I’m sorry, I don’t think I was clear. My bad. What I’m saying is:
If you remove the trigger, the UK/ANZAC will NEVER have a reason to attack first. It’s rare now, but it will be nonexistant because if the US has no US3 (or whatever) trigger and UK/ANZAC hit first, the following seems to be the long game winner:
Japan utterly crushes Anzac/UK with free reign of the Pacific. They confine them to Calcutta and Sydney and convoy raid all income away. They take EVERY money territory, AND China, and the US STILL cannot enter the war.
As this is going on, Germany and Italy hold Russia but do NOT capture those cities you mentioned. They take Africa, they reduce the UK and convoy raid her to nothing, and they hold Russia. And the US still cannot do anything. Russia cannot take Germany and Italy alone, and the US still cannot participate. As soon as Japan has the utter advantage, they finally invade, block US movement and win.
You can keep the US out completely because you can stall and steal the win by leaving them perpetually neutral. Sure, that FINAL round, they’re at war, but through stalls and multiple simultaneous strikes, I don’t see how the US could reset everything. I think the loss of that trigger will ELIMINATE the UK first strike because Japan can get a nearly permanent free hand. Let them build up, but eventually, 100 rounds in, the US loses.
Thus, the UK/ANZAC will NEVER attack first. They’ll lose. I don’t see how they could possibly win if Japan then purposefully ignored the US war triggers.