yeah i agree your plan has some built in flexibility. carrier + tran build in sz 61 is perfectly safe once you’ve taken out the UK ships.
On the other hand, the UK factory is basically gonna be in great shape given that carrier build and no IC’s. Correct response of US hitting the atlantic hard and India holding up japan for a long time should make for a pretty easy allies win. I really don’t think spending $16 on a carrier and getting only 1 transport to support additional land operations on R1 before the US has played its hand is a serious option as japan. You may not enjoy protecting an IC in kwangtung but it’s far easier than protecting that one transport you built.