I rolled SZ110 5 times with the following:
Allies:
2 Cru
1 BB
3 Ftr Scramble
Germany:
2 Subs (SZ103 and SZ108)
1 Cru (SZ113)
1 BB (SZ113)
3 Ftr (1 Holland, 2 W.Germany)
3 TacB (3 W.Germany)
First Result:
Round 1: All Allied units destroyed, Germany lost 2 subs and had a Damaged BB
Second Result:
Round 1: Allies lost 2 Cru, 1 BB, 1 Ftr (Fr), Germany lost 2 Subs, 1 Cru, 1 BB and 1 TacB
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Third Result:
Round 1: Allies lost all 3 ships, all Ftr remaining. Germany lost 1 Sub, had a damaged BB.
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Fourth Result:
Round 1: Allies lost all ships, 2 Ftr remaining. Germany lost 2 Subs, 1 Cruiser, had a damaged BB
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Fifth Result:
Round 1: Allies lost all ships, all Ftr remaining. Germany lost 1 Sub, 1 Cru and had a damaged BB.
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
So in 5 rounds it looks like Germany sinks the Allied fleet in SZ110 and only once lost any aircraft. I would say its a safe guess that the Germans end the battle with either a Sub or Cru (your choice) and a damaged BB.
Now with those units all used up, I looked at SZ111:
Allies:
1 DD
1 Cru
1 BB
1 Ftr Scramble
Germany:
2 Subs (SZ124 and SZ118)
1 Ftr (Norway)
1 TacB (Germany - Land on AC)
2 Bomber (Germany)
First Result:
Round 1: All allied ships sunk, 1 Ftr remains. Germany lost 2 Subs.
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Second Result:
Round 1: All allied units destroyed. Germany lost 2 Subs, 1 TacB
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Third Result:
Round 1: All allied ships sunk, 1 Ftr remains. Germany lost 2 Subs.
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Fourth Result:
Round 1: All allied ships sunk, 1 Ftr remains. Germany lost 1 Sub
Round 2: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
Fifth Result:
Round 1: Allies lost 1 DD, 1 Cru. Damaged BB, 1 Ftr remains. Germany lost 2 Subs, 1 TacB.
Round 2: Allies lost 1 BB. Germany lost 1 Ftr, 1 Bomber.
Round 3: Chose to withdraw w/ Germany because fleet was sunk
It looks slightly dicier for the Germans to lose an aircraft or two from this battle. I think it looks like its possible that Germany sends the Cru to 111 instead of 110. It basically gives each battle for Germany 3 hits to take before it starts losing any aircraft.
I didn’t roll the SZ106 change at all because its realistically not much of a change - it went from 40-40-20 odds to 50-50. I think thats a bit of a detractor for the Allies in regards to the battle as you don’t get a retaliation strike this way. However, its a bit of a boost to have 2 Cru moving to SZ109 to join with the DD instead of 2 DD and 1 Cru.
Now the question remains: How important was the BB and Cru to the German Sealion? because that seems to be the only change from moving the ships around.