@Pvt.Ryan:
Okay so we’ve all talked about how what the war would have turned out to be like if the Soviets did join or if Germany didn’t attack Russia. But here’s a shocker. What if they joined the AXIS!!! Read this article (I haven’t but it gave me the inspiration to post this).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks
What would have happened? I think that the Allies would have been SMASHED! China would have collapsed and Sovet troops attacking Persia then India and moving through the Middle East! Soviets invading Britain! CRAZY!!! :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o
That was a good read! :)
The crux of the article was the following:
Instead of two secret protocols, Stalin proposed five:
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that German troops depart Finland in exchange for a Soviet guarantee of continued nickel and wood shipments and peace with Finland;
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a mutual assistance pact be signed with Bulgaria in the next few months permitting Soviet bases
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The center of Soviet territorial domination would be south of Baku and Batumi (ports in modern Azerbaijan and Georgia, south of which are Iraq and Iran)
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Japanese renunciation of rights to northern Sakhalin oil and coal concessions in exchange for appropriate compensation
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Affirms that the Soviet-Bulgaria mutual assistance treaty was a political necessity.[79]
The offer came concurrently with massive German-favorable economic offers.[78] The Soviets promised, by May 11, 1941 the delivery of 2.5 million tons of grain—1 million tons above its current obligations.[79]
Suppose Hitler had responded to the above-described proposals with the following:
- Germany retains no more than five divisions in Finland at any given time, with Soviet inspections allowed to ensure compliance.
- Pressure on Turkey to allow Germany and the Soviet Union to each have a fort + coastal batteries overlooking the passage from the Mediterranean to the Black Seas.
- Rejection of the Soviets’ demand for bases in Bulgaria. A Soviet coastal battery along the strait to the Black Sea would partially address Soviet concerns about access to the Black Sea, as would the agreement that German, Italian, and Japanese naval ships would not be allowed passage into the Black Sea.
- Instead of describing the Soviet offer of mutual assistance to Bulgaria as a “political necessity,” the Soviets’ offer would be praised as a concrete step towards European peace. The Bulgarian government would also receive praise. The objective here would have been to avoid painting the pro-German Bulgarian government in a negative light.
- Acceptance of the Soviets’ other proposals, except that Germany would try to bargain for an increase in the proposed grain shipments.
What actually happened was that Hitler did not respond to the Soviets’ proposal described above. Instead, he invaded the Soviet Union, in part because he and the German military had vastly underestimated the Red Army’s ability to quickly recruit truly massive numbers of men. Suppose that instead, Hitler had made the above-described counter-offer, and Stalin had accepted it. What then?
My sense is that Stalin had no interest in invading the British Isles outright, or in becoming a participant in the air and sea war between Britain and Germany. However, he may have been interested in adding places such as Persia and India to the Soviet Union. The question is whether he would have acted immediately, or would have waited until England was taken. FDR was no fan of British imperialism, and had once proposed a Soviet-style revolution for India. It is difficult to imagine that he personally would have major objections to Soviet southward expansion, though political pressure might force him to engage in anti-Soviet rhetoric or symbolic measures. The question is whether Stalin would have realized how little non-British resistance there would be.
Assume, for the sake of argument, that the Soviet Union took South Asia, Germany, Italy, and Vichy France took the rest of Africa, and Japan took southeast Asia, Indonesia, New Guinea, and possibly Australia. The British Commonwealth would be reduced to little more than the British Isles and Canada. Presumably, the loss of all that territory would crimp its own ability to produce aircraft, and (importantly) its ability to pay for U.S.-built aircraft. While FDR personally would have had no objection to lending them more and more money, at some point someone might point out that Britain was near bankruptcy. That might have put limits on the number of aircraft the U.S. could send each year. Meanwhile, Germany could focus on increasing its industrial capacity. While it probably wouldn’t have been able to produce as many military aircraft as could the combined Anglo-American production effort, it might have been able to remain within shouting distance. The plan here would be to remain in the war indefinitely, until the lack of military success, increasing financial duress, and other problems forced a change in Britain’s political leadership; thereby making a peace treaty possible. Germany could offer to restore some of Britain’s colonies to sweeten the deal.
All this assumes that Stalin would have sat passively by and watched this happen. There is a chance he would have done exactly that: he realized the Soviet Union was not ready for war, and he wanted several years to prepare. On the other hand, he did not want a peace treaty between Britain and Germany: he regarded both nations as enemies, and wanted them to bleed each other white. It’s possible he would have seen a Soviet invasion of Germany as the best way of keeping Britain in the war, especially if it looked as though Churchill’s support was beginning to falter. On the other hand, waiting would give him the chance to consolidate his gains in South Asia, add millions of Indian and Pakistani men to the Red Army, and prepare for the invasion of Germany in the late '40s or early '50s. By then, the U.S. government might have been significantly less pro-Soviet than it had been during and immediately after WWII. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union would, very likely, have been strong enough to succeed with its invasion, even if the Western democracies remained neutral.