In that game I got some bad dice on G1. Come on.
Outlier results are outlier results, they happen, but it is not the norm.
In a low luck game where everything goes smooth, I would do sea lion if you did that buy. In a dice game in which maybe I lost southern france, but not 3 air units in sz 111… I would do sea lion against that buy.
Lost too much stuff G1. Plus I did not send 2 subs to 106. It was intended to go barb after and strafed yugoslavia instead of taking it. I recommend skipping Southern France if you plan on doing barb, it makes france a bit dicier and you will want your mech in tact.
Normally against that buy Rommel I would do sea lion, all day, everyday. Lost 4 air units which made the battle a coin toss if I opted to go for it. I do not see the relevance of bringing that up.
Do we need to bring up all of soulfein’s games? He does exact openers by the book. I think RPG44 does the optimal sea lion thing, which has worked out great for him in the last 5 games (his current one he got diced on France, France was 98% battle and he lost).
I mean crazy stuff happens sometimes, but it is not the majority of games. Maybe 1/10 if you count both Germany and Japan round 1 attacks and where they can go wrong.
I lost the attack on philipines in a couple games and that is a 99% battle… all of a sudden J1 should never be done?
~
It is a dice game. The confidence interval depends on scrambling, but assuming no scramble one can be 95% confident if you calculate the odds of these battles. Just add the % odds of losing each battle up. It is pretty darn close to 95% confidence.
I usually send 2 subs to 106, losing that battle sucks, but that is the part of the turn I am generally least confident in. If it works out I am happy, if not oh well what else were the subs going to do.
