Deterrent to Egypt mIC on UK1 -"Ram-rod" play

@MeinHerr:

Could you please clarify what UK1 - Buy and Moves are?

Sure! http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=38295.msg1566288#msg1566288

What I think may not be there is what happens with the sea zone 110 fleet. Depending on what happened in sea zones 111 and 106, only one of those UK ships may enter the med to sit in sea zone 96.

Also, I just realized that you are assuming that Germany loses no aircraft when clearing sea zone 93 of French ships on G1. The odds are against this. That probably means you take 12 aircraft into Egypt, not 13.

Your ideas are not bad amigo. But you keep assuming that your opponent screws up and that your opponent screwing up makes your strategy good. It doesn’t work that way. If your opponent reacts properly, your strategy still has to be able to win. That means you need more force, more maneuverability, or both.

To put this in a way you can relate to very well because I know you are USCF rated – any idiot can checkmate someone who play’s Byrd’s opening in chess. Go checkmate someone who plays the Ruy Lopez well if you want me to be impressed.

Marsh

@seancb:

Good players make very few mistakes unless they have been drinking Fireball whisky!!! That’s usually when my best friend and I really start the propaganda machine and generally when the mistake is made and more follow.

I want to play the game where everyone takes a shot at the start of the turn!

Marsh

Again you make bad assumptions. UK doesn’t defend Egypt if you blow up everything there on G2. It moves back to the next line of defense.

The UK has more than enough naval presence to destroy your Italian navy. Heck, the UK might go ahead and position the naval build in sea zone 98 knowing that you are even worse off! The Italian navy is not strong enough to take on the UK navy and win. If it is, the UK can deploy its own blockers….if you fall back to sea zone 97, you are in a kill box with aircraft from London and the UK med fleet converging on you. And remember, Sea Lion is off the table because you blew the Luftwaffe up. There’s no reason for the UK to hold any of that aircraft back.

Not sure why you are putting a definition into your message. You might deter UK from placing a factory in Egypt on UK1, at the cost of leaving the sea zone 110 fleet alive. Woopdeedoo. Now the UK holds off, doesn’t build the IC, and builds the IC in Persia UK2 after placing a strong build on South Africa on UK1. If you don’t do the strafe, you left the sea zone 110 fleet alive for no reason – remember, you are positioning your air force before the UK decides what to build.

This in no way deters the UK from doing Taranto, which as I recall was your original position.

If you sacrifice the Luftwaffe, you can absolutely take the Egypt complex on I2. It’s what happens after that is problematic. If you sacrifice the Luftwaffe and there is no factory, Italy doesn’t gain that much. To do this though, you have to let of lot of UK units go….it’s worth not building the factory just to frustrate you!

Marsh

How would you work the Italian strategy you speak of assuming Taranto and attack on 96 is successful? I’m thinking of a few counters of my own and would like your opinion. I’m not sure if I want the Luftwaffe out of position for the Barbarossa open on G3 which is when we normally do it because our group likes to get the position on USSR before we go in.

One more question and I’m done.
What does Italy do when the jolly green giant (USA) arrives at Gibraltar on round 4, at the latest with no DOW from Japan an earlier DOW would only speed the process up, with 10 fully loaded transports, 2 bombers and 4 fully loaded AC’s, 2 CR, 1 sub, 1 BB and 1DD to screen this, not counting any UK help that has come for the party?

To put it lightly, I think about now the Italian player is having some bowel control issues. Germany is probably going to turn some of its air power around and the USA has an option to attack Rome, Normandy if ready, or Norway.

If USA has to absolutely get it done (bad position mind you after this move) they go to Tobruk unload and transports start the trip home, all the while Italy is SBR’d into the stone age if they move any planes from Rome. Italy will have a hard time holding that off (Germans will pay for it), and while the TT’s go home. USA pours all the IPC’s it makes on the Pacific side until the TT’s get back. In addition the US air power can get to Moscow in time for the real party on G7. 96 to NW Persia to Moscow.

Allies simply have to not lose in the Pacific by building sub and destroyer screens and taking whatever they can when they can. USA will be around 72 IPC’s with the Brazil money and maybe they go to the old French land in North Africa for a few more cheap bucks.

Thoughts?

@seancb:

One more question and I’m done.
What does Italy do when the jolly green giant (USA) arrives at Gibraltar on round 4, at the latest with no DOW from Japan an earlier DOW would only speed the process up, with 10 fully loaded transports, 2 bombers and 4 fully loaded AC’s, 2 CR, 1 sub, 1 BB and 1DD to screen this, not counting any UK help that has come for the party?

To put it lightly, I think about now the Italian player is having some bowel control issues. Germany is probably going to turn some of its air power around and the USA has an option to attack Rome, Normandy if ready, or Norway.

If USA has to absolutely get it done (bad position mind you after this move) they go to Tobruk unload and transports start the trip home, all the while Italy is SBR’d into the stone age if they move any planes from Rome. Italy will have a hard time holding that off (Germans will pay for it), and while the TT’s go home. USA pours all the IPC’s it makes on the Pacific side until the TT’s get back. In addition the US air power can get to Moscow in time for the real party on G7. 96 to NW Persia to Moscow.

Allies simply have to not lose in the Pacific by building sub and destroyer screens and taking whatever they can when they can. USA will be around 72 IPC’s with the Brazil money and maybe they go to the old French land in North Africa for a few more cheap bucks.

Thoughts?

I think we’re on the same page Seancb.

Except that Germany blew up most of the Luftwaffe so that Italy could take Egypt, remember? And Germany can’t take Moscow til at least turn ten now…

Heck, with no Luftwaffe, the US fleet doesn’t have to be that big either. AND Moscow doesn’t really need much Allied air to help it.

Marsh

@seancb:

How would you work the Italian strategy you speak of assuming Taranto and attack on 96 is successful? I’m thinking of a few counters of my own and would like your opinion. I’m not sure if I want the Luftwaffe out of position for the Barbarossa open on G3 which is when we normally do it because our group likes to get the position on USSR before we go in.

Just to point out you really don’t need the Luftwaffe to push into Russia on G3. You will have plenty of ground units to force the Russians to back down (unless you split your Germans into multiple stacks at the front). Generally the German air is used in N Africa to protect Italian gains in the first couple turns, or to project power in the Atlantic or Med keeping the Western Allies from making early landings. At some point you will need the Luftwaffe as you get closer to Moscow (have Italy mech and bmr “can open” take land so you can move German ground/air in).

Edit: You will of course need the German air for the final assault on Moscow.

No argument – you don’t need the Luftwaffe to push in Russia G3.

You do need it to take Moscow by G7. That’s the issue where I think we all disagree with Meinherr – he is going to do Moscow plane-free!

Marsh

@Marshmallow:

No argument – you don’t need the Luftwaffe to push in Russia G3.

You do need it to take Moscow by G7. That’s the issue where I think we all disagree with Meinherr – he is going to do Moscow plane-free!

Marsh

So Moscow is a “No fly zone for the Luftwaffe”

Maybe Meinherr should re-name his strat “Crash and Burn”

Quick question Marsh, I have heard you say a couple times that if you buy an IC for the UK you can delay a turn to place it. I believe you said that Krieghund had ruled on that.

I know that if you over buy and have nowhere to place a unit due to miscalculation or maybe not buying out damage to an IC you have that option. My understanding is that if you can place it you must, even if it puts you in a bad position.

Yeah, that was wrong on my part. You can’t buy it and not place it. The only way for that to happen would be for you to lose a territory during your turn.

However, if you buy too many units and can’t place them, you don’t save them – you get your money back and the units go back into the bin.

Marsh

Ok, that’s what I thought.

Looking at this, Sea Lion should be off the table even if Meinherr doesn’t do the G2 strafe of Egypt. He left two cruisers and a battleship alive in sea zone 110, in addition to the sea zone 109 destroyer. Only two of those ships are required to block sea lion, or they could all be parked in sea zone 112. With the air force and navy available to the UK and given the lack of ground units in Meinherr’s G1 build, a UK1 invasion of West Germany might even be possible…

Am I missing anything here?

EDIT: Let’s not forget the sea zone 91 cruiser that Meinherr leaves alive as well.

EDIT: Well, it looks viable. West Germany has one fighter, 4 strat bombers. If he left the AA guns, 3 AA guns. If he moved infantry in from Germany, well, those aren’t going to make G3 Russia attack. UK can invade with two ground units, three fighters, and a strat bomber in addition to two support shots. If Germany didn’t move infantry in, is it worth sacrificing one ground unit and 3-4 UK planes to kill German strat bombers on the ground? And if you do real well, you burn the factory to an MIC as well. Looks like an almost certain thing as long as he leaves no AA guns and no ground units.

Marsh

I can’t see him not leaving the AAA guns in W Germany, they can’t really do anything else. Like you said earlier you can’t really rely on your opponent to mess up that bad lol. With that said if he leaves it weak you got to hit that s**t

IDK, I just can’t get behind a strat that involves decimating the Luftwaffe in the 2nd turn. First it was a strafe that would probably kill like 4-5 planes. Then it was an all out fight to the death which takes out like 10 planes or more. I have played Germany and gotten diced bad in the opening round against UK navy a couple times losing just 3-4 planes and it is an uphill battle.

If the Germans placed all their ftrs and tacs in Rome on G1, the UK has to see the the potential of either an attack on the UK navy, or an ill advised air strike against Cairo. The UK has some options to protect the navy and block out the Italians for a turn. They can also make it hurt if the Germans go through with the air strike on Cairo by pulling in all available units into Egypt. The UK has too many assets, and so many options in the Med, Africa, and Mid East (which would include some Indian units) that they will recover as long as the UK player isn’t asleep at the wheel. As pointed out if the Germans air sweep Egypt it will fall to the Italians. However the Italian navy will end up getting sunk when they come over, and the UK will take it back. The Italians just won’t have the income to compete once it loses the Med.

Add to that a big part of the Atlantic navy surviving, and Germany not having the air power to hold off an invasion fleet (or kill the units when they land) the Western Allies will be making landings in Europe while Italy is still in a death match fighting for Egypt.

It would be like doing Sea Lion, losing the balk of the Luftwaffe and not getting London for the payday. And just like a Sea lion attempt the Russians are breathing much better.

I can almost see a Japanese air sweep against a China stack on J2, because the Japanese have over 20 planes. I still don’t like losing planes to inf, but at least the ground battle would be pretty much over and it would save you ground units and time in the long run. The Japanese are still going to miss those air units later though IMO.

Agreed.

Also, the Egypt Luftwaffe battle goes very differently if the UK places bid units in Alexandria, Egypt, and Ethiopia. With three more units there, the Luftwaffe decimation is complete and the UK might even be able to hold off the Italian attack…

And heck, just to address the concern about not taking Sumatra with India, might as well put a bid transport there or in South Africa so that India can get Sumatra AND the UK can activate Persia. Or the transport can drop two units in Egypt to make it five more. Die Luftwaffe die!

(EDIT: With five extra units available because of the bid, the Luftwaffe now has a 10% chance to clear Egypt. Only three extra units would make it 25%.)

And of course because Sea Lion is off the table, no units are required in London on UK1.

Marsh