What percentage is luck involved in a games outcome?

[Guest]

An excellent point, especially coming on the results of a game I just finished…

Is it luck to get teh 1 in 10 result for a given battle?  Or is it poor play that allowed you to be a situation where you were dependent on a 4 in 5 result or face certain defeat?

Sure, the odds say you will usually win, but if can AVOID the 8 in 10 risk and the possibility of the 1 in 10 result and till achieve your goals toward victory, would that not be superior play?

[Baghdaddy]

@ncscswitch:

… but if can AVOID the 8 in 10 risk and the possibility of the 1 in 10 result and till achieve your goals toward victory, would that not be superior play?

Quite possiblly but very boring…

[Guest]

Boring tends to win… Most of the time.

[Magister]

Good… then a working definition of Skill would be “that thing that would need less Luck” ??

[Baghdaddy]

Skillful play == play that bores your opponent into making a mistake.  :evil:

[Guest]

Skillful play means play that forces your opponent to TAKE RISKS in order to try to keep from losing.

Dice tend to even out, so the player that relies on them the least will USUALLY win.

[frood]

@ncscswitch:

Skillful play means play that forces your opponent to TAKE RISKS in order to try to keep from losing.

Dice tend to even out, so the player that relies on them the least will USUALLY win.

Skillful play can also force your opponent to not make any moves or retreat b/c they are exposed to unacceptable risk if they do. Of course, not moving, or retreating, can carry its own risk, even if it avoids any dice.

[cyan]

@Baghdaddy:

Skillful play == play that bores your opponent into making a mistake.   :evil:

for some reason war of attrition popped into my head as i read that.

[Guest]

I have won several games by boring my opponent with my moves so that they “forced” a battle to try to break things open, and thus lost.

[NoMercy]

all depends on the opponents number 1.

if 2 opponents are about equal then I would say 1-4 games out of 10 games “Luck” may have a serious impact on a game.
it’s a part of the game.

@ncscswitch:

I have won several games by boring my opponent with my moves so that they “forced” a battle to try to break things open, and thus lost.

Boring my opponent is a favourite of mine with the allies :), sometimes Lady Luck doesn’t always go your way when the opponent is forced to make a move and you think it is in your favor but that’s what makes Axis and Allies a fun game.

[Crazy Ivan]

:-o
  This thread has been very edjucational, witty and sometimes boring, ( I laughed and I went to sleep).
  What I got out of the original Query was this; In my opinion, what % of games I played do I think the die results were the determining factor as to the outcome of the game. Because I can only view this from one viewpoint; Mine :roll:
  So, my gut feeling was about 70% of the time, when I felt I was playing those of rather equal experience, and sharing comparitively the same statregy concepts.
Luck builds on itself. A little here a little more there, and if it is good to one player more than the other, it will decide the outcome.
But we play on, hoping it will smile on us again, and we can be the master once more :wink:
  All in all, we don’t rely on the luck as much as try to learn to be better players, introduce a new winning strategy and all the AA world will beat a path to your gameboard and try to counter it.
Play on my gaming friends, damn the luck, cause if it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have any at all :cry: or; my strategies suck :|
  I look forward to meeting some of you in the gameroom,
  Crazy Ivan
  By the way, can anyone tell me how to get there from here?

[Guest]

You can’t.  Because once you are there, you are here.  :evil:

[axis_roll]

@Crazy:

By the way, can anyone tell me how to get there from here?

Very simple

add a “T”.

[newpaintbrush]

@axis_roll:

@Crazy:

By the way, can anyone tell me how to get there from here?

Very simple

add a “T”.

Lol.

That sure would make working in the “IT” department a lot more interesting.

[axis_roll]

ttt

[newpaintbrush]

@newpaintbrush:

@axis_roll:

@Crazy:

By the way, can anyone tell me how to get there from here?

Very simple

add a “T”.

Lol.

That sure would make working in the “IT” department a lot more interesting.

@axis_roll:

ttt

No, that would be the TIT department, not the TTT department.

[Lucifer]

To answer the topic title, too much if played with reg dice.

Lowluck is the name of the game.

[frood]

Good lord this is still alive? I have written so much here.

Okay. Read the question, it says, “All things being as equal as possible regarding player skill, what percentage does luck influence the outcome of the game”.

The answer to this question really depends on whether there is any factor aside from luck and skill that affects the outcome. The question effectively defines a scenario where skill will not make any difference between the players, because the players are “as equal as possible” in that regard. So the game CANNOT be decided to any significant degree on the basis of skill, because it is equal.

I guess the other problem with the question is what is meant by luck. Obviously dice are part of luck, but there may be other factors in luck. If you miss something on the map, is that luck or is that skill? Are there other ways that luck can enter the game.

I think however that the question means dice when it says luck, and assumes that dice and skill are the only two factors. Logically, when you neutralize one of the two factors, the outcome will be decided 100% by the other factor.

Eg. suppose you are playing chess, or NO LUCK A&A (hits determined completely according to punch / 6, rounded). Then there is no element of luck, so skill makes 100% of the difference.

However, players of equal skill playing chess against each other will not always tie. Since there is no question of luck (or is there?) you have to say that the winner in each game played more skillfully than the loser. The fact is that we do not play with a 100% consistent level of skill. Some days you are on the ball, others you are not. So then are you lucky if you happen to be “on” on a given day, or are you “more skillful”?

The question is not sufficiently defined to be capable of a meaningful answer.

[axis_roll]

Ticky tack!  You guys are so nit picky.

The Spirit of the question was to try to see how much the luck of the dice is involved in a games outcome.  I tried to eliminate the element of difference in skill levels between players to more isolate the issue of dice ‘luck’ versus dice averages.

Hence the caveat:

“All things being as equal as possible regarding player skill…”

We are not using any imperical means of measurement here.  I am not trying to find how many standard deviations exist in Axis and Allies or other statistical measures of dice.

There is no right or wrong answer.

I guess maybe there is no way to properly ask this question.

[axis_roll]

To me, the timing of key dice can make a huge difference in a game.

Two examples in my last game of war:

SZ59, UK1.  DD on Tpt.  DD misses, tpt hits.  HUGE!

statistically, this is not outside the realm of possibilities.  I’ve seen this happen before, I am sure it will happen again.

On defense, the allied player rolled 100% hits on defense against Germanys 2nd round attacks.
2-for-2, 3-for-3, 2-for-2.

Again, statistically, this is not outside the realm of possibilities.  I’ve seen this happen before, I am sure it will happen again.  But also, again, HUGE in terms of the battles in which these occured.

THIS is the sort of thing I am looking for….

Thanks! :mrgreen: