L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff

gamerman01

What?? Didn’t move the planned DD at South Africa, caught it now. I must be shaken up from Z97

gamerman01

Oh, and the edit of the fighter in the Mediterranean was necessary because Triple A must have removed my fighter with 2 movement left instead of the one from Gibraltar that had none.

elche

Yes, sz97 was hard again, now for me.
Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 fighter; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 96 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 95 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 95 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Tobruk to Alexandria
              Italians take Alexandria from British
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tobruk to Tunisia
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Libya to Tunisia
        1 infantry moved from Italian Somaliland to Kenya
              Italians take Kenya from British
        2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 95 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 95 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Gibraltar
        Battle in 96 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 cruiser
                Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 96 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 cruiser owned by the British lost in 96 Sea Zone
            Italians win, taking Gibraltar from British with 1 fighter and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
            Casualties for British: 1 cruiser
        Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Italians attack with 1 armour
            French defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the French lost in Normandy Bordeaux
            Italians win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from French with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for French: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in 97 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 bomber, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
            British defend with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine
                Italians roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Italians, 1 cruiser owned by the Italians and 1 fighter owned by the Italians lost in 97 Sea Zone
            1 bomber owned by the Italians retreated
            British win with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -30
            Casualties for Italians: 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
        Battle in Tunisia
            Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            French defend with 1 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Tunisia, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 infantry in Tunisia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the French and 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Tunisia
            Italians win, taking Tunisia from French with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from 96 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        1 bomber moved from 97 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        1 armour moved from Albania to Romania
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        1 fighter placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,4,1,3
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 72 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6
        Italians collect 9 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 9 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

French regular : -0,33
Italians regular : -0,67
British regular : 2,00

ita1-2.tsvg

gamerman01

You captured Normandy with a tank, and wiped out my cruiser in 96 without a shot back? Sick!

gamerman01

Oh, but a 0/4 and 3/3 in 97, that is crazy. What a wacky turn. Are the Germans afraid to air-strike 97 now I wonder? :hushed:

gamerman01

And that’s Vichy? On a 14% chance?

OK I totally forgot about Vichy once again and got absolutely ambushed in an extremely dramatic way, but why in the WORLD didn’t you take at least 2 air at Normandy?

Great luck in 97 certainly helps a lot, BUT
I’ll hold my tongue now.

gamerman01

I should have learned from the last time, I think it was a close call, but I didn’t.

gamerman01

With that result in 97 I’ll just have to pretend you sent those 2 air at Normandy. That works for me.

gamerman01

Here’s French 1, what’s left of them.

F1.tsvg

gamerman01

Change of subject -
I think I found that the Triple A battle calculator is not doing AAA guns correctly.

For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

That can’t be right. The defender should have a better chance with 2 AA than 2 infantry because in the first round of battle, the 2 defending units are 99.9% chance to be destroyed.
But 2 AAA has 6 points of defense power while 2 infantry only has 4. Furthermore, the AAA of course is taking down planes and those planes never even get to roll, while any defending infantry hits would be destroying attacking infantry only after the attacking infantry roll. Yes, that’s way off. I’ll do more testing.

gamerman01

A simpler one.

3 INF, 3 FTR v 5 INF
Triple A says 82/16

v 4 INF, 1 AA
Triple A says 88/10

No wonder some people undervalue AA.
A different calculator says 73/25, which is much different than 88/10.
Of course the AA gun instead of the infantry in this example would be better - 3 separate rolls of 16.7% chance directly at planes that are destroyed immediately (and could hit all 3), vs 1 roll of 33% chance that will hit 1 infantry after the infantry has fired. The infantry is almost certain to be killed in one round, so will not roll again.

Pretty big weakness of the Triple A calculator there. I’ll test a big German/Russian battle…

gamerman01

Uh oh. I think I found a big problem.

My Triple A calculator says that if you attack 40 AAA and 1 infantry with 120 bombers, you will only lose 1/3 of one bomber (for the infantry roll).

My calculator isn’t rolling for AAA AT ALL in making the calculations. Can you tell if you have the same problem?

(French move is posted below)

gamerman01

OK, I don’t know, but sometimes my calculator is working correctly with AA and most times it’s ignoring the AA roll entirely. You should test yours out. You can just do X number of bombers against X number of AA and see if it’s right.

I was doing calcs on Java and the engine said I had a better defense with 2 infantry than with infantry, AA, but that’s definitely wrong.

elche

Hi Gamerman,

sorry for delay. A lot of work last days.
I tried out bc with your excamples.

First fight.
For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

I agree first round 47/50 but after I change 2 inf into 2 AA my highest result for attacker was 42/58 and average after 30 times is under 40760.

elche

The same for next fight.
3 INF, 3 FTR v 5 INF
Triple A says 82/16

v 4 INF, 1 AA
Triple A says 88/10

I agree first result 82/16 but after switch inf into AA is my result in average 75/25

Did we use different bc ?

elche

Last fight
if you attack 40 AAA and 1 infantry with 120 bombers, you will only lose 1/3 of one bomber (for the infantry roll).

If I try , I will lose every time between 20-21 bomber.( is average with 120 AAGun shots) + 1 for inf. And is only 1 round
Maybe something wrong with the configuration of bc.

elche

You write: I was doing calcs on Java and the engine said I had a better defense with 2 infantry than with infantry, AA, but that’s definitely wrong.
You are definitely right with this.

elche

The results from my bc I think are right. I proof it on paper and its right.

elche

I tried the move with italian tank and most times with bomber or fig the last 5-6 games and never works. A very good player explains me thats more important to take France with all units and its better to play non-Vichy game. After you tell me that, I try this italian move. If I look on the map now I like what I see with the french :blush:
Did you scramble sz109 ?
cob-ger2- (3).tsvg

gamerman01

@elche said in L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff:

Hi Gamerman,

sorry for delay. A lot of work last days.
I tried out bc with your excamples.

No problem, I was just wondering if I buried my own file and you didn’t know it was your turn. All good.

First fight.
For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

I agree first round 47/50 but after I change 2 inf into 2 AA my highest result for attacker was 42/58 and average after 30 times is under 40760.

Thank you! So I’m not the only one with a Triple A Calc that sometimes doesn’t even count the AA shots at all. That’s something we need to be careful with in the future.

L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff

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