No Luck Revised v. 0.1

The thing is, you almost NEVER lose to luck.

The mark of a good player is one that can deal with dice.  And blaming dice on a loss is more likely the result of bad strat than of actual bad dice.

I have won too many “bad dice” games to blame the dice for my failures.

To be honest, the worst luck I have had in Tournament play is selecting a partner that decided to not complete the Tournament.

You are FAR more likely to run into trouble with partners who do not continue a game (for whatever reason), or a time default, or other real world issue that costs you a game, than you are to losing JUST because of bad luck.

An interesting way I just played a game was you add up all your attack strength and all your defense strength then roll percentile dice.  If you happen to have 102 attack, then you get 1 hit and roll percentile to see if you get a second hit.

It sure made the game long and it completely changed everyone’s tactics!!!  You still had a chance of 1 guy fighting off 99 attacking infantry, but there was absolutely no way 100 attacking infantry could end up with less then 99 survivors! :)

I’m not advocating this, I’d probably never play it again…something about large battles taking an hour and 3 beers to complete…but it was fun!

@ShadowHAwk:

Bidding does not eliminate a game mechanic. Dice are factored into the game. Bidding and LL are not equal.

It is a strategic decision to attack with “enough” forces. In LL this is always 51%. In A&A, 60% may not be enough. Do you “risk” it??

Squirecam

Yet it changes the game somewhat just like LL.
Although with LL going in with a 51% advantage can still net you a loss on the battle. You tend to take more units to prevent a loss getting near a 70-80% winchance if you calculate it out. If you attack 3 countries with a 80% chance to win and lose all 3 it does not make your a poor strategist yet you can lose the game due to it.

Attacking 1 transport with 1 fighter will net exactly the same amount of luck in LL as with normal dice. Attacking the same transport with 2 figs with LL will net you victory guaranteed with dice it is about a 90% chance.

But it is all personal preference but to understand both principles you should have played a few rounds with them i think to see if it really makes that much a difference.

You can deal with bad luck if you are attacking but on defence having bad luck can really cost you the game pretty easy. I like to see you explain how you would beat a player that rolls the first 2 rounds all 1-2-3 where you roll the first 2 rounds only 3-4-5. IF you are russia you wont even get to see round 3 on that situation. It is those few key battles that luck can make or break the game. The big WRus stack VS the Eeurope stack if the one attacking has good luck there or really bad luck you will be hard pressed to recover from it.

Origins 2006. Game where Bid was 2 inf Ukraine. USSR attacked and Germany was wiped with no hits back. German counter into Ukraine was also a failure. I won that game, by keeping a cool head and waiting for an opportunity.

Also, my example was losing 3 50-60% battles. Russia does not have enough forces to make 3 attacks at 80-90%. But choosing to make 3 50-60 attacks rather than 2 at 80% is a risky decision and it is the decision, not the dice that was bad.

Switch is correct. You lose due to bad decisions, not dice. Dice are just the easy excuse people cry about instead of themselves.

And I have played some LL games. And IMHO, it changes too many key decisions/battles and is not true A&A.

Squirecam

It’s extremely tough to write off those “weird” results when you consistently loose battles you have close to 90% chance of winning.  Not only loose, but HORRIBLY loose.

@Jennifer:

Not only loose, but HORRIBLY loose.

i lol’d at typo.  hawt.

Yeah, it happens, mostly with AA guns.  5 of 6 fighters lost over India, yuk.  BUT, you have to be able to work with it.

That’s why I typically send 1 trns 1 fig 1 btl to Anglo-Egypt.  The destroyer mostly gets killed without inflicting any casualties if you just send 1 trns 1 btl, BUT if it kills something, you lose a loaded transport or a battleship.  SO you send a fighter too.  It’s not enough that you have a huge chance of winning, you have to figure in the COST of losing, and play accordingly.

Hey, I just lost one myself.  Yep, some bad dice at some key times.  but the only reason those battles has baecome so critical to me was previous bad decisions.

I lost by my own mistakes.

That and I was flat out out played by my opponents.

Did the dice speed things up since they were NOT my friend that game?  Yep.  But did they change the outcome?  Nope.  in fact, I would have NEEDED a dice victory to pull that game off due to my cumulative errors.

@newpaintbrush:

@Jennifer:

Not only loose, but HORRIBLY loose.

i lol’d at typo.  hawt.

Yeah, it happens, mostly with AA guns.  5 of 6 fighters lost over India, yuk.  BUT, you have to be able to work with it.

That’s why I typically send 1 trns 1 fig 1 btl to Anglo-Egypt.  The destroyer mostly gets killed without inflicting any casualties if you just send 1 trns 1 btl, BUT if it kills something, you lose a loaded transport or a battleship.  SO you send a fighter too.  It’s not enough that you have a huge chance of winning, you have to figure in the COST of losing, and play accordingly.

Nice easy example. Should the BB kill the DD w/o a loss. Yes, it should according to odds. But is it “risky”? Yes, Everone that has played this way has at some time or another lost the BB. Was it the “dice” or was it the “decision” ??

IMHO, it was the “decision”. Like you say, you bring the fighter to be “safer”.

Squirecam

Okay, but when you start deciding battles where you have less then 90% odds arn’t worth it because you’ll be wiped out start occurring in your regular strategy sessions, maybe it’s time to play LL for a while.  Eh?

I mean of all the battles I’ve had, I’d wager 60% of them were complete wipe outs for me when I had significant percentages to win AND plenty of forces.  (So no, it’s not a 2 vs 1 infantry thing.  It’s more of battles where it’s 16 Infantry, 5 Armor, 5 Fighters, 1 Bomber vs 12 Infantry, 5 Armor, 3 Fighters and an AA gun.  Which is 84% chance to win, 1% chance of mutual destruction.  But for me that’s 15% chance to win, 1% chance of mutual destruction and 84% chance of getting whipped out and maybe killing 3 or 4 bad guys!)

@Jennifer:

Okay, but when you start deciding battles where you have less then 90% odds arn’t worth it because you’ll be wiped out start occurring in your regular strategy sessions, maybe it’s time to play LL for a while.  Eh?

I think that way sometimes too, but when it comes right down to it, there are a lot of reasons to play with dice.

1.  You can sing “Luck be a ladyyy toniight!”

2.  You can always blame the dice for a loss.  ALWAYS.

3.  Quite frankly, I usually “feel lucky tonight”

4.  I like taking risks in games.  It’s fun.  Often disastrous, but fun.

5.  Chicks dig dice.

Oh believe me, I take risks in every game with ADS…I know that if I have less then 90% chance to win, I’ve got an extremely good chance to loose, so it’s always a risk for me (how often do you have 90% chance to win a major engagement?)

Though, I must admit, sometimes it’s fun when you throw a 1 or a 2 on your own ‘bones’ on every roll killing off 6 infantry, 2 armor attacking you amphibiously because he cannot retreat.  But that never happens FOR me when it’s an online dicey (it does happen AGAINST me all the time though.)

Wanna play me IRL?  I’ll kill ya, all I need is 5 minutes to play with the dice before game starts so I can work out how to throw those specific ones to get what I want. :P

sure, I’d play ya IRL.  But I’m in NYC and you’re around Chicago, I think, yes?

OH wellz, what can ya do?