Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

in that last game, I had no choice but to attack because I was running out of options and it was unlikely that you were going to give me that kind of opportunity again.

I do believe that this module plays out more like WW II than any other variation yet.  Yes, different decisions were made so that different events happened, but it was all plausible.

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

according to expected values

attacker does 42 hits, defender 48 hits in the first round

any opinion that I express on balance will sound like sour grapes at this point.

I know that you and Jennifer are both itching to try a rush Russia strategy.

It could lead to weird situations like the British and Japanese co-occupying russia with the japs able to ignore the brits, although that’s not actually true, the Brits could actually force the japs to DOW if they want to attack Russians - only sea units can co exist, 1 British infantry would be sufficient to shield the Russians without a Jap DOW against Britain.

expected second round result is 34 hits for both

the Germans were expected to exceed the Russians in hits on the 3rd round 28 vs 24

actually 28 vs. 23

expected 4th round 21 vs. 14 hits, going into the 5th round its

23 arts 9 tanks 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 9 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

taken with 17 arts 9 tanks was the expected outcome.

rolling out 1 more time randomly.

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 5180@1: (2, 5, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 1, 6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 6, 4, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 5, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4)62@2: (2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2, 6, 2, 5, 4, 1, 4, 2, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 6, 5, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 5, 1, 3, 1, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2)10@3: (6, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 4, 6, 1, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 4, 3, 1)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 1@4; Total Hits: 58121@2: (1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 6, 5, 3, 3, 1, 5, 6, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 2, 4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 6, 2, 5, 3, 4, 5, 2, 4, 2, 4, 1)12@3: (2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2)1@4: (5)

51 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
25 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 22@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3322@1: (3, 5, 1, 1, 3, 2, 5, 5, 3, 4, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 2)62@2: (4, 4, 3, 2, 4, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 4, 6, 1, 2, 4, 1, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 1, 6, 1, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 5, 6)10@3: (3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 2, 2, 4, 5)
DefendRolls: 72@2 12@3 1@4; Total Hits: 3372@2: (3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 5, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 6, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 2, 6, 4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 6, 4, 6)12@3: (3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 4, 3, 5, 2, 6, 4)1@4: (3)

18 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
1 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 51@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2551@2: (1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 3, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 4)10@3: (4, 2, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 2)5@4: (2, 2, 4, 2, 6)
DefendRolls: 39@2 12@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1439@2: (1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 4, 3)12@3: (6, 6, 5, 4, 5, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4)1@4: (6)

4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
14 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2237@2: (2, 5, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 6, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 3, 5, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 6)10@3: (5, 4, 3, 1, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5)5@4: (4, 5, 4, 1, 4)
DefendRolls: 14@2 12@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1314@2: (2, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 4)12@3: (5, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 3)1@4: (5)

one more time . . .

what makes this one painful is that it was a great game and it would have played out really interestingly if the Germans actually had a credible shot at Moscow in late 1944.

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3880@1: (3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 5, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 4, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 6, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 4, 3, 3, 6, 4, 2, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 6, 1, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 6, 2, 6, 5, 2, 1, 6, 5, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 4, 6, 5)62@2: (3, 3, 2, 6, 5, 2, 3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6, 1, 1, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 3, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 4, 5, 6, 5, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 3, 2)10@3: (4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 5, 3, 2)5@4: (2, 4, 4, 5, 6)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 51121@2: (5, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 6, 3, 1, 6, 3, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 2, 1, 4, 3, 6, 6, 1, 6, 2, 6, 5, 6, 4, 4, 1, 3, 6, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 6, 5, 1, 6, 2, 5, 4, 2, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 5, 2, 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 6, 6, 5, 2)12@3: (6, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1)2@4: (2, 6)

58 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
38 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 29@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2929@1: (5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 6, 5, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 3)62@2: (1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 5, 4, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 6, 5, 5, 6, 3, 6, 3, 4, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 6, 1, 3, 4, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 3)10@3: (5, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 1, 3)5@4: (1, 5, 3, 2, 3)
DefendRolls: 85@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 4085@2: (2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 5, 4, 4, 6, 6, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 3, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 1, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 6, 5, 2, 6, 6, 3, 6)12@3: (1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 1, 4)2@4: (4, 4)

18 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
9 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 51@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2851@2: (5, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 5)10@3: (3, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 2)5@4: (1, 2, 6, 6, 1)
DefendRolls: 56@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2756@2: (4, 3, 2, 2, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 3, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 2, 2, 5, 6, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 2, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 3, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 2, 4, 3, 3)12@3: (3, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 3, 2)2@4: (3, 5)

24 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
20 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 24@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1724@2: (1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 6, 4, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 2, 3, 4, 2)10@3: (2, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 1, 6, 6, 6)5@4: (1, 3, 5, 4, 1)
DefendRolls: 20@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1320@2: (5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 4, 3)12@3: (6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (1, 2)