’d rather not use my units at a 2:1 ratio, and that’s even worse if you look at the IPC cost since it’s half inf half tanks for just inf. In the long run you’re looking at losing 64 IPCs (8 inf 8 arm) to kill 7 inf, which is 21 IPCs worth (I’m rounding 6.4 units up). That means Germany is only spending 21 IPCs to keep both UK and US at bay, with anything additional being used to simply trade with the Russians. That means Germany could easily survive on just their core West/South/Germany which is 22 IPCs with the UK/US making no progress whatsoever. And it usually takes a long while before that happens, which means Germany is also building up its own additional backlog of units to trade with.
Something doesn’t smell right, or there is something else I’m not considering.
Germany has to give SOMEWHERE with that kind of repeated pounding. Then the Allies just change targets to the newly weakened area (or keep going and keep bleeding Germany dry…)
Germany has to give somewhere if you keep piling up the units and reduce them to their core territories. They may not have to give anywhere if all you do is kill 7 inf a turn at the cost of 8 inf 8 arm.
Also to try to convince you if you look at TUV as one indicator of success, the Allies will be burning their net difference by 40 per turn in suiciding on Berlin. That’s not very good, and soon the Axis have a higher TUV. All it takes then is more economy which Japan should easily accomplish in Asia and Africa, and you can sign off your victory.