Bad dice throwers, chop their hands off!!!

@bigchris:

@gnasape:

Thanks bigchris, what if we assume that the dice rolls of the attacker and defenders are two separate events?

16 rolls for attacker, 7 rolls for defender.

sure, that’s fine.  as long as you are separating the rolls based on some arbitrary labeling and not based on their values, you can test any group/sub-group you like.

Ho: the dice are uniformly distributed
Ha: the dice are not uniformly distributed

Attacker: 6,5,6,5,4,6,5,6,6,4,3,5,4,6,3,6
histogram for entire sequence (16 rolls total)
6s: 6666666
5s: 5555
4s: 444
3s: 33
2s:
1s:

pearson chi-square test:
with 16 rolls, we expect 16/6=2.67 rolls in each bin according to Ho.
(7 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(4 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(3 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(2 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(0 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(0 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 = 13.25

chi-square value = 13.25
degrees-of-freedom = 5
Probability (One-Tailed): 0.0211

that is, for the attacker, if Ho is in fact true, the probability of getting results as or more extreme than these is 0.0211.  These data are sufficient evidence (at the 5% level) to reject Ho and adopt Ha.

Defender: 2,2,1,3,4,2,1
histogram for entire sequence (7 rolls total)
6s:
5s:
4s: 4
3s: 3
2s: 222
1s: 11

pearson chi-square test:
with 7 rolls, we expect 7/6=1.17 rolls in each bin according to Ho.
(0 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(0 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(1 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(1 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(3 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(2 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 = 5.857

chi-square value = 5.857
degrees-of-freedom = 5
Probability (One-Tailed): 0.3204

that is, for the defender, if Ho is in fact true, the probability of getting results as or more extreme than these is 0.3204.  this is insufficient evidence to reject Ho.  therefore, we do not reject Ho.

Thanks, I am basing it as usually the attacker’s dice roll is submitted first than defender.

Maybe I need to recall Rommel from Africa and have him and the 7th Armoured division come back and hide in plain sight in Berlin. Maybe scare off the Allies for a while!  :lol:

Was the paper arguing that this is true for the first round of combat, and where smart attackers know when to call it off?  I didn’t quite follow the paper since the whole Mr T thing was distracting.

Intuitively I’d guess that the size of bad luck depends mostly on force composition.  If the attacker uses planes, sure they can lose big.  If the defender has planes, they can lose big too.  Defenders can also lose really big if you take their capital (or to a lesser extent if you take WEU or SEU).

For single round combats, most of the time attackers can retreat if they see their luck going bad after the first round - and that makes a huge difference.

@U-505:

It’s not. Let Germany do it. It costs the Allies less if they attack after the merger than if they try to block it because Germany’s air support makes any attempt to block a big loss for the UK. My purchase with the Baltic CV build is always 3 fighters for the UK and stack with the US fleet in sz8. If you are concerned about Germany attacking that fleet with the sz13 fleet+aircraft then you can block it with the Russian sub to save UK/US units for the attack on the German fleet if they combine.

Mm.  Excellent, that’s what I often do as well.

If Germany unites its fleet, Germany can’t stay off the coast of Western Europe for long, because additional Allied reinforcements will easily kill the German fleet.  The Germans either have to build an IC at Western Europe for immediate reinforcement (which uses a lotta IPCs, especially with added German naval/air builds), or the Germans have to go north or south.  If the Germans go south, they get Africa and prevent the Allies from dumping from E. Canada to Algeria.  But if the Germans go south, the Allies can feed infantry into Archangel, which means a really powerful defense at Russia.  If the Germans go north, the Allies get Africa as described above.

@Gamer:

@ncscswitch:

It would also skew the hell out of Europe.

Imagine Germany’s 6 FIGs and BOM backed up by a large stack of INF…  Throw in an ARM or seven…

Can you say “steamroll” anyone?

I prefer baked rolls.

@ncscswitch:

GOOD players can adapt, unless the dice go completely rancid (two back to back force decimations in Ukraine on R1 and G1 comes to mind…)   :wink:

even if its ransid, even if you loose that game,  you still had a great chance to improve your play, with situation that is more difficult there is a bigger chance of improving the play since you have to pull out some new solutions or simply outsmart your opponent :wink:

i agree with you folk, low luck isnt that good as it seems, axis and allies isnt chess, its axis and allies :wink:

And us old AD&D players who have more d6 than you can shake a stick at…

It has been 6 years since I last played D&D, and right now, within 30 seconds, I could lay my hands on enough D6 to designate a specific die for every single unit in battle… including each INF having its own die!  100th level fireballs :-P

Well Zooey, I have the next two games already spoken for… but I can answer your question about an online dicey (thanks to others here)

For Classic A&A:
http://aamcbunker.net/other/login.html

For Revised:
http://www.daak.de/indexe.php?sprache=e

For the Daak site, you need to sign up for free membership, then you can access their diceserver

I used the first site in my game with Darth, and the second site in my two wins against Ezto and Tri :-)

Obviously, right now I LOVE the Daak server :-D