@Subotai:
When claiming nothing is left to chance in LL you confuse theory with reality.
I’m not saying that. I’m saying that are some battles where you have 100% chance of having the result you desire; remember, 100%, not 99,999999 %. And that battles can be very important and happen many times -> trades, strafing, naval battles
If you have, say a battle like this:
Attacker: 8 naval units, 42 attack points
Defender: 7 naval units, 35 attack points
In LL, you know attacker will make 7 hits without even roll a dice, and defender will do 5 or 6. So, if you want a small strafe (maybe you have more BBs), your best choice is attack, because there is no chance of things going bad
With normal dices, you know that probably the attacker will hit 7 times and defender 5 or 6 but you have no security of even hitting same as defender -> the battle could go bad, or even utterly bad. So, ¿attack or not attack? You must take into account any possible counters, the board situation and other factor. In general, you should make this attack only if you think you are losing or at least have a 50% of wining the whole game, but if I think I’m winning by much, I would not attack because a good roll will not serve much anyway, but a bad roll can make you lose a game you were winning. Reverse, if I’m losing, I would make this attack.
The same if you have less chances. If I’m losing anyway, I’ll attack (unless crappy odds) just in case I get a good roll. But the defending player should take that into account and don’t move his/her fleet to a place where the attacker can have a decent chance (30% maybe?) of winning, because the losing player will probably make the attack, maybe making you lose a game you were winning. In LL, you can move fleets safely in defense if you make the right maths
It’s even worst if you must make multiple attacks (or planning multiple defenses). In LL, maths will say you what’s the best combo, sometimes with zero chance of error, othertimes with marginal error. With normal dices, you have no clue if some or various advantageous battles will fail
And I like chess, by the way :-)