Please Find the Hole in this Strat

[Hobbes]

I think the main counter to that strat would have to come from the UK/China/ANZAC. If Japan takes San Francisco and Hawaii then the IPC numbers would be something like this:

Japan
26 (starting) + 15 (US production) + 10 NOs + Chinese territories = 50 something (plus the US money)

But UK would have around 37, ANZAC 15 and China 12-15, meaning that the 3 would outproduce Japan. It would be a matter of kicking Japan out of Asia and afterwards to build an UK/ANZAC navy to deal with the IJN. The best use for the UK transports would be to take DEI and heavily garrison then move to get Korea and Manchuria. Losing Asia would mean less 15 IPCs from Japan.

[Gwlachmai]

I really haven’t seen any strats that target the US that I think are solid. First off, in turn one when the entire Japanese navy converges on Japan, you have to figure it’s for a push on Hawaii, otherwise the farthest south you can push is the Phillipines and Hong Kong. When nearly your entire airforce lands on Japan I’m thinking you’re either going to try for Western US or Landing them in the Marshal Islands. Either way I’m the cautious type, I’ll usually err on the side of defending my capital, so the US buys 5 infantry, evacuates the Phillipines (fighter to Guam, bomber to Hawaii, and everything else to seazone 54) and moves a destroyer into midway to block a turn two invasion of Hawaii. Meanwhile Anzac fighters land in Queensland.

Turn 2, it’s now quite obvious what you’re attacking, US buys 8 more infantry. Since you now do not have any combat ships that can hit Hawaii the entire fleet masses there with the exception of a cruiser who stays on the west coast to prevent any shore bombardment in a J3 invasion. All airunits (including carrier forces) now land in the US, with the exception of the fighter in Guam, he flys to Wake. This leaves a total garrison of 16 Infantry, a mechanized infantry, an arty, a tank, 3 fighters, 3 tac bombers and 3 bombers. By round 2 the UK has snatched up the DEI.

Turn 3 lets assume you adequetly guard your transports, which means you’ll need to leave the bulk of your navy in sea zone 2. On the US turn I buy 7 infantry (leaving one IPC) and my only combat moves will be to send my sub to Japan to kill your unguarded transports (air units will not be able to strike my sub, and you have not bought any destroyers to protect your home sea zone) and two destroyers kill your two subs off the West Coast. Also the two transports in Hawaii now move four more infantry into the West Coast, the fighter at Wake lands there too for a total of 27 Infantry, a mechanized infantry, an arty, a tank, 4 fighters, 3 tac bombers and 3 bombers.  Four Anzac fighters fly to Hawaii and South East Asia is probably in shambles by now.

Turn 4, as you mass everything in Alaska the US buys five infantry, a tank and four fighters. Leaving a defense of 32 Infantry, a mechanized infantry, an arty, 2 tanks, 8 fighters (12 when Anzac lands), 3 tac bombers, and 3 bombers, making it unlikely you’ll take America.

[Xayd74]

The max # of inf I calculate is 35 at the end of round 4.
3 Native.
2 from Hawaii.
5 Purchased at round 1 totalling 10 in WUS and 2 IPC.
8 Purchased at round 2 totalling 18 in WUS and 0 IPC.
7 Purchased at round 3 totalling 25 in WUS and 1 IPC.
10 Purchased at round 4 totalling 35 in WUS and 2 IPC.

I would assume that you would buy 8 tanks and 1 destroyer in round 4 instead for a total of…
25 Inf
9 Tanks
1 Mechanized
1 Artillery
3 Bombers
3 Tacticals
4 Fighters
& 1 SZ10 Bombardment blocking Destroyer
This assumes the abandonment of the carrier by round 2.

In my test, I had…
14 Inf
11 Tanks
1 Mechanized
1 Artillery
3 Bombers
1 Tactical
2 Fighters
& No destroyer

So that’s…
11 additional Infantry
2 fewer tanks
2 additional Tacticals
2 additional Fighters
1 Destroyer
(which is effectively 11 more Inf, 2 more fighters, and 2 lost bombardment hits [statistically])
Based on that, I would say WUS could not be taken. But…

• At the end of J1, it is unclear what Japan is intending to do.
• At the end of J2, with 7 transports on the ready, it is clear they intend to attack, but most likely it will be Pearl because of the stigma associated with attacking WUS. Japan cannot reach WUS in 1 move. So the US fleet most likely moves to Pearl along with it’s loaded carrier. The US will most likely have left the fighter and tactical on Pearl (for scrambles) along with the two infantry and perhaps 2 more, but we’ll just say not.
• With the move to Pearl, the J3 response is different. 3 or 4 transports offload in Alaska with the help of 2 destroyers and a carrier, or just 3 destroyers (I’m uncertain). The rest of the JIN and transports attack Pearl offloading tanks and perhaps two planes for the ground assault depending on the defending force and whether they scrambled. The truth is you dont need much of a navy after this, just your bombard ships, and maybe not even them if the US destroyer is purchased to prevent bombardment.

Now in doing this, the US is down 2 infantry, 2 tacticals and 2 fighters. Perhaps 4 infantry if there were trying to reinforce Honolulu. That would reduce the WUS’s survivability quite a bit. Though it’s still a tall order with 23 Inf and 11 tanks. You would have lose virtually all your planes. But again, I dont see how it would matter if you actually took WUS. I heard what you said about the UK/ANZAC picking up steam IPCwise, but looting the US’s treasury and the additional 15 IPC every round would make up for that I’m sure. They would hold the fort well and get nicely dug in. But now Japan has the luxury of going after Australia before Asia.

[JamesG]

Also, see this thread for some discussion of “Kill USA First”:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16127.0

[Xayd74]

@JamesG:

Also, see this thread for some discussion of “Kill USA First”:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16127.0

Holy crap, I didnt even think about that. I was performing convoy disruption to WUS and Mexico during rounds 3 & 4 and did not account the lost US IPCs. Now it wouldnt be 12 IPCs cause I didnt have that much value in ships, but it would probably be about 7 or 8 for two rounds.

[Gwlachmai]

It’s really Theory & Allies when you get into point and counter point. You asked for a counter to your strat, and I gave you what I feel a decent US player would do in response. I see it as a horrible tactic, one that will doom Japan, we’ve born this out one night in four seperate games where Japan attempted to take the West Coast early on, luckily they were all fairly fast games, so we still had time to start what I would consider a real game.

Also on turn two when Japan moves to seazone 8 your combat ships cannot reach Hawaii, so it’s really not under threat now. My infantry calculation are based on:

3 Infantry in Western US
2 in Hawaii
2 in Phillipines (moved over with the transport)
5 bought in turn 1
8 bought in turn two
7 bought in turn three
5 bought in turn four (along with a tank and four fighters)
–----
32 Infantry

If you base your entire fleet off the west coast your trasports will be ripped apart by the US bombers, so IPC’s lost for the US will be more then made up for by the Japanese transport costs. This has been played out in a few of our games and the US has more then enough tools at their disposal to defend themselves.

Edit: Why would you assume I’d make that purchase in turn four, especially when I stated what I would buy for the US. You also seem to want to ignore the Anzac fighters in America. There is no reason not to fly them there. The DEI’s or Australia is certainly not under threat.

[Xayd74]

Ah, right you are. There is a path to get all 4 ANZAC fighters up there in A4. You got me there :)

[Stoney229]

I have succeeded with a “kill USA first” strategy before, but if the US player sees Jap is set up for this strategy, don’t you think they will be able to keep Alaska from being captured and held?  Even though they can’t enter/go through Brit. Col. until they are at war, they can still use naval blocking and land units/planes in Alaska, keeping Japan from gaining a landing zone, don’t you think?

[Gwlachmai]

It doesn’t really matter if Alaska is kept or held. It’s all about diverting enough of Japans resources to a fruitless venture, while India and the Anzacs are cleaning up the south pacific. Once US switches to a wartime economy and Japan is still pulling in 30-35 IPC’s a turn it’s pretty much over. All your forces will be facing an American enemy that is out producing you while you steadily lose ground in Asia.

[Vareel]

This is simple to stop.

US1 DD block in SZ 7 & shuck some units to alaska.  Buy tanks with the US.  The key is to keep Japan from having an LZ for there planes to attack WUS with.  The moment Japan declares war the US can play hide & seek inside of canada to prevent Japan from having a place to put there planes.  No where for planes to land, no luck for Japan to win at WUS.

[pmelmike]

UK and ANZAC would play a huge roll in this.  If they build 1 sub per turn and your entire navy is off the coast of the US, then they are free to roam the pacific doing convoy disruptions and killing your transports.  I think this would make the US attack unaffordable and result in a quick loss.  Not to mention, that the entire time you are ignoring them they are just refortifiying their defenses.

[Veqryn]

forgive me but what is the conveyor belt strat?

[Stoney229]

@Gwlachmai:

It doesn’t really matter if Alaska is kept or held. It’s all about diverting enough of Japans resources to a fruitless venture, while India and the Anzacs are cleaning up the south pacific. Once US switches to a wartime economy and Japan is still pulling in 30-35 IPC’s a turn it’s pretty much over. All your forces will be facing an American enemy that is out producing you while you steadily lose ground in Asia.

Wrong.  If Japan is able to land all it’s planes in alaska and then attack USA with them, Wus will fall.  You can argue that Jap will have then lost against UK/ANZ/Chi, but it’s a tough argument since Japan gets one turn to spend 100+ IPC to replenish what it lost regaining Wus, and while it’s income is now only in the 40s, it no longer has to worry about the US and has a much more contiguous front against the rest of the Allies.  However, If the US player knows what’s coming, they should be able to hold on to Alaska.

[Gwlachmai]

Japan can bring every plane it posses to the US, by the time they’re ready to attack, the Western US will be more then able to repel the attack. Obviously if the Western US falls Japan will likely win the game, even without the 40 IPC NO bonus. What does Japan bring in that can beat potentially 32 Infantry, a mechanized infantry, an arty, 2 tanks, 8 fighters (12 when Anzac fighters lands), 3 tac bombers, and 3 bombers? This force averages over 20 kills on the defense.

Every strat I’ve seen that involves an attempt to take the US involves the US player blithely ignoring any invasion signs and making poor purchases. If the Japanese fleet moves toward the US, assume an invasion is coming, heck if they mass up in Seazone 6 on turn one, assume it’s coming. It’s silly not too, the US is the primary adversary for Japan, you cannot afford to chance it falling. Feel free to post your strat on how to successfully invade the Western US, I’m sure it’ll be picked apart. I really think that the San Fran rush was likely extensively tested, and it’s just not going to happen against any kind of decent player.