M7574 & EM (axis) vs Anchovy & moulinex (allies) G40 alpha +2

1d1000<=1: 340; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 862; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 173; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 353; Hits: 0

Just wondering, where is the return fire of the German submarines in both naval battles?

@VictoryFirst said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):

@AndrewAAGamer said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):

Would you be able to calculate when we get Bad dice or Very Bad dice in two or more areas? That should be important too.

I think what will be difficult here is defining what territories belong which areas. For example a battle in G28, should you include it under Caen or St. Lo? Units there can go either way. An approach like this is almost impossible.

I guess I wasn’t clear. I am not looking for you to peruse the game I just had and figure out what the dice variable was. I was hoping, if possible, due to your math skills, if sometime in the near future you would be able to tell me certain odds like you just did. For example:

Odds of at least 1 area area with Bad dice Odds of at least 2 areas with Bad dice Odds of at least 1 area with Very Bad dice Odds of at least 2 areas of Very Bad dice

That way, once, and if, we can confirm the Allies win 100% of the time with even dice, or dice favorable to the Allies we could assign percentages to the varies bad dice and come up with some estimate of how often the Germans would win. BTW if you did that it would be awesome if you used 16% / 68% /16% as the low, normal and high parameters.

All I want to test for is IF the Allies get fair dice would they win every time.

Alright, that sounds logical, taking one step at a time. My first guess they wouldn’t but I am going to play a solo game first with this. I want to see what effect the average dice will have on the game. After that we can play.

Here is a link to a solo test I started. I will place the methodology instructions there that I am using for the testing.

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/41401/andrewaagamer-solo-test?_=1733436170864

@DoManMacgee to the death.

@The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 4 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 6 armour and 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 transport moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Aegean Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Greece to Aegean Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Aegean Sea Sea Zone to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Syria Germans take Syria from Middle_East 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya Germans take Libya from British 1 infantry moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 infantry moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 bomber moved from Crete to Ukraine S.S.R. 3 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States 4 fighters moved from East Poland to Baltic States 2 fighters moved from Germany to Baltic States 1 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States 1 submarine moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to Soviet Convoy Sea Zone Germans take Soviet Convoy Sea Zone from Russians 1 submarine moved from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone to Barents Sea Sea Zone Combat - Germans Battle in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Battle in Baltic States Germans attack with 6 fighters and 4 infantry Russians defend with 3 infantry Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 6 fighters and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9 Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Changing ownership of Karelia from Russians to Germans EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Karelia: 1 infantry EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Finland: 1 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Battle in Barents Sea Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 submarine Russians defend with 1 submarine 1 submarine owned by the Germans submerged Non Combat Move - Germans 2 infantry moved from Eastern France to Germany 3 infantry moved from East Poland to Bessarabia 1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany 1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 aaGun, 10 armour, 5 artilleries and 10 infantry moved from East Poland to Baltic States 1 artillery and 24 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States 8 armour moved from Germany to Baltic States 2 fighters moved from Baltic States to Bessarabia 4 fighters moved from Baltic States to Germany Place Units - Germans 6 armour and 4 infantry placed in Germany Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Changing PUs for Americans from 42 to 41 EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUs

G4.tsvg

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: The Rising Sun

Game History

Round: 3 Combat Move - Russians 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry moved from Ulaan Ude to Irkutsk 1 EarlyFighter moved from Jinan to Irkutsk 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys moved from Jinan to Quingdao Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 6 Infantrys and 4 Mech.Infs; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat - Russians Battle in Irkutsk Russians attack with 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry Masaharu defend with 1 Artillery Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry in Irkutsk, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery in Irkutsk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry in Irkutsk, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery in Irkutsk, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Artillery owned by the Masaharu lost in Irkutsk Russians win, taking Irkutsk from Masaharu with 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Masaharu: 1 Artillery Battle in Quingdao Russians attack with 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys Masaharu defend with 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys in Quingdao, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry in Quingdao, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 2 Infantrys owned by the Russians lost in Quingdao 1 Infantry owned by the Masaharu and 1 Artillery owned by the Masaharu lost in Quingdao Russians win, taking Quingdao from Masaharu with 1 Artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for Russians: 2 Infantrys Casualties for Masaharu: 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 Infantry moved from Ulaan Ude to Ustkut 2 Tanks moved from Jinan to Ulaan Ude 5 Infantrys moved from Kyzal to Ulaan Ude 1 Infantry moved from Jinquan to Kyzal 1 Elite moved from Kaask to Kyzal 1 Artillery moved from Kaask to Tulun 6 Infantrys moved from Kaask to Tulun 4 Mech.Infs moved from Achinsk to Tulun 1 EarlyFighter moved from Irkutsk to Ulaan Ude Place Units - Russians 6 Infantrys placed in Kaask 4 Mech.Infs placed in Achinsk Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Masaharu regular : 0.67 Russians regular : 0.17

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 8

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 8 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 2 armour, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 3 infantry moved from Jehol to Chahar 1 fighter moved from Anhwe to Shansi 1 fighter moved from Shansi to Chahar Combat - Russians Battle in Chahar Russians attack with 1 fighter and 3 infantry Japanese defend with 1 infantry Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Chahar, round 2 : 3/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Chahar, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Chahar Russians win, taking Chahar from Japanese with 1 fighter and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 fighter moved from Chahar to Kansu 10 infantry moved from Amur to Siberia 20 infantry moved from Rostov to Kursk 12 artilleries moved from Rostov to Kursk 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Bryansk 20 infantry moved from Bryansk to Kursk 4 artilleries moved from Bryansk to Kursk 10 infantry moved from Bryansk to Kursk 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Rostov 4 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Rostov to Russia 2 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Russia to Bryansk 1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Smolensk to Russia 1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from Yaroslavl to Gorky 5 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Yaroslavl to Russia 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Russia to Bryansk Place Units - Russians 10 infantry placed in Russia 2 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Stalingrad Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 37 PUs; end with 37 PUs Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 39 PUs Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 41 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Japanese regular : -0.33 Russians regular : 2.00

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Yamamoto round 9

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World At War

Game History

Round: 9 Combat Move - Yamamoto 1 unit repaired. 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 6 Adv.Fighters and 2 Fighters moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from Chubu to 76 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from Chubu to 76 Sea Zone 2 Destroyers moved from 85 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone 1 Elite moved from Chubu to 85 Sea Zone 1 Elite and 1 S.Submarine moved from 85 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone 1 Elite moved from 101 Sea Zone to Ulithi 2 Artillerys and 1 Infantry moved from Yap to Ulithi 1 Elite moved from Chubu to 85 Sea Zone 2 Infantrys moved from Tokyo to 85 Sea Zone 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys moved from 85 Sea Zone to Iwo Jima 2 Transports moved from 105 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys moved from Banjarmasin to 110 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 2 Transports moved from 110 Sea Zone to 105 Sea Zone 2 Infantrys moved from 105 Sea Zone to S.Thailand 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank moved from S.Thailand to N.Thailand 2 Artillerys moved from 105 Sea Zone to S.Thailand 2 Transports moved from 105 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone Purchase Units - Yamamoto Yamamoto buy 6 Artillerys, 1 Battleship, 2 Bunkers, 2 Destroyers, 1 Elite, 7 Infantrys, 1 Marine and 1 S.Submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat - Yamamoto Battle in N.Thailand Yamamoto attack with 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank British defend with 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank in N.Thailand, round 2 : 4/7 hits, 2.50 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Infantry in N.Thailand, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the British lost in N.Thailand Yamamoto win, taking N.Thailand from British with 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for British: 1 Infantry Battle in 86 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 6 Adv.Fighters, 1 Destroyer and 2 Fighters Americans defend with 2 S.Submarines Americans roll dice for 2 S.Submarines in 86 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits Yamamoto roll dice for 6 Adv.Fighters, 1 Destroyer and 2 Fighters in 86 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/9 hits, 4.00 expected hits 1 Destroyer owned by the Yamamoto lost in 86 Sea Zone 2 S.Submarines owned by the Americans lost in 86 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 6 Adv.Fighters and 2 Fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for Yamamoto: 1 Destroyer Casualties for Americans: 2 S.Submarines Battle in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine Americans defend with 1 Cruiser and 1 S.Submarine Yamamoto roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 S.Submarine owned by the Americans lost in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Destroyers in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Cruiser in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Yamamoto roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 Cruiser owned by the Americans lost in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22 Casualties for Americans: 1 Cruiser and 1 S.Submarine Battle in 76 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber British defend with 1 Destroyer Yamamoto roll dice for 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber in 76 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Destroyer in 76 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Destroyer owned by the British lost in 76 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for British: 1 Destroyer Battle in Iwo Jima Yamamoto attack with 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys Americans defend with 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 1 Battleship in Iwo Jima, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Americans lost in Iwo Jima Yamamoto win, taking Iwo Jima from Americans with 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for Americans: 1 Infantry Battle in Ulithi Yamamoto attack with 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry Americans defend with 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Americans lost in Ulithi Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 3 : 3/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Artillery in Ulithi, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Yamamoto lost in Ulithi 1 Artillery owned by the Americans lost in Ulithi Yamamoto win, taking Ulithi from Americans with 2 Artillerys and 1 Elite remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Americans: 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Casualties for Yamamoto: 1 Infantry Non Combat Move - Yamamoto 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 2 Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 3 Adv.Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 2 Adv.Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from 76 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from 76 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from 93 Sea Zone to Davao 1 Infantry moved from Kwangtung to Kwangsi 3 Infantrys moved from Kwangtung to Hunan 2 Transports moved from 84 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone Place Units - Yamamoto 1 Bunker placed in Sumatra 1 Bunker placed in Malaya 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys placed in Banjarmasin 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys placed in Davao 1 Battleship, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine placed in 85 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite, 3 Infantrys and 1 Marine placed in Tokyo Turn Complete - Yamamoto Yamamoto collect 90 PUs; end with 90 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Yamamoto regular : 5.17 Americans regular : -1.00 British regular : -0.67

Savegame