My current state of mind with Japan,
is that this Major Power can win the game for the axis if attacking early (J2), but this often guarantees the Germans cannot!
If attacking late (J3 or J4), I find that Japan’s chances to win the game are gone, but Germany on the other hand can win the game.
When playing Japan I always review ONE thing first before deciding when to attack (and my axis friends are aware of that): what is the USA going to do?
This automatically means no J1 attack, unless Germany and I together agreed on both chasing Russia in which case I will start hunting Russians J1 and will not attack ANZACUSUKI till J4 and let them come.
If I see (as an extreme example which happens to be not so extreme for some of my friends) the USA putting every ship it has in Panama, build a Harbor there and placing new builds in Europe (1 of my friends LOVES to crush Germany/Italy like this) I usually decide 1 of 2 things:
� 1). I ATTACK (Philipines + Java + the obvious targets on SE Asia) because I want the US to commit to 1 theatre or the other. If the US goes to Europe (which he most certainly will given the preparations) I sortie to take Sydney J5 and Honolulu J6 or J7. Combined with Philipines and Hong Kong = Sudden death for the allies. The USA can stop this but it will be very hard and means major commitment from US3 and on, leaving the Germans alone for the next 3 turns.
� 2). I decide to WAIT and not attack until even J4 sometimes because I want to give Germany and Italy a chance to win.
I tend to favor attacking and threatening to win J6 or J7 because if the USA can get their focus on GermItaly going, it usually doesnt matter anymore what Japan does or does not, save forcing the USA to pay attention to the Pacific again.
If I see the USA keeping a strong enough presence on the Pacific map (meaning Germany is safe until turn 4 anyway no matter what I do, I will ATTACK J2, possibly going for the India crush or the slower approach through China (and Russia) whilst isolating Calcutta anyway.
In any case I think you should never try to take 3 islands in the same turn AND try to protect all the transports.
That means spreading too thinly indeed.
Sacrifice 1 or 2 TRS seems ok (if you have like 7 or more), but I always keep a minimum of 5 TRS protected. Which usually means a slower approach because splitting your fleet in two � is about as stretched as you can get(so not taking more than 2 islands a turn), unless you are also protected by scramblers, kamikazes or an outer defense perimeter.
So, I think what is best for Japan and the Axis cause in particular, really depends on the situation.