2nd Ed Strategy: UK Abandon Egypt

[z0m4d]

Hi, everyone.  I’m going to play Europe 1940 2nd edition today as the Allies and am thinking about trying a new strategy, abandoning Egypt as UK on turn 1 and consolidating the Atlantic Fleet on SZ 109.  I would only try this the SZ 111 fleet remains.  Would like to hear your ideas on this, though.

Reason: If Germany lands a fighter or more into Southern Italy, the Italian fleet at 97 has an 80% chance of winning against an attack.  Conversely, the SZ 95 and SZ 96 Italian fleets (assuming SZ 96 is destroyed) has a 96% chance of taking out the SZ 98 UK fleet (even with a fighter landing on the carrier).  Egypt is likewise not going to last more than a few turns, so I’d rather withdraw, consolidate and reinforce, then counter attack later with overwhelming odds.  South Africa will pump out mech infantry and tanks until UK can retake, hold and maintain Egypt.  Atlantic Fleet will either reinforce SZ 91 on turn 4 with the American fleet, or SZ 92 to harass the Italians.  At the appropriate moment, perhaps when the Italian fleet is at SZ 92, the African fleet will move back through the Suez Canal to their rightful place in SZ 98.

Purchase 3x mech infantry (for South Africa) and 2x destroyers for SZ 109, leaving 1 IPC.

Africa Theater: Transport in SZ 98 picks up infantry and artillery in Alexandria.  Entire SZ 98 fleet goes to SZ 76 to launch an amphibious attack against Ethiopia, along with Sudan infantry and Egypt mech infantry.  Gibraltar and Malta fighters attack SZ 96 transport and destroyer.  Tank from Alexandria and infantry and artillery from Alexandria non-combat to Sudan.  Destroyer from SZ 71 to SZ 76.  Both South Africa infantry move to Rhodesia.  West India infantry to Eastern Persia (incidentally, that infantry can move to NW Persia by USSR Turn 4, when he can attack Iraq with several mech infantry and tanks).

Atlantic Theater: Move all ships to SZ 109.  If the transport at 106 survived, bring the infantry and tank.  If the transport at 109 survived, go to SZ 106 so it can pick up the infantry and artillery next turn.  If Germany moved the battleship into SZ 110 or 111 and it remains,  attack it with all aircraft only.  If Germany purchased subs, move one destroyer into SZ 110 to block and protect SZ 109.

[ch0senfktard]

Actually, an attack on SZ 97 has really good odds for the UK if they send everything that’s available to attack.
But if Germany threatens Sea Lion, then its not really a good idea to send out the planes from England.

[z0m4d]

Insert Quote
Actually, an attack on SZ 97 has really good odds for the UK if they send everything that’s available to attack.

At first I thought you were mistaken. If Germany lands at least one fighter on Southern Italy, they can scramble 3. Pushing the SZ 98 fleet, Gibraltar fighter, and Malta fighter still wins only 46% of the time.  (For some reason I’m not allowed to post links, otherwise I would to the battle calculator.)

But you’re right, you can add one fighter and one bomber from England (not both fighters, since they and the Gibraltar fighter must land on the carrier). That raises the odds of winning to 93% against 3 scramblers, but there are some issues with that.  First, the UK fleet is dead to a counterattack, and the Italians will still have 1x sub, 2x destroyers, 1x cruiser, and 2x transports. Secondly, the Malta fighter, carrier tactical bomber, and strategic bomber from England all have to land on Malta, leaving them also susceptible to a counterattack the next turn. So even in this case the Italians have total Mediterranean naval control, only now there’s no UK fleet left to harass them.

Not saying you’re wrong per se, just sharing some counter analysis. What are your thoughts?

[ch0senfktard]

I haven’t been able to do an all out attack on Italy yet, but…
If Germany completely stays away from any Sea Lion, then I would send 2 fighters and a bomber from England to attack SZ 97.
Use the Gibraltar Fighter to attack SZ 96 (Hopefully alongside a Cruiser).
If the SZ 91 Cruiser is dead, then you can send a Destroyer to tag along with the Gibralta Fighter in SZ 96.
(The battle in SZ 97 would then be around 80% chance to win if Axis scrambles.)

The Gib Fighter, Malta Fighter, SZ 98 Tac and England Strategic Bomber will land in Malta.
The Italians will probably be left with just their few ships in SZ 95 and their bomber.

Now about any counter attacks…
Whatever UK ships that remain in SZ 97 is susceptible to a German counter attack (via Luftwaffe) leaving the rest in the Mediterranean to Italy with her remaining ships and air force. However, all units in Malta would be pretty much guaranteed to be safe. (Assuming the Destroyer and Transport off Malta are destroyed.)

But if the Axis are smart enough to not scramble…
If the attack in SZ 96 is successful, then Italy will only have 1 transport, 1 cruiser, 2 fighters and 1 bomber to attack Malta with. Malta is still probably safe, but most likely at quite a cost to both Italy and UK if Italy invades.

(I’m assuming that all of the planes that will land in Malta survive.)

Italy cannot replace its units as easily as UK does and since Germany will probably be focusing on Russia, UK will be focusing on Italy. So although Italy may have its Mediterranean NO, it would only be a matter of time before UK beats them back. Italy might also have USA breathing down its neck after Turn 4.

Haven’t tried any of this out yet on the Europe map alone, but I’ve been wondering about how would this end up.

[z0m4d]

You know, the more I think about it, the more like your Turn 1 plan for UK.  It’s absolutely devastating to Italy!  If they can also take out the SZ 96 Destroyer and transport (with Gibraltar fighter and SZ 91 cruiser or SZ 98 destroyer), then I wonder if the SZ 98 can amphibious assault Tobruk.  It’d be 3x infantry, 2x arty, mech inf and tank versus 3x infantry, 1x arty, mech inf, and tank.  Approx 66% win.  Or divert one fighter from the SZ 97 fight?

Given your first turn UK strategy or the addition of a Tobruk amphib assault, how can Italy recover?  Buy nothing first turn to save for a fleet purchase on Turn 2, then take Gibraltar, leaving the transport exposed?

[ch0senfktard]

Its the reason why you continually see people talk about sea lion around here.
If Germany doesn’t threaten the UK, Italy suffers greatly.

There is just no way Italy can adequately recover. There is only so much that Germany can do to support Italy at that point.
Perhaps they can start threatening the UK, but whats the point if UK has already decimated Italy?
It could have been prevented from the start.

About Tobruk… I’ve never thought about that. Always went to Ethiopia.
Whether an amphibious assault on Tobruk is a success or failure, Italy won’t be in a good position to take North Africa afterward, so its probably worth it.
Although, you’ll have a small Italian force running around central Africa…

Italy can build whatever naval/air force buys it wants, the allies will have a bigger and better force in the Mediterranean soon in this scenario, especially if the US chooses to go through the Med.

But I suppose Italy doesn’t have any other choice, eh?

[z0m4d]

So how do you threaten Sealion?  Purchase 4x transports on Turn 1?  If Germany changes his mind, he could use them to bolster Finland, then attack Leningrad?

[Spendo02]

UK SHOULD abandon Africa early, let Italy take the Med and lose units getting Greece and Egypt to get two NO’s.

During that time, move your fleet around the horn of Africa and build maybe 1 SS a round out of S.Africa and/or Canada.  At the same time, stack up on Gibraltar with your aircraft.  Only Germany could open up Gibraltar for Italy at that point.  You can always reinforce Egypt with the aircraft out of India if you want to make it annoying for Italy to take Egypt.

By the time your ships make it to outside of Gibraltar by sailing around the horn, you should have enough subs, reinforced by both your American friends and your own ships to move into the Med, deny Italy its NO and put into force the convoy on Italy to shut her down by round 4-5.

Just my two cents.

[z0m4d]

Very interesting, Spendor.  So UK doesn’t make it back to Gibraltar until Turn 4 when US can rendezvous.

[Spendo02]

Yup, thats the premise of it.  I don’t see a reason to sacrifice ships that you’ll have to replace in order to make European landings in rounds 5-7 in order to deny Italy some IPC via NO’s early. Because lets be honest, once the Allies are in the Med, its game over for Italy’s expansion.

To further that, I don’t care for taking dicey rolls (no pun intended) on 60-40 win scenarios based on a single die or two rolling in your favor.  Considering the game takes multiple turns to develop, sacrificing so much hardware early seems counter productive to a long-term view of the game.

[z0m4d]

I also try to avoid 60/40 rolls (when I know in advance the odds… I can’t calculate that well on the fly, only trusting faulty intuition). However, I want to try ch0senfktard’s strategy a couple times.  It might be worth sacrificing the UK fleet if it sets Italy back.  The only thing Axis have going for them is early momentum and time to advance before all-out-war.  If you can stop that momentum early, even if it costs a lot of “hardware,” it might be worth it.  I really enjoy reading all these different strategies!

[ch0senfktard]

@z0m4d:

I also try to avoid 60/40 rolls (when I know in advance the odds… I can’t calculate that well on the fly, only trusting faulty intuition). However, I want to try ch0senfktard’s strategy a couple times.  It might be worth sacrificing the UK fleet if it sets Italy back.  The only thing Axis have going for them is early momentum and time to advance before all-out-war.  If you can stop that momentum early, even if it costs a lot of “hardware,” it might be worth it.  I really enjoy reading all these different strategies!

I’ve thought about it some more… Even if Germany threatens to do a sea lion, maybe it is still worth sending those fighters. Maybe. Because no matter what Germany does, America will be in Europe in full force, so they may build up a London liberation force… Eh… seems okay, yet seems pretty bad at the same time. Thinking about it more makes sea lion seem like a bad option for Germany in Europe 1940 because of the USA… I have to play Europe 1940 some more.

Now perhaps I should get more on topic or at least somewhat.
I have employed a semi-abandon Egypt strategy in Global 1940 once.
I say semi because a good size of my forces were somehow still in Egypt by the Italian turn and could have been destroyed, but my opponent feared my possible counter attack, so he backed off… which may or may not have been his biggest mistake. I was able to keep him from getting Egypt from there on.

I had South Africa pumping out Transports with infantry and artillery from Turn 1. Eventually I had it so that transports were putting troops in Egypt from South Africa every turn, plus an eventual minor in Egypt sealed Italy’s fate.

I have only played Europe 1940 once and that was as the Axis. So I have yet to use any Allied strategy in just Europe.

[z0m4d]

Yeah, fear of the counterattack, and how you react to it, is a crucial aspect!  I tend to play too conservatively.  A couple differences with the Global version: you have two additional infantry on Egypt (ANZAC) and the Indian Ocean navy/ground units can play a strong role, depending on what’s going on in the Pacific.  My little experience is that there’s enough time to divert away from India to stop Italy early in the game, and then back to India by the time Japan is a threat there.

I never thought of buying a transport and two infantry.  First, because the transports are vulnerable to attack when they drop off at Egypt (remember, withdrawing the Med Fleet is a new strategy for me).  And two, because I usually buy some combination of three mech infantry or tanks.  It’s cheaper, but takes two turns to get to Egypt.

[ch0senfktard]

Perhaps 2 Mechs and 1 Tank would be better off for battle in Africa than 1 Infantry, 1 Artillery and 1 Transport.
They’re both 14 IPCs to buy.

However… If and when the allies secure Africa, those transports can then be used to invade Italy, Southern France, Greece, Yugoslavia… Or perhaps taken out of the med towards elsewhere in Europe. Of course, in this strategy, Britain would have to retreat its Med fleet out of the Med.

[Spendo02]

For 14 IPC you can get yourself 1 Inf, 1 Art and 1 TT in S.Africa.  You probably don’t want to employ this until Germany makes it clear that Sea Lion is not going to happen, but it can happen as early as UK2, which means UK3 you can land that in S.Africa (or anywhere on the non-Atlantic side of Africa to include Iraq!??!).  Or you could stage it in the Atlantic to reinforce Gib or stage to threaten Italy as early as UK5 (2 purchase, 3 and 4 to outside Gib, then either 1-2 punch Denmark for a US move to Berlin or head into the Med).  Of course, you can speed this up with purchases off Canada, but that requires you eliminate German SS from the Atlantic in that first round of combat in SZ106 (I think thats the SZ) which is far from a certain battle.

In either case, you can’t rely on those TT if you don’t have ships to protect them, which falls directly into my purpose of evacuating the Med early in order to threaten Italy where it has to make a choice to go after Egypt and be multiple turns from reinforcement or protecting Rome/S.France).

That being said, Italy’s best move is to harass Russia with can-openers and reinforce Europe from Allied invasions or to ignore advances for NO’s and continue to build a fleet to make it difficult for the Allies to advance into the Med.  At best, with Italy I’d ignore Egypt unless it was handed to me because its too expensive to take and hold.  Only in Global is it realistic for Italy to take and hold Egypt, which requires Japan’s relentless advance in the Pacific to rival the US IPC income and force the US hand to spend in the Pacific - which is moot in a Europe only game.

[theROCmonster]

Don’t abandon Egypt. Build a factory T2 there. you can hold this pretty easy if played right. Of course this all depends on whether or not Germany builds a lot of transports on T2. Also if Germany doesn’t build a carrier and 2 transports attack SZ97. If he does it might be best to retreat the med