Alpha 3.9 is a very impressive game. Big kudos to the playtesters and LH for developing the ruleset.
I got the impression that the OOB version was biased towards German Sealion and if Germany didn’t commit to Sealion they were likely to lose, while being likely to win if Sealion was achieved by G3.
But alpha 3.9 makes Sea Lion very risky imho. Barring luck or Allied mistakes you won’t get it until G4, which is likely too late if Russia is moving forward and USA is investing heavily in the Atlantic.
If you are playing India Crush at the same time, then Japan should be declaring on J2. But a J2 declaration means USA could land both air and gear in London on USA3.
I don’t know if Indiacrush is viable with just the starting 3 transports and a J3 declaration….it may be, or you may have to wait till J4. Either way, if Japan declares on J3, then USA can move its Atlantic fleet in position to liberate UK on USA4 and land any bombers it has on UK for fodder. Germany can do what it can to stall USA and/or retake UK whenever its liberated but at that point the Soviets should have mainland dominance and Germany should be having trouble keeping its fleet in the water vrs. USA air/naval.
If on the other hand Japan does not declare J2 or J3 to give Germany room to Sealion, then Anzac and UK-Pacific should make enough money to hold out on their own and USA can put most of its income into the Atlantic.
Arguably the most viable axis strat I’ve seen in alpha 3.9 is all 3 powers going after Russia and winning the long game by dominating Eurasia. At this early stage I see no evidence the game remains biased towards Sealion like the OOB.