New odds calc for AAAE

only whimps use odds calculators  :wink:

real men gamble  8-)

Thank YOU!!  :mrgreen:

Neat, tnx :)

Hey, would you mind implementing Radars and Improved Shipyards?

cool, thx!! :-D

id add karma if i could.  :evil:

Sorry for my ignorance, but what the heck am I supposed to do with a .jar file? I know it has something to do with Java.  I used 7-Zip to un-archive it.  Uh…now what?

u need java runtimes installed. u can get it free from sun microsystems. once thats done, you can double click the jar  :wink:

One thing I’ve seen in previous versions is an average value (in IPC) loss as a result of combat.  I really liked that feature.  Is there a way to incorporate that?

EDIT - Oh, yeah… I almost forgot to say… Thanks for the effort!!

EDIT #2 - Never mind about the average IPC loss.  The slick histogram in the “Details” info shows that sufficiently.  Thanks again!

+1!  I miss some of the details of frood, but it looks like it will be a great help!

Wow thanks! Very handy little program.

Great little prog!  The only thing is that when I do a naval or amphibious battle, BBs and SSs are listed, but there is no box to enter units in…  :-(

@Dash_Riprock:

Well the group I play with recently bought the anniversary edition, and since no one else seems to have made one so far, I updated my calculator for the new rules like different unit values, bombardment not insta-kill, planes not hitting subs without destroyers present, ect.

You can get all the possible results by pressing the details button.  Just hold the mouse over to see what units are left for each outcome.
You will need Java installed to run it.

http://www.filefactory.com/file/a03e75h/n/AAProbability_jar

EDIT #3: File once again updated, fixed some minor issues.

I tried your calc.  with 4 subs vs 1 CV with 2 figs.  It should show the same results as 4 subs vs 1 CV, but it did not.  Defending figs. should not be able to hit the attacking subs or be taken as hits.

I tried your calc.  with 4 subs vs 1 CV with 2 figs.  It should show the same results as 4 subs vs 1 CV, but it did not.  Defending figs. should not be able to hit the attacking subs or be taken as hits.

It works fine.

The results are not the same because the attacker can only hope for a “draw” in the case when fighters are present. Since the subs can only hit the CV, the battle will end once this happens because they can’t hit the fighters (and vice-versa). So you end up with forces remaining on both sides (a draw) a high % of the time, whereas the attacker wins a high % of the time (no defenders left) when the fighters aren’t present.

Run the battles again, you’ll see that the chance of victory for the subs in the case where fighters are not present is the same as the chance to draw in the case where they are. So the results are the same, its just categorized as a draw in one case.

Does anybody have the .jar that they can either attach here or send my way?  I am unable to dl it without upgrading to FileFactory Premium, and I don’t want to do that.

@Vreely:

Does anybody have the .jar that they can either attach here or send my way?  I am unable to dl it without upgrading to FileFactory Premium, and I don’t want to do that.

YHEM :mrgreen:

Does anybody have the .jar that they can either attach here or send my way?  I am unable to dl it without upgrading to FileFactory Premium, and I don’t want to do that.

You don’t have to upgrade to Premium, there is a second option to download for free. I didn’t sign up for anything.

I’d just attach the file to this post, but it won’t let me attach a .jar file.

I was finally able to get it after repeated tries over about 10 hours.  The free option (basic) blocks frequently saying that there is not a free download slot.  I doubt that is true, but they must block off certain times in order to sell the premium version.

Anyway, for those of you who cannot download it, I attached it here.  As Uknown Soldier indicated, a .jar file cannot be attached, so you will have to rename the .txt file to .jar after dl’ing.

AAProbability.txt

@Vreely:

I was finally able to get it after repeated tries over about 10 hours.  The free option (basic) blocks frequently saying that there is not a free download slot.   I doubt that is true, but they must block off certain times in order to sell the premium version.

Anyway, for those of you who cannot download it, I attached it here.  As Uknown Soldier indicated, a .jar file cannot be attached, so you will have to rename the .txt file to .jar after dl’ing.

The file you have uploaded here is corrupt. The download for the link worked fine for me.

Firstly, great little program! I’ve been using Proton’s old AAR combat sim available over at DAAK, but his AA guns are bugged (fire every round of combat) and his obviously doesnt support AA50 features.

I have a question and a bug report.

Firstly, I am guessing your calculator is not a dice sim, but rather it uses a true probabilistic model, since the results i get never  seem to vary, even to the third decimal place.

Secondly, in the battle I am trying to simulate for my game I am “rolling”

Att: 2 inf 2 arm 2 ftr 1 bmb 1 Cru 1 BB

Def: 8 inf 1 rtl 1 ftr AA GUN

The results “feel” correct at 13.087% attacker win.

however if I change the OOL by checking the “Must Take Territory” box (which I assume modified the OOL to hold one tank back until the last casualty for the attacker), then the attackers win percentage actually skyrockets up to 65.439%.

I think it should really drop by maybe 1-2%. Obviouisly there is a problem here.

I suspected maybe it was allowing the Cru and BB to soak hits when you check the box, but removing these from the battle still leaves a 58.346% attacker win.