Sealion Version 1.0

Then you have a 60% chance of winning all 4 of those battles. Add to that the 70% chance of battle of London suceeding, you get 42%

It’s depressing to see the odds on the UK navy in G1.  If balance really needs to be looked at I vote for a return of the “each side gets 12 IPC pre-game to spend” that we saw in the original Europe.  Let’s say Germany/Italy has to place theirs first.  It would throw a monkey wrench in the “always do this” strategies.

Italy might buy a cruiser to try to save her fleet.  Then France gets four more inf!  Germany would be hard pressed to devote it’s air force to the destruction of the UK navy in that scenario.  There’s alot of different variations possible.

@jim010:

You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event.  Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.

Are we looking at counters to this or the odds?  I’m here to look at counters.

If something has a less than 50% chance and losing that set of moves will lose the game, then there need not be a counter.

C&H-liker

If Germany can expect to see success of a sealion in about half the games by round 3, 42% isn’t low odds, it’s actually very good odds considering the number of independent battles involved. In A&A I’d take almost ANY battle with a 75% chance of success (especially, as with G1 there are NO good counterattack options against these individual attacks), and if it meant a capital capture on the 3rd round, 70% is huge.

And even if one of the attacks fails, Germany hasn’t especially wasted anything if it can get past the first round (especially as the first turn buy is still fairly strong, strong enough to force Britain’s hand). If Germany loses a critical battle in G1, it’s unlikely Germany will try for a Sealion, but it’s not in bad shape for Russia or helping in Africa.

But if Germany gets past the round 1 gambit, the UK will probably lose to the Sealion, which means Germany should more often than not start with those moves, and based on the 60% chance of winning the attacks proposed by Jim, will more often than not invest in a navy for G3 sealion.

In about half the games, Germany will pull off a sealion per that strat. In the other games their G2 is as strong as pretty much any other and they’re not locked into anything.

Britain needs a strat to reduce the likelyhood of the 70% sealion G3 sealion, not praying for Germany to get diced on G1. Or we need verification that the Sealion strategy doesn’t have enough momentum for Russia later. Right now, @ 42%, any smart German player will do that, because I suspect there isn’t a higher percentage of success that nets THAT much for Germany in ANY other combination of moves.

42% is HUGE. not small.

I’ll take you up on it Jim, not low luck but dice.  I have some ideas, such as SZ 113 being not safe for your transports.  Other than that I’m not 100% sure of the counters.

The reason I say dice is simply that some strats that are broken in low luck, are not broken in dice due to odds of one or two important close battles.  While in the India Crush scenario this is unimportant due to the overwhelming odds, in the case of the J1 Pearl strike in oob setup it does play a huge role, to use examples.  As far as counters go I’m not really sure.  Does the US have to forces to liberate?  Can russia get nutty?  Its all up in the air a bit.

Lastly, I wouldn’t be the quickest player, mostly on weekends, usually 1 turn a day during the week but not always.  Go ahead and start one/post map if you like.

I assumed as much, I have ideas though.  Possibly not good ones but I do have them.

@jim010:

Also, Calvin,

I will try not to come across as pushy or defensive in the future.  I like playing you, and look forward to friendly games again.  You didn’t say I was this way, but reading my posts, I certainly think I was.

No worries, anyone would be defensive when their ideas that they worked hard on to develop are dismissed in a single post

Game I played Germany did not commit all aircraft to sea battles so UK was able to attack German fleet with CV, Tac, 3 Fighters, DD.

Germany also did not buy SS only CV + TT’s. UK rolled fairly well and so Germany was left with BB (dmg) and UK 1 fighter.

Germany did not Sealion (I realize now UK was wide open). Italian fleet was untouched and dominated the Med. Allies gave up when Russia was reduced to Moscow. (Axis one victory city short)

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil: