Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll


  • @corriganbp:

    Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

    and you where lucky, hitted more than average, and still typed that the fight was on my side.


  • you have to consider the law of large numbers, 45% hits with 2 is exceptionally strange when you are rolling that number of dice.


  • It can still happen, and it can happen on either side. Actually on a large battle like that a +7% is not that crazy.

    Anyway, did you like this module?


  • of course it can happen, but it’s not likely, and there is absolutely no comparison between the outcome of the first vs. the second battle in terms of luck.

    The first battle was absolutely flukey.


  • In battles like that everything is decided round#1, and I’m sure you know it.


  • Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.

    Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.

    St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.

    You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.


  • 109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
    2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

    AttackDiceRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4680@1: (1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5)62@2: (4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)10@3: (3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 6, 1, 2)
    DefendDiceRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 49121@2: (5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (6, 4)


  • 60 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
    30 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

    AttackDiceRolls: 31@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2531@1: (1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1)62@2: (4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)10@3: (4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 5, 3, 3, 2)
    DefendDiceRolls: 77@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3777@2: (1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4)12@3: (4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6)2@4: (5, 4)


  • Please, stop this, you were unlucky, you can’t possibly lose any game if not by bad luck, that’s the point?


  • 23 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
    5 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

    AttackDiceRolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3156@2: (1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2)10@3: (5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3)5@4: (1, 1, 1, 1, 3)
    DefendDiceRolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1952@2: (2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5)12@3: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4)2@4: (4, 3)


  • 4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
    21 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

    AttackDiceRolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2637@2: (2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1)10@3: (1, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5)5@4: (3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
    DefendDiceRolls: 21@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1821@2: (5, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3)12@3: (3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1)2@4: (6, 2)


  • 19 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
    6 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

    AttackDiceRolls: 19@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1319@2: (5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2)10@3: (2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5)5@4: (2, 5, 3, 5, 4)
    DefendDiceRolls: 7@3 2@4; Total Hits: 57@3: (2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5)2@4: (1, 2)


  • 56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
    52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits

    how’s the luck in this battle? Favor anyone?


  • taken with 14 arts and 9 tanks, again a reasonable outcome


  • reasonable outcome

    56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
    52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits

    DiceRolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1)10@3: (2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3)5@4: (2, 3, 2, 6, 2)
    DiceRolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2552@2: (6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4)12@3: (3, 5, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (6, 1)


  • you hit with 9 out of 12 of your shots at 3 in the first round though, and the overall outcome is pretty close to what was predicted.


  • DiceRolls: 31@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1831@2: (4, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 2, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 5)
    DiceRolls: 26@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1726@2: (2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 6)12@3: (1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3)2@4: (6, 4)


  • DiceRolls: 14@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1414@2: (1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 6, 2, 3, 6)10@3: (5, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 2)5@4: (1, 3, 2, 5, 3)
    DiceRolls: 8@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 148@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 6, 2)2@4: (2, 5)


  • DiceRolls: 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 610@3: (1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6)5@4: (6, 3, 3, 5, 2)
    DiceRolls: 8@3 2@4; Total Hits: 48@3: (4, 2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 4, 5)2@4: (4, 5)


  • I’ll wait until your done and then roll this a 4th time.

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