@Bean:
With regular dice, you MUST calculate the possible results of bad dice.
This is overexaggerated. You use actually just about the same method of estimation by counting dice punch and unit count. Doesn’t matter in LL or regular dice, you still attack 1 inf with 2 inf 1 fig, etc. If you try to “make up” for bad dice by adding more forces, you will lose in the long run because you’re on average spending more than you need to.
The huge difference is in strafing. With regular dice you have to account for both good and bad dice, because good dice mean you took the territory, and bad dice means you lost more than you strafed. The Allies might be able to push in faster since Germany might be less willing to strafe with regular dice.
So you really see no difference between regular dice and low luck with, say, a R1 invasion of Ukraine using 2 tanks?
(edit) - for those not familiar with this line, it is 3 inf 1 art 1 tank from Caucasus plus 1 tank from Russia plus the 2 Russian fighters, for total attacking force 3 inf 1 art 2 tank 2 fighter, with the remainder of available Russian forces attacking West Russia. Veteran players will probably be familiar with the fact that the Ukr-West Russia attack typically uses THREE tanks rather than TWO - but then, veteran players of that caliber should be familiar with the reasons of why that is the case. For those veteran players that are unfamiliar with the ramifications of Low Luck, as well as the uninitiated, then - (/edit)
Using Frood’s calculator for reference (note that I do my OWN calculations, but for anyone that may doubt my subjectivity) -
Regular dice:
13.69% all attackers die
6.1% 1 Russian fighter survives
11.29% 2 Russian fighters survive
68.92% 2 Russian fighters plus at least 1 Russian tank survive
Low Luck:
11.1% 2 Russian fighters survive
88.9% 2 Russian fighters plus at least 1 Russian tank survive
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Under regular luck, then, you obtain UNACCEPTABLE losses about 20% of the time (losing a Russian fighter on the attack), and another 11% of the time, you fail to take Ukraine, which allows some rather unpleasant German counterattacks.
Aggregate, about 31% of the time, the Russian attack on Ukraine will “fail” the Russian goal. About 20% of the time, the Russian attack on Ukraine will actually be QUITE bad for Russia (losing 1-2 fighters).
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Under Low Luck, you NEVER obtain UNACCEPTABLE losses (you CANNOT lose a Russian fighter under the Low Luck attack). About 11% of the time, you fail to take Ukraine, which allows some rather unpleasant German counterattacks.
Aggregate, about 11% of the time, the Russian attack on Ukraine will “fail” the Russian goal. However, the Russian attack on Ukraine can NEVER be QUITE bad for Russia, as Russia’s fighters are never at risk.
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Conclusion: Games with regular dice and games with low-luck are DRASTICALLY different. It is impossible to conclude otherwise given the evidence.