I’d argue that the Atlantic is better for catch-up. The trade-off is you enter one round later than you would otherwise, so you need to find a way to stall Germany for one round more than otherwise.
The reasoning is that if the US builds enough of a fleet in Hawaii to tie down half the Japanese air force in defense and force the fleet to at least stay within 1 move of Japan - which it can achieve in round 1 - and combine that with aggressive play by Russia/UKPac/ANZAC/China, Japan’s “monster” phase can be delayed significantly. That represents 50+ IPC a turn swing in resources (mostly from Allies holding DEI/UK-Pac territories longer) which can then be committed by the US and UK to the European theater, since now the four other powers can keep Japan contained. ANZAC and UK-Pac making 35ish combined per turn plus the Chinese contribution is an even match against a 45 income Japan with half an airforce to use (and 18 inf 2aa in Korea is extremely inconvenient as well), Japan can be entirely consumed on land and unable to afford any additional ships at all, their transports dropping units on the mainland and not Java, Sumatra, Celebes.
Someone showed me a trick the other night where you can construct a defensive web of allied destroyers in the DEI to further frustrate and divert Japanese resources and delay the monster phase. He did everything else on the stop-Japan list as well, except he didn’t build US fleet in Pac. However, with the fleet free to do something other than defend Japan, it was able to do the job of cleaning up that nest and assaulting the islands on its own. If it were tied down in defense, then air would be diverted to both defending the fleet and also to capturing the islands, and even with everything they start with that’s not enough to also get good combats in China as well.
So that first US spend in the Pacific really does come back in a big way in making the other allies sustainable, freeing UK-Eur resources to spend immediately against Germany, and allowing the US to focus on the Atlantic as long as it needs to to get the job done.
The Atlantic “hammer” takes a few turns of builds to set up, so if you focus on it first, it’s now round 5 or 6 before the first real Pacific spend, and Japan is at 70+ IPCs with China and UK-Pac no longer able to resist. This is true even if Japan needs to clean up Russian inf in Korea as well. At that point Japan can match the US IPC for IPC and has defeated the enemy on the Asian front, while floating a nice navy into the Indian Ocean for further gains. Japan can now force the US to spend all its IPC in the Pacific and not in Europe in order to hold the line.
So the build-Pac-late scenario basically gives the US one good shot at scoring a winning blow in Europe, and that offers Germany a great strategic option, of bleeding off the US units trading territories (inf/ftr builds) and lessening the hammer’s strength with every kill. Even if you take Italy, Germany can take it back.
The Axis don’t really need Russia to fall on a schedule other than “eventually”. They just need to push it back to its capital so it’s not building, and have enough of a stack next to it not to kill it but to keep it contained. Actually capturing the capital itself is not terribly meaningful at that point. And the Germans can do that easily while dropping large amounts of inf/ftr and the occasional sub back home to repel landings - they are reinforcing every turn at 50 IPC (figure 10inf/1art/1sub/1ftr every turn) while the US is now committed to 100% Pacific builds for as long as Japan likes.
So a strategic scenario of Japan vs. US full build in the Pacific with Japan advancing on Mideast/Africa, and Germany in highly-efficient compact-defense mode pulling in 50+, China and UKPac out of the game, Russia just an idle holdout stack destined to die… that’s a pretty good Axis scenario. Allies’ whole game chances rest on that one initial US strike on Europe being effective, essentially - UK Europe won’t be able to fight off Japan and contribute against Germany at the same time.
I would rather be fighting a smaller Japan and have that hammer fall one round later, in such a manner that reinforcements could be continuously on the way, at which point extra IPC can go into Pac builds against a weaker version of Japan that can’t afford to dedicate its full IPC to a naval race and has a healthy ANZAC to contend with as well.
The more practice I get on the Axis side the more I am realizing that you can overload Japan and short-circuit the process of becoming a monster, but you need all 5 pieces (and maybe even that French destroyer) to actually achieve the effect. Japan can do three things and hold off one more threat. It cannot do three things and hold off TWO more threats. US full build Pac1 is the tipping point where Japanese resources are no longer adequate to do all the things it needs to do. You can get it at the cost of arriving in Europe one round later.
