Thank you! Following up on that, my reasoning would be:
(a) If there’s no Russian sub in SZ16 and Germany does the Egypt attack, I can’t see a very good reason for the AC + transport buy on G1. The AC won’t protect the battleship, and the battleship itself can only be attacked by the UK with one bomber and one fighter, when any surviving UK planes need to land in Transjordan. That’s a risky attack anyway, and if the battleship kills one of the planes, the UK would need to let the bomber go, because if the fighter dies and the bomber lands, Transjordan may be a tempting target for a G2 attack from Egypt supported by a fighter or two. In that case, the only benefit of having an extra German transport in SZ14 would be to further reinforce that attack on Transjordan - so it seems like a costly measure to counter a UK move that doesn’t look very good anyway.
So without the Russian sub I wouldn’t buy any German navy on G1 because it wouldn’t really contribute to the safety of the German med fleet anyway - and if the fleet is still around on G2 and looks like being in danger by then, I can always move it back to SZ14 and do the AC buy on G2.
(b) If there is a Russian sub in SZ16, then I’d be inclined to buy an AC and a destroyer rather than another transport in SZ14, because I don’t understand why I’d need two transports there. In that case, suppose that Russia has taken the Ukraine and killed a German fighter, Germany can still send three fighters after the UK destroyer in SZ15, and land two of them on the new AC. I’d prefer to kill the SZ15 destroyer rather than the SZ13 cruiser, because the cruiser has a bigger chance of downing one of the German planes, and also, if the destroyer lives, the UK may sail its SZ35 fleet to SZ15, and with the Russian sub added, it will be too strong to effectively kill it on G2 - and leaving it there allows the UK to attack the German fleet with the fleet plus land based planes.
So in that case I suppose Germany could take Egypt on G2 overland, and possibly Transjordan amphibiously unless the UK reinforces it heavily, in which it can still be attacked on G3. After the work in the East Mediterranean is done, the German fleet could move to SZ13, reunite with whatever is left of the Baltic fleet if that moves to SZ7 on G1, and be reinforced by Japan. That won’t be enough to match the combined UK/US naval buying power of course, but at least it forces them to pour some money into buying enough capital ships to protect the Atlantic from a German air/naval raid.
Does all of that make any sense?