What should UK do with India?

I’m going over the numbers again and again, and every time India seems like a money/time sink that ends up getting the allies no where.

Say the RUS1 FTR from Moscow goes to Egypt.  Say the G1 BB goes to SZ14, and the Bomber goes to SZ17.  Bomber has a 90% chance of killing the destroyer, and is the only thing in range of it besides the BB.

You can TRY to take out the Japanese units in SZ37, but the odds are not good.  You get an opening round attack of 2 with a 33% chance to tip their battleship, and then you have 13 attack vs 14 defense.  Even if your sub does hit you’re looking at losing most of those UK units, and if it misses you can kiss your UK fleet goodbye.

So i started thinking of alternatives.  If the RUS1 FTR goes to egypt that means the Suez is open for UK.  I could take the CA, 2FTR, 1CV, and 1TRN into the med, and take the ships in SZ39 east to the Atlantic with 2 INF from Australia.

The TRN in SZ35 could take 2 INF from India to Egypt, and the fleet could protect Egypt.  Then march the other INF from India to Trans Jordan and Egypt.  You’d get to use the India to build 3 units on UK1, and move them on UK2 before Japan has a chance to take it.  That should give you a fairly large force to hold Africa from Germany, and help Russia defend Caucuses from Japan.  Then on UK3 you could merge the Australian boats with the now Med boats in SZ14.

The only thing Germany could do to really counter is to put all their FTR’s to Southern Europe which means they would be too far to attack anything on the Russian front without landing in Ukrain and Belarosia, which is usually contested territories with only 1 defending INF in them at this point in the game while Germany builds it’s forces to push Russia.  So your limiting the German Luftwaffe against Russia even before possibly destroying some of them if they try to take out the UK fleet in the med.

The German FTR’s in Norway and NW Europe will almost certainly attack the UK BB in SZ7 along with their Subs and CA in SZ5.  So they won’t be able to get to SZ17 until G3.  The 3-4 subs will also not be able to help until G3.  The German BB and TRN in the med will have to move out of the Med.  If they go north now the UK planes in Brittain will get to blow them up, if they go south they can attempt to take Africa from the west but with only 2 units without the likelihood of any additional backup which your UK units in Africa should be able to handle.

You will have at least 4INF, 1 ART, 1 TNK in Egypt, if not more if you keep pulling INF back to Africa from the middle east.  That should be enough to clean up any german units in Africa.  So now you hold Africa, and destroy any chance Germany has of taking it.  You can probably do a little finagling with your UK fleets to avoid the sole Germany BB, and combine your Australian naval units with your med naval units, to help hold Africa and invade Germany.

Thoughts?  I just can’t think of any other good things to use India for.  Defending it seems like a lost cause.

@Hobbes:

Here’s a crazy (and untested) idea:

1. Fly the Soviet fighters to both Egypt and to the UK carrier. Buy 1 carrier, 1 fighter and 1 submarine with the UK (30 IPC). Place it all on the UK fleet on SZ35. You’ll have 1 SS, 1 DD, 1 CA, 2 ACs and 4 FTRs.

Japan can attack with 1 BB, 1 AC, 1 DD, 6 FTRs and 1 BMR, 86% odds but that means spending most of its airforce and losing a carrier.

Well the sub only defends on a 1, and the japanese have 2 DD’s.  But lets take this assumption.  You couldn’t get the Australian Fleet there, and G1 should take out your SZ17 DD with the bomber from Germany.  (70% odds of winning, 20% odds of them killing each other, so 90% chance of taking it out).  Now you can also buy more naval units in UK2 before japan can attack SZ35, so perhaps a BB and a DD?

So you have 4 FTR’s, 2 AC’s, 1BB, 1CA, 1DD, 1SS for a defense of 30 VS an attacking fleet of 6 FTRS, 1 bomber, 2BB, 2AC, 1CA, 2DD, 1SS for an attack of 41. (99% chance of Japanese victory, 100% with LL dice)

Pretty sure your not going to keep the Indian Fleet.  Anyway you look at it, any money spent on UK1-2 in SZ35 is going to end up on the bottom of the Ocean.  The only way the starting SZ35 UK fleet lives is if it goes to the med.

@Gargantua:

can you use the dst or cru to block?

Well you could attack the DD and TRN in SZ61, but all the other naval units could just take alternate routs to SZ36.  Now i suppose you could put the TRN in SZ48 to block the SZ50 and SZ60 units, and hope your CA takes out the DD and TRN in SZ61, but even then all the naval units in SZ48 can make it to SZ35 the next turn.

@Hobbes:

Only 1 Japanese DD can reach SZ35.

The 1 DD starts in SZ61, and the 2nd starts in SZ60.  They can both move to SZ36 on J1, and to SZ35 on J2.

@Hobbes:

OK, assuming Germany attacks the DD on SZ17 with the bomber (and loses it, since it’s 43% odds for that to happen - check your calcs),

58% chance for German BMR to win, 28% of tie, 14% chance to lose against the DD.  Just double checked.

@Hobbes:

then UK attacks SZ37 for 1 round of combat and pulls everything back to India. On average that gets 1 hit to the Japanese battleship and another hit for the carrier, which removes 2 fighters from the Japanese attack on SZ35 on J1. If Japan chooses to take down a fighter instead, then continue the attack, if you have average losses (1 sub and 1 cruiser hit on defending fire) but ALWAYS retreat when the carrier dies, if possible.
If the Japanese carrier on SZ37 is sunk then the SZ35 battle becomes:

1 BB, 1 DD, 4 FTRs, 1 BMR vs 2 ACs, 1 CA, 1 SS, 4 FTRs…. or 57% for defenders

Of course, this is a HUGE gamble but if it pays off… Japan is out of the Pacific really soon, since that UK fleet will also have 2 transports in range of East Indies/Borneo.

Well if it was me, i would choose a FTR to lose first.  So First round i tip BB and lose a FTR and you lose 1 Sub, and 1 Cruisers? Then you continue with 1AC, 2FTR, 1CA?  So you get on average 1-2 more hit, and i get 1-2 more hits (10vs10).  So lets say you get lucky and only take 1 hit and lose a CA AND get 2 hits?  That’s a lot of lucky rolls.

That makes you have:
2BB, 2DD, 4FTR, 1BMR, 1CA, 1AC, 1SS (34)vs 2AC, 4FTR, 1BB, 1DD, 1SS (27)

97% chance of Japanese victory.

I don’t know why you keep leaving out 1 of the Japanese BB’s, 1 DD, 1CA, and 1SS.  SO yea sure, if i decide to NOT attack you with everything you MIGHT win?  How does that work?

@Hobbes:

14 defending points / 6 = 2.333, or 2 hits unless you want also to give the UK 3 hits since they have 15 attacking points /6 = 2.5 hits.

Bad math on my part, i fixed my post above.  Please re-read

@Hobbes:

I’m calculating for a possible J1 attack on SZ35, not J2. On UK2 would then really depend on what’s going on the board, at least 1 UK fighter could be moved to West Russia and then move to SZ35 on UK2, so UK could buy on UK2 a carrier, fighter, destroyer and add those 4, possibly 5 (the 2nd fighter from the UK) units to its SZ35 fleet.

Then you’d have 3 carriers and 6 fighters plus a few other units… that would be too much for Japan to break I think, if it has been already weakened on SZ37.

Well the BB you were using for calculations in you UK defense were bought on UK2, for a J2 attack.  But if you want to re-run the numbers with a third carrier instead we can.  But i have a feeling the outcome will be the same.  Why would i attack SZ37 on J1 and risk losing half my fleet when i can attack on J2 and be certain of victory with much lower losses?

Surviving 1AC, and 2FTR + UK1 buy of 1AC, 1FTR (save 7IPC for UK2, gives you 38IPC) + UK2 buy of 1AC, 2FTR, + 1FTR from Russia would give you:

2BB, 2DD, 4FTR, 1BMR, 1CA, 1AC, 1SS (34) vs 3AC, 6FTR (30)

99% chance of Japanese victory.

@Hobbes:

if it has been already weakened on SZ37 and it’s one very risky battle, because afterwards there will be almost nothing left against the starting American fleet and Japan is lalmost forced to fight it. The overall odds depend on the number of surviving J fighters on SZ37 and the UK fighters reaching SZ35.

Another possibility would be just to pull back the UK fleet to Africa on UK2 if Japan massed its fleet to attack SZ35 on J2. With both the UK/US fleets active Japan will lose the Pacific and the money islands quickly.

On average, the Japanese fleet would be left with 2BB, 1AC, 2FTR.  Then lets say on US1 you take Solomon Island, and on J2 i buy 5 subs and put them in SZ60.  Then if the US fleet goes to Borneo, or Philippenes, i can attack that fleet with:

2BB, 1AC, 4FTR (2 from FI), and 5SS (31) VS 1BB, 1AC, 2FTR, 1SS, 2DD (19)

99% chance of victory with an average loss of 3SS.

And if the US wants to delay and build more ships, then you build more subs.  The longer the US tries to take the pacific, the longer Germany has to take Moscow.  Axis Wins.

Also, all these calculations are favoring lucky UK rolls and bad Japanese rolls.  Half the time the outcome will be worse than this for allies.

Really the only GOOD option for UK is to do as you say and pull back to the med.  Use those ships to attack Germany and help keep Africa and support Russia’s Caucuses.

@Mallery29:

Assuming the Japanese fleet is destroyed at EI, I don’t need my fleet to take your islands, I just need transports and an escort.  I’m not going to drop Naval like Hobbes was theorizing (and I’m sure he’s only theorizing, and not saying this is a go to strat).  I’m sure that Hobbes is more likely convinced that the EI fleet must die… but that’s for Hobbes to say.  I will build land units in India.  So go ahead and build your subs, because I’m coming for you.  I can take Borneo or the Phillines US2 if I wanted.  Although if the UK transports survive, I’d appreciate it if they landed the four units in Borneo on UK2.  That way I can possibly land 3 FTRs and  two inf for the US there (or 1inf/1AAA) with a DD blocker.  So if you did build your IC/2 Trans on J1 and put it in Borneo, you lose the complex on UK2.  You’ll be forced to take it back on J2, giving more time for Asia, and then possibly lose it on US2 or lose the Phillipines uncontested.

This whole Naval buy for India was already contested in another thread (better though with the Russian FTR though, but way too risky)….it’s a gamble that I don’t think India can afford…sure, if the dice go UK way, its over…it goes the other way, it’s over the other way.  It’s a nice idea, but so was the Hindenburg…

Assuming you can kill the Japanese fleet at EI?  You only have a 65% chance of that (including ties).  I really wouldn’t PLAN a game winning strategy around a 65% UK1 chance.

No US cannot take any of the islands if i build subs.  Not possible, sorry, not in time to stop Germany from taking Moscow and winning the game anyhow.

Maybe you hold India with ground forces, but likely only if you sacrifice Africa to Germany.  Which means UK will end up with less than 20IPC per turn very soon, and Russia under 20IPC, vs Germany with over 50IPC.  You will  lose eventually.  The only way you can win is if US gets to the mainland, and it can’t do that through the pacific.

@Hobbes:

Hmmm. How about this? On UK2 the UK pulls back instead to SZ38 (SW Australia) and leaves the cruiser to block the Japanese fleet on SZ36 from reaching it. On U2 the US can then take Borneo, move a destroyer to SZ48 to block the 5 J subs and the UK can join the US fleet off Borneo. So you have:

• 2 BB, 1 AC, 2 DD, 1 CA, 1 SS, 5 FTRs, 1 BMR vs 3 ACs, 1 BB, 1 DD, 2 SS, 6 FTRs…. or 50%-50%

I followed everything you said until here.

How are you sending 1 cruiser to block the Japanese fleet on SZ36 on UK2?  The Japanese fleet is on SZ36, so you attack it with 1 cruiser and it blows up.  I think you mean SZ37.

Id’s probablyy go to India and bombard/transport units and take it on J2, and buy 5 subs on J2.  US2 takes Borneo, UK3 merges its Indian fleet with your US fleet.  I attack with everything you just said, +5 subs.

98% chance of Japanese Victory with an average IPC loss of 58 (so I’d lose 6SS, 2DD, 1CA) and be left with a fleet of 2BB, 1AC, 2FTR.  Slightly better than the other way, but only 3SS better.

@Hobbes:

I completely agree with the part of strategies being based on 66% odds but you can rest assured that even if you never use it, you’ll see a lot of people trying. To me, it sounds like something I may try once in a while.

And… yeah all of this discussion on the board has been centered on Pacific and kicking Japan but… none is being said about stopping Germany…

Oh i guarantee you people are doing this, and depending on how the Japanese player responds it may work.  Especially if they don’t buy subs on J2.  I could totally see this strategy working against someone who doesn’t know how to counter it.  But once you know how, it’s easy and reliably countered.

My biggest issue is i think subs are overpowered.  Japan doesn’t need to take land so it doesn’t need naval units that help in that facet.  If the US and UK are in the pacific, that means they aren’t pressuring Germany, so all Japan has to do is keep US/UK occupied long enough for Germany to win the game for them, and mass subs gets that job done.

@Petebu:

I played the other weekend and I was the Axis and I built 2 subs every round with Japan and germany went crazy and I won 2 games using this plan. My question is how do you stop Germany in this game? We are playing again this weekend and I will be the Allies. At this time my plan is to go 50% in the Atlantic and 50% in the pacific with USA.

If japan buys subs, i really don’t see how Allies can win if they are spending any IPC in the Pacific.  Allies need to go KGF.  RUS1 sends Moscow FTR to Egypt to hold it, UK1 buys at least 1DD off the coast of India and on UK2 moves it to SZ17 inside the Mediterranean.  Pull ground troops out of India and move them to hold Africa.  Once you have the Med and Africa, then with US help, clean up the remaining German Navy and start invading Europe.  Either force Germany to fight on 2 sides, or Reinforce the Russian front line to push back either Germany or Japan.

@Mallery29:

Subs overpowered?  They’ve been like this for what, at least 4 years?  At least they don’t have the two defense…those were the days of overpowered.

India should NOT be abandon…in 41, yes, definitely (by turn 4)…not here…even in a KGF strat, you should not be abandonig India…Uk can still build to support India, but abandoning it only bring back the “orange steamroller”.  Why would Japan even bother buying an IC if you are just going to be a coward and abandon your post.

The game is not Axis favored heavily like 42.1 was…the axis should not be “cruising” to victories like you say they are.

At least when they were 2 defense they cost 8 IPC.  I think that is much more balanced.  Then you can’t outproduce subs over equally powerful destroyers, or cruisers.  While cruisers cost 12IPC, they have the same ATK/DEF per IPC as destroyers.  4IPC per point of ATK/DEF.  So then you can grab 1 destroyer, and some cruisers and still bombard stuff while simultaneously defending against subs.

UK cannot keep India and Africa, and Africa is worth more.