Hey guys, I dont mean to sound like a neophyte here, but I assume when you say J1, you mean Japan attacks the US on the 1st turn, presumably in the Phillipines. My own experience says this is not sound judgment. Let say you commit forces to grab the phillipines. You just dropped US production by 7 and increased yours by 7. That’s a 14 IPC difference in favor of the empire. Now of course you just increased US production by 40 two rounds early. By my count, that’s 28 vs 80 over those two rounds. Economically speaking, it’s not sound, so let’s talk about strategic value…
The phillipines cannot produce. They have to be reinforced by ships that take 3 rounds to arrive. During those first 3 rounds, the allies use peacetime to send the biggest fleet possible down to support the phillipines while rebuilding Western US fleet for the eventual assault on Japan (supported by at least 4 bombers on Midway, three of which were grabbed from the phillipines, hawaii and west-usa). Once all that is done, you have a noteworthy fleet in the phillipines and some nice IPC (7) to support the war effort). That sounds nice, but…
If that fleet ever leaves the phillipines, the phillipines are vulnerable. So they are stuck there, providing only IPC protection and the threat of a sneak attack deterrent. They certainly dont have the units to perform some kind of an asian invasion. Since the phillipines cant produce, I’m not even sure what the value of the island actually is, other than the 7 IPC. The usa cant trickle more ships down there after peacetime ends, so their effectively cut off from reinforcements as well. Unless you later decide to send down a big protected fleet, but that will take 3 turns, ruin your offensive, and give away your plans long before they come to fruition.
Based on all of that, if I was japan, I would not attack the phillipines until round 4. And if the US had a sizable fleet down there, then I’d just let em sit there the whole game until they decided to foolishly attack my fleet and leave the tasty IPC production of the phillipines unprotected.