Sealion in three turns, Major flaw with Alpha 2

I think that most players actually know this. And all experienced UK players will build 9 infantries on the first turn, followed by 9 infantry in the second turn. Supported by 4 fighters, that easily defeats your 7 tanks and 7 infantries, 3 tacs and strat bomber. The odds, in the configuration are almost 95% in favour of the UK.

The only way I see an early sealion possible is with 8 barges in the second turn, bringing the total to 9, and the entire Luftwaffe. With an attack on turn 3. Which, I seem to observe, bring the odds to about 55% in favour of the Germans. Which is basically 45% chance of loosing the game.

There are some major flaws with this.

1. “you should still have plenty of planes still” - Poor Grammar
2. “I have no idea what england buys.(toilet paper)” - Unlikely. Toilet paper does not have    the defensive capabilities of say, 9 infantry.

3.@captainhook:

I think that most players actually know this. And all experienced UK players will build 9 infantries on the first turn, followed by 9 infantry in the second turn. Supported by 4 fighters, that easily defeats your 7 tanks and 7 infantries, 3 tacs and strat bomber. The odds, in the configuration are almost 95% in favour of the UK.

The only way I see an early sealion possible is with 8 barges in the second turn, bringing the total to 9, and the entire Luftwaffe. With an attack on turn 3. Which, I seem to observe, bring the odds to about 55% in favour of the Germans. Which is basically 45% chance of loosing the game.

Just like it’s written…

Nightlord,

I would go through and read all the posts on this subject. There are many posts on this and this has been well known for a long time and is a regular strategy for the Axis.

Taking London is not a flaw - least of all Major - it’s a strategy.
It’s not a given, but can be a very good move.

I prefer a G2 or G3 myself if attempting it. G2 if things goes well for me in G1, G3 if not.

I like to take it with 10 trns minimum too.  That means now I’m not losing the German luftwaffe when I take London.  I’m going to need those planes to help keep the Americans at bay and fight the Russians.  However, now your real tactical skills are going to be put to the test, because Russia is massing and breathing heavy while you whisk 10+ trn loads away from them.  A good Russian will counter with tank builds, at least for one round to let him lunge into Europe for those meaty ipcs.

So /if/ you are successful in London, have fun fighting back the hordes while holding your ill gotten gains, its quite a ride!

PS***Also wanted to add that anybody who quits after a G3 Sealion doesn’t understand how to play this game.

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

@JimmyHat:

PS***Also wanted to add that anybody who quits after a G3 Sealion doesn’t understand how to play this game.

I had an argument with a player quitting cause he lost england G4 (g4!!!), and said the game was already lost :(

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  :-D

Not so sure about USA taking it back in turn 4 though, since Germany still has a load of transports (unless those had been taken care of), so after USA liberates UK, Germany can (in theory) just take it again.

@special:

Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  :-D

While I understand the tone of your statement - then….
One of the benefits of the (successful) Sealion is that you’re likely to pull the USA out of the pacific and into the Atlantic. And if the USA sees the potential for a successful Sealion, perhaps even get them to not go 100% Pacific to begin with.

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.

If you can get USA to go all Atlantic, it sure gives Japan room to breath.  We just finished the 3rd round of a game where USA decided early to go almost 100% Atlantic.  Sent all the Pacific fleet over and is just using a couple of transports to shuck men to Alaska and Hawaii.  Since Germany took London round 3, USA declared war and has a large fleet in SZ 91 plus 4 transports of men and equipment on Gibraltar.  I think they were planning to take Rome next turn, but Italy put a blocker in SZ 92 so I think they will try to re-take London.  That is, unless the German navy and air force have something to say about it.  Germany has a fairly large fleet too:  1 CV + 2 tacs, 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 DD, 3 SS.  Also, they have some fighters and a bomber on Normandy.
Anyway, since there is NOTHING threatening Japan, the Japanese fleet is near the DEI and have trashed the small UK fleet there.  ANZAC is still trying to build a fleet and decide what to do with it.  The Japs have Malaya, Hong Kong and most of China.  Calcutta is under intense pressure.  Japan is having a rather good time.  If the US doesn’t make something happen soon in Europe, the Allies may be doomed on both sides.

@The_nightlord:

A lengthy explanation.

Dear sir,

If you use the following tool: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html , which is an AA odds calculator, you will find that the battle, in the configuration you have given, gives about 60% chance of victory to the UK.

Good day.

YAaaaaaaaaaar!!!

:roll:

Nightlord,

Have you actually played with the Alpha +2 rules?

I think you are sorely mistaken on a few points…

2 subs take out trans and destroyer off england  What about the three planes that can scramble?  unless you get a hit the the first round - the subs die for nothing….

1 sub , heavy bomber, tact bomber and figher take out battle ship and destroyer north of england  What about the plane that can scramble here?  Thats 1@2 + 1@3 + 2@4 over 5 hits against 1@2 2@4 over 4 hits - Your both likely to get close to 2 hits, the problem becomes that the British Battleship gets a tip.  Call it 2 for 2,  You are left with 1@3 1@4, vs 2@4, Trading your Desperatley needed planes for sealion - for British Ships.

And what about the counter?  You are building a cruiser,

So…. 2x Cruiser 1 bat,  assuming they don’t get hit whilst wasting the fleet off of west germany (Which you are PAR to take a hit for.)  that gives you 3 fighters at best to scramble…

British… 2x Cru 1 bat, 3 to 4 planes depending on whether Sz111 scrambled or, if the British built an aircraft carrier opening Sz110 as a landing strip.

Say I see your build and attacks and choose NOT to scramble Sz111, and you take the typical single hit off of west germany.

That gives the UK 6@3 + 1@4 over 8 hits for the british.  Vs your 2@3 4@4 over 6 hits. Damn Close.  And GAME OVER if you fail to kill the destroyer off englands west coast, or fail to take out the normandy plane.  They don’t have to win, they just have to sink your fleet.  More planes are on the way from the Med.

I’m seeing alot of risks here along the way…  Even if they just plainly build infantry - it’s SO close.

And what if the UK builds something into their navy? How do you intend to sink it?  with your subs off of Canada? Because you wont have any near England.  A single aircraft carrier would give the british 5 defending planes, a battleship and 2x cruisers to match your own.  And they can still spend another 12…  If he add’s 2x subs to the mix, or a destroyer, it’s just more fodder to trade against your planes…  and as soon as your navy leaves the harbour…

Sea-Lion is NEVER a “for sure” thing. Ever. Unless your opponent doesnt see the option.

@The_nightlord:

You cant argue with math.

Good day to you. Hook :mrgreen:

I do agree with that statement. And will correct my mistake, the UK will build 9 infantries in the first turn, and 10 infantries in the second, as they carried over 2 IPC, in most cases they will still have their original territories at the end of their first turn and will therefore make enough to actually buy 9 infantries and 1 tank, seeing the germans barges.

that gives, using your methodology, and rounding up, if p>= 0.5 and down if p<0.5 and using 4 decimals in the approximations of fractions.

Round 0 -> AA gun fires.

german 1 bomber, 5 tacs, 4 fighters = 10 planes. He ought to loose 1.667 planes. Say 1 tac and 1 fighter, although there is a slightly higher chance that more high value planes are lost.

Round 1

Germany           
1 bomber + 4tac: 3.3333 hits               
3 fighters+7 tanks: 5 hits
7infantries: 1.1667 hits
total: 9.5 hits -> 10 hits

UK
4 fighters -> 2.6667
23 infantry -> 7.6667
total: 10.3333 -> 10 hits

Round 2

Germany
1bomber + 4 tac: 3.3333 hits
3 fighters + 4 tanks: 3.5 hits
total: 6.8333 hits -> 7 hits

UK
4 fighters -> 2.6667 hits
13 infantry -> 4.3333
total: 7 hits

round 3

Germany
1bomber+3 tacs: 2.6667 hits
1 tank: 0.5 hits
total: 3.1667 hits -> 3 hits

UK
4 fighters: 2.6667 hits
6 infantry: 2 hits
total 4.6667 hits -> 5 hits

UK wins.

I think that one of us is making a mistake. And I sincerely doubt that it is me, good sir.

@special:

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  :-D

Not so sure about USA taking it back in turn 4 though, since Germany still has a load of transports (unless those had been taken care of), so after USA liberates UK, Germany can (in theory) just take it again.

If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.

@majikforce:

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.

If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.