Hey Tolstoj
Again, with all due respect, this is another example of how it feels like every Axis counter point you present is “Well I’d just have every unit everywhere at the same time.”
In our private messages back and forth I mention how, as the US, I can have 7 or 8 (let’s call it 7 for this example) loaded transports in SZ91 by turn 3. So let’s say G4 they buy that DD in SZ110 to block: depending how the board looks the US can either take that guy out and hang in the Channel (they should have a loaded CV, a DD and a C) and rely on extra defense from UK, or kill him anyway and go to 109 and group with the UK fleet and planes, which can scramble from two bases in 109.
That same US4, any loaded transports (let’s even say they have 1) that may be ready to go from EUS can make their way up to Iceland* to join in the attack on Norway next round (obviously we’d have to see the board, but I’m assuming your subs are gone. If Germany bombers can reach Iceland, and UK can spare the units, you send a couple up there to defend). Based on what you’ve said, I don’t believe Germany’s planes will be a threat to either fleet.
*(As an aside: this is something the US can do on turn three to prevent a DD block to begin with. If Germany doesn’t have any real naval presence to speak of, head to Iceland instead of Gibraltar. The bulk of Germany’s air force cannot make it up there and they cannot simply buy a DD on G4 to block).
Next turn you can’t block Norway. So US lands 16 units in there, something like 13 inf/mech, 1 tank, 2 AA. On UK’s turn they can put a few planes in, plus land ground troops as well (I’m guessing they’d have at least 3 transports). So let’s say UK helps to the tune of 3 fighters, 6 ground units (5 inf and another AA): we’re talking 18 inf, a tank, 3 AA and 3 fighters. You said you’d have 13 ground units and 11 planes. Based on what you’ve said, I’m assuming most of the 13 are inf, but I’ll even give you 9 inf 4 art:
Using David Skelly’s battle calc, with low luck, I have the Allies winning 61.6% percent of the time. If I change that 9 inf & 4 art to 11 inf & 2 art the Allied odds go up to 76.5%. Germany cannot commit to that battle.
There are certainly variables here and, as with all arguments, unless we’re looking at the board on that specific turn, this is just theory. But the Allies can absolutely land in Norway and Europe in general. Is it always quick enough? Strong enough? No. But they can absolutely make it there.