@madscientist:
@innocentbystander:
@dondoolee:
Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).
12 transports on G3. All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion. And it almost guarantees you will lose the war. Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.
I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question. The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3? That is the question. I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.
According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.
Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.
G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).
When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!
Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.
Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.
UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.
If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.
Thus, on G2, attack!
UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53
Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.
Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.
you should really use a battlesim. You are forgetting the value of hitpoints.
If we forget about the AAs then the germans have a total of 19 units, while the british have 22 units.
The number of units you have is much more important than the number of battledice you have.
Running the battle on a battle sim gives germnay about 2% (1-3%) chance of winning.
adding the AAs as well, and the picture is even grimmer. between 0.2 and 1.6 % of winning.
One thing that might suprise you is the value of volume. If you have 12 ftrs defending a terr and I attack with only infs. I only need about 24 infs to have a 50% odds of killing all of the fighters. To see why the 2-1 ratio is correct, we can do an easy calculation.
round 1.
the fighters have 124/6 hits = 8 hits on the infs.
The infs have 241/6 hits = 4 hits on the fighters.
that means that the fighters lost 4/12 = 1/3 figters.
the infs lost 8/28 = 1/3 infs.
Which means that both sides lost and equal percentage of their fightingpower.
The actual formula for thse kinds of battles where pure infs attacks a pure force is:
inf vs inf sqrt(1) to Sqrt(2) -> 1,41 infs attacking per inf defending
Inf v tanks : Sqrt(1) to sqrt(3) –> 1.7 infs attacking per tank defending.
In axis volume is king.
