A few recent threads have touched on China versus US for world influence and position. I think it is obvious to everyone these two world powers will be jockeying for position with India coming up the rear (good thing we are not talking about the Greek crisis….). It’s a natural competition between the current #1 and an ancient world power that has had a temporary disadvantage. China used to have the #1 world GDP and has always been the #1 population leader.
I don’t think it wise for the US to actively sabotage China from its natural rising status nor do I think the US is doing that. On the other hand, it seems the US is almost actively driving China to it’s eventual #1 status. It’s natural in a trading world for nations to have strong-points. China’s was initially low wages as any developing nation had this advantage. But the way China is going about it is single-minded and very damaging to the US in particular.
Is the US ‘hooking’ China on a modern way of life so they can influence China in a Machiavellian way or is it just big business taking advantage of shifting dunes no caring what happens to the ‘host’ as the money can move on to a new host and thrive?
47 years ago when China tested its first nuke (Herman Cain should read this) the US really could not influence China. The US could blockade China until the cows came home and it would not really change most lives in China. The US dropped more explosives on Vietnam than was used in all of WWII and still lost, so really, no military solutions to China. Once China had the ability to lob a few dozens of nukes at the US they were untouchable. So, fast forward to now. China requires huge amounts of imports of energy and other resources. A quick blockade of China now effects a huge % of the population who now like their bling. Is owing China trillions of dollars really that bad. Is this also a Machiavellian plan by the US to gain influence with China?
I think I would prefer a Machiavellian scenario to that of one where its just big business acting like a parasite on the host ready to move on and leave the used up husk of it’s host. It’s kinda sad that environmental and labour laws in the US are being gutted when they be used to even the playing field between China and the US. A few ‘consumer protection’ ads by the ‘US safety council’ could point out the dangers of buying China and the benefits of buying domestic.
The only time recently I saw the US environment laws being used is to block the XL keystone pipeline from Canada to the US. What the f___? So, better to buy oil from the Saudi’s and have Canada ship it’s oil to China? Two articles my American friends in particular might want to have a peek at if energy supplies are of interest.
Nov 7
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2011/11/07/18935036.html?&pic=0
Nov 14
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2011/11/14/18967561.html
So is it best summed up as a Machiavellian plot by the US or…
Summed up with ironically enough, a native american proverb…
“The shaft of the arrow had been feathered with one of the eagle’s own plumes. We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction.”
-Aesop
Very intresting and quite enjoyable to read. :mrgreen:
I think that many people in the US still have the “cold war” mind-set and feel that any nation that rises will be a threat and must be met with mis-trust and confrontation. I would hope we could move past this and embrace the much smaller global community we live in now.
On the debt issue, China’s is the only real concern, the rest are either allies of the US, little countries that can’t do anything, or they owe to little to make a difference. So what the US should do is find a new place that will import them things. The only reason China is successful is because the west doesn’t want to make stuff themselves so they find countries who will work for cheap.
On the oil issue it it pretty stupid that the US is trying to get oil from an unstable country on the other side of the world. Yet Canada is up there sitting pretty with it’s oil. That’s why environmental issues piss me off, because they prevent from making a country successful. So you makes a good point there.
On the idea of blockading China, that’s a bit uncivilized and a waste of time, and it’s not like there a privateers today so it would defiantly be a war with China, who’s navy or air-force can’t kick the US out so they would be sitting there, but the point is what’s the point of doing that, raising the bar of anti-Americanism, other countries wouldn’t be thrilled with the US going to ruin China.
Mexico is a friend of the US, and they will work cheap and they have factories so the US could start making things saying.
“Made in Mexico”
If the US did this, China might begin realizing they aren’t advanced enough to live without making American products. Its not like you have a big toylines about monks. I’ve notice a lot of people still don’t understand why BRIC is rising. Because the west buys their stuff.
On a side note if oil gets replaced Russia’s main exports will be useless. That would also hurt Brazil who is beginning to start using their oil more that was found.
@Dylan:
Mexico is a friend of the US, and they will work cheap and they have factories so the US could start making things saying “Made in Mexico”. If the US did this, China might begin realizing they aren’t advanced enough to live without making American products. Its not like you have a big toylines about monks.
Mexico? What is happening in Mexico right now is a tragedy. Its a nation locked in a war that is rarely talked about north of he border. A war that is often dismissed as criminal because of the nautre of its participants and thus not afforded the attention it deserves, but make no mistake, the drug war, is a very real war. Forty thousand people have died in the last five years in this war, thats ten times the number of U.S. soliders who’ve died in Iraq or 1/3 as many Iraqi civilians. This is a war being fought not solely by the Mexican police but by every branch of its armed services and even though the use of the army and marines in the last few years have done major damage to the drug cartel’s, the level of violence has only grown with each passing month. Today, most major security assessments see the destabilization caused by the drug war as a major threat to the Mexican goverment. This dosnt even begin to capture the horror of this war where rape, torture, and kidnapping are all regular tools used. The battle grounds are apartment blocks and neighborhoods, children and families are both its victims and its weapons. The worse part is its a war without end because neither side has a clear end goal. Its not like a war between two nations where one side can surrender and the other take over. The drug lords have no intrest in contolling and the country and the Mexican goverment has no system in place for them to surrender. After drug tarfficking the second higest export from Mexico is human trafficking and Mexico has the higest number of female homicides, per-capitia, in the world. It is a complete mess down there and they have neither the organization, the resources, or the stability to do even a fraction of the work that would be necessary to atempt what your suggesting.
Very good points about Mexico Clyde. People in Canada know Mexico only as a warm place to visit for a few days or a week when it’s snowing up here. I mention to people about the 40/day death toll vis-a-vis the drug war and the odd time hotels are lit on fire and innocent people killed in crossfires. People really don’t seem to grasp the situation. I think drug addiction is a horrible thing, but the appetite for drugs north of Mexico is distorting the world south of the US. Is it time to legalize drugs? I don’t know how well that would work in the US and Canada, but it would work great for everyone south of those two countries. Mind you, it would be interesting to see what % of GDP the drug trade represents.
Maybe not Mexico then, but I’m sure the US can easily find a new place to make their things for them.
@Dylan:
Maybe not Mexico then, but I’m sure the US can easily find a new place to make their things for them.
Where? China not only has the labor force but the second most important thing you need, organization. Say what you will, but the govermental system China has allows for a greater level in organization then places with freeer systems like India and Brazil. This is not inherintly a good thing, but a callaus attitude towards a few people swell being in the face of greater achievement does give the Chinese a leg up over its competitors.
My 2 cents: China’s government and society cannot endure an economic depression. As soon as consumers in the West can’t afford to buy so much stuff, and the oil shortage makes shipping that across the Pacific too expensive, China collapses in a very ugly way. They have no more than 10 years in them. Maybe we don’t either.
No thanks.
Good point. Also for the new place to buy stuff Ethiopia.
Too far to catch up any time soon.
Has factories.
Has a pretty good labor force, see.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/labor-force-by-country.asp
and even though this is for war, it could make other things look after world war i the US started producing cars and things.
Dylan, You need to stop picking places in the world where terrible things are happening. Ethopia is current facing a severe drought which is creating food shortages and could develop into a famine. Thousands have died from starvation and the capitol is under threat from the same conditions. Just because a country has some factories dosnt mean that they have the infrastructure or the ability to make up the slack that would be created by stoping bussiness with China.
Wow there seems to be problems everywhere in the world. :|
If I understand you correctly Mr. Malachi, you are a Canadian wondering what the hell kind of political and economic games the US is playing with China.
This is the first that I have heard of Canada submitting alternate proposals to China if the Keystone deal doesn’t pan out with the US. … well, I can’t say as I can blame Canada for that. You have to sell your product to someone. And if nobody else will buy it but the communists, well so be it.
I really have a hard time believing that this whole ordeal is part of a machiavellian power gambit staged by the US. First of all, the current state of US foreign affairs supports the opposite. The President and Secretary Clinton have managed to diminish US prestige in the world, not enhance it. While they have undertaken limited measures to sanction unstable or hostile governments, they have in greater measure surrendered elements of US sovereignty, alienated close allies and made decisions based on identification with a growing global community rather than in support of US security.
Second reason that I don’t think it is machiavellian is that the Chinese cannot be that naive. If anything I believe the trend of surrendering US global influence points to the Chinese (or others) using machiavellian tactics on us
A rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline deal by the US would be completely idiotic. This is another example of US surrendering security and proven solutions for environmental green trends. For years arguments have been made for Alaskan drilling and increased oil trade with Canada over buying from foreign nations across the world who are not friendly to the US. Continued rejection of home-based energy production makes no sense whatsoever. The United States and Canada share an extremely close relationship already, but together we could be completely self-sufficient, if politicians had both country’s best interests at heart instead of global agendas.
Personally, I love Canada. I love hockey. I love to vacation there. I don’t agree with some of Canadian government, but they are still a freedom and liberty endorsing nation, in a world that is growing increasingly less free. Canada has a wealth of resources which they trade mostly with the US. I hope it remains that way and that economically our countries grow even closer, because such an alliance is a tremendously powerful force in the world and can only benefit us both.
We must be careful not to cross the line about talking about politics. A few observations, we shall have to agree to disagree to avoid a debate about politics. I disagree that your president and secretary of state have diminished US prestige. As for surrendering elements of US sovereignty……some examples would be appreciated. It could be argued that US sovereignty has been over represented throughout the last century and is returning to a more normal state of affairs.
Canada and the US do share many values and are and will be strong trading partners. However, economically our countries are diverging and will continue to do so, and its healthy for us and provides us with safety. At one point 90% of our exports went to the US, this gave the US too much power over our economic interests. Canadian whines don’t often make the US news, but it gets played here quite a bit, such as the Keystone deal. The US is holding our interests hostage for political reasons.
The softwood lumber dispute is another sore spot. NAFTA was to see free trade yet protectionist state interests ‘prick-shot’ Canada and there isn’t much…or wasn’t much we could do in the face of this perceived ‘bullying’. Rightly or wrongly, a few things Canadian kids get taught in public school is:
The War of 1812. Big bad USA and its belief in ‘Manifest Destiny’ tried to conquer peace loving Canada. Obviously more complicated than that unfair portrayal. Yet the resistance of US assimilation seems to in part define the Canadian psyche.
In recent history I cite our Avro Arrow. It’s a common belief (mostly myth) that the plane was too good and bad ole US of A told us to cancel it. As a result lots of our brightest aero-space engineers went to the US to help with the moonshot which was true. The reason for the cancellation was complex but had little to do with US arm-twisting. That being said, most Canadians rightly or wrongly feel the USA is a bully.
I said it before and will say it again, instead of gutting US environmental laws (and labour laws), enforce them on Chinese companies and products. If Canada and the US started making what we buy in Walmart then I think we can grow the pie and we can afford to be a bit more socialist.
The War of 1812. Big bad USA and its belief in ‘Manifest Destiny’ tried to conquer peace loving Canada. Obviously more complicated than that unfair portrayal. Yet the resistance of US assimilation seems to in part define the Canadian psyche.
In recent history I cite our Avro Arrow. It’s a common belief (mostly myth) that the plane was too good and bad ole US of A told us to cancel it. As a result lots of our brightest aero-space engineers went to the US to help with the moonshot which was true. The reason for the cancellation was complex but had little to do with US arm-twisting. That being said, most Canadians rightly or wrongly feel the USA is a bully.
The War of 1812? That was against the British Empire! Canada wasn’t even a country then!
Also about the US being a bully, people just feel the need to hate the person on top.
I’m sure people were very anti British in the 1800’s.
I’m sure people were very anti Roman in the 400’s.
So if the US makes one demand it’s a bully. I’m sure China will start bossing countries around too.
I think China’s wealth has been stolen by Wall Street, in fact, the world are being controlled by the wall street. China is using the labor and the resources for a industry that is fully controlled by the virtual industry. And copy industry like this replica handbags, replica iPhone, replica Dresses is used by many developing country too for reversing this gap.
Dylan, I didn’t think I needed to use the HTML tags for sarcasm. I had thought my use of “more complicated than that unfair portrayal” and “(mostly myth)” would edify my thinking but……
I don’t think there are many Canadians who hate the US. I also think there were more valid reasons for hating the Romans circa…(eastern or western Roman empire?) 400ish AD and Britain of the 1800s wasn’t too kind to non-subjects. The only dude I knew who really was anti-American was a bit of an idiot, but his sister was super hot so… He would in one sentence rail about the US (and show is utter lack of knowledge on the subject) then go on about his Budweiser tattoos. I kid you not… How somebody could miss the irony in that juxtaposition of thought is beyond me.
I look at the US somewhat like a big brother. You know you are a bit smarter (or thinks so) and you compete like crazy. Sometimes big bro is a bit of a bully but you know you have each others back. You also know one day you will be able to smugly say “I told you so” then help them pick up the pieces of their damaged life.
It is natural for the stronger of two parties to use their strength to get the best possible deal. Back in the day the US was the only game in town hence in Canada’s case, 90% of our exports went to the US. US states could be a bit dickish and affect US federal policy as in the softwood dispute and now the Keystone oil pipeline project. The difference is now Canada can sell to China if the US thinks they have too much control over the situation.
I for one welcome the rise of peaceful law abiding giants to stand next to Canada as consumers of our products and resources. I wonder who will be the first in that category? wry grin
We must be careful not to cross the line about talking about politics.
Agreed.
I disagree that your president and secretary of state have diminished US prestige. As for surrendering elements of US sovereignty……some examples would be appreciated. It could be argued that US sovereignty has been over represented throughout the last century and is returning to a more normal state of affairs.
In the interests of not being too political, or starting a debate, I have to be careful here. To clarify, when I said “sovereignty” I meant that mostly in terms of domestic interests rather than foreign ones. Meaning the United States in recent times, not just under President Obama, has allowed global or foreign bodies to influence US legislation and Constituitonal law. This encompasses executive leadership, but also Supreme Court apointees and members of Congress. The following two articles are simply an overview. Unfortunately, I am afraid it would be far too political for me to argue a point with a number of specific examples.
Ex. 1: http://stanfordreview.org/article/former-un-ambassador-john-bolton-talks-us-sovereig/
Ex. 2: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/879/assessing-globalization-benefits-and-drawbacks-of-trade-and-integration (more of an assessment)
And as for “diminished prestige”… well, I guess this is a foreign policy discussion. You just have to ask yourself if you feel that the US is more respected in the world since President Obama took office, or less. You could argue for both, but more countries liking us or our political direction is not the same as them respecting us. That respect is accross the board: economic policy, military policy, social policy, keeping our word. If we say what we mean and do what we say, the US will be respected. If we do not honor our commitments and refuse to defend our sovereign decisions… well that equals loss of prestige and respect.
“US Over-representation” … Well that is an interesting thought, and I would have to mull it over some more, but since World War I this "over-representation has been pretty normal for the US. Pre-WWI the United States was still a “growing” nation; in territory and national identity. That identity and true international power was discovered immediately after WWI, built on in the 1920s and solidified during the Second World War. Certain countries like the US, Russia and China have been contenders for top-dog for nearly as long as the US, and there will always be a top tier like that. If not the US, then it will be someone else or some other group. At least the US is benevolent about their role and responsibilities. The same probably could not be said of Russia or China.
The US is holding our interests hostage for political reasons.
Okay… most likely true. I think it is damn stupid too.
Although I am considered a Conservative in Canada, I seem to favour Obama right now over any Republican offerings.
If you think this way as Canadian conservative, then you would be a liberal in the United States, or at the very most a left leaning “moderate”. But (this is not meant to be political but logical), do you believe that American liberals are more likely to endorse Keystone than American conservatives? If Keystone and other environmental issues are some of your primary concerns, our current President certainly does not have the track record or intent to loosen regulation on energy business or expand anything but the renweable industry. Just an observation, though perhaps I have misinterpreted your concerns.
Instead of gutting US environmental laws (and labour laws), enforce them on Chinese companies and products.
That sounds like a nearly impossible task. Not sure how one or two countries (even the US) could hope to enforce such requirements, or even assure that that are met, with the world’s largest country. Additionally, this train of thought would call for the US (and Canada) to further “bully” outside countries like China and maybe other smaller nations and get them to adhere to some sort of international trade-energy law. I would hope that most people see such an action as antithetical to what the US believes. I realize that the US has used such “bullying” power in the past, and I personally do not agree with it, but is it permissible here because it would help Canada or because it is in-step with what Europe (and hence the UN) pushes for? Just playing devil’s advocate here
If Canada and the US started making what we buy in Walmart then I think we can grow the pie and we can afford to be a bit more socialist.
It is obvious that Europe cannot afford to be more socialist and the US was never designed for it. I don’t know about Canada though… maybe they can afford it.
PS - I sincerely apologize if this post causes IL to shut us down. I tried to be a non-political as possible, but it is very, very difficult to do that with the way this topic is going.
Too many people getting older and older and no young ones to support them or their soc. sec. systems I think it will overburden their resources
LHoffman, well written and excellent points.
I read the article about John Bolton. I get that the US constitution is primary over foreign policy choices, but that has been flexible in the past. The jest of the article to me suggested sometimes the US has to just act in the fact of European inertia on important issues. If I have that wrong, well…. I think often the US does have to take the lead and should ‘bend the rules’. But it does come at some cost. But pragmatic countries will not squawk about good choices. However, good choices require constructive criticism to hone them.
The other article “Assessing Globalization: Benefits and Drawbacks of Trade and Integration”. I’m not sure how that relates, but a good read. The US economic system has generated a great deal of wealth and has inspired people world wide to come and join that system. Now many people can enjoy the system while staying home. More people have been lifted from poverty in India and China via economic growth than from the 'West’s efforts for a century.
Sovereignty. Yes, any country should never influence the choice of executive leadership, Supreme Court apointees and members of Congress, and the corresponding versions in respective countries. It’s a pity we all so easily hand this over to business but not foreign countries.
Canadian conservatives would be middle of the road I think for US politics. Everything for the most part is slanted to the left here. Our country has some great advantages. Some disadvantages are our small size and fractured economic structure. We have more free trade Province to USA compared to Province to Province. Our companies need to amalgamate to get economies of scale, all sectors except for our 5 official full service BANKS. Our lefty socials rules about financial control seem to have made us the envy of the world in that sector anyways.
I have always said the US has been by far and wide the best example of a country in the #1 world position. But there are always areas to improve and without feedback and metrics, this is pret near impossible for any entity.
On environmental and labour laws. It would be that tough at all. It is easy to ban products manufactured by slave or child labour. I do believe existing laws could be enforced. I think new laws could be drafted to prevent unsafe or unfairly (read dumping laws) manufactured goods. OK, legal issues aside. Why on earth doesn’t any organisation run commercials showing the worst of what the Chinese do in order to undercut our values so as to beat us in world trade? To an extent, natural economic forces are forcing up the labour costs in China. If they had to manufacture according to our environmental/labour laws or not sell those products here period…would create a level playing field. I don’t think it bullying to say, “Here are the rules, let the best company win but let the cheaters be punished”.
Some countries and areas have a natural advantage. Locally, they make ice wine. I’d like to see California do that. We on the other hand can only grow oranges inside a greenhouse and they would cost about 20 bucks each. Our local wine industry is a good example of proper economic strategy. Initially, it was a closed market so we could compete with California for cheap wine. Local grape growers were not exposed to the market, but a good old socialist state system protected them. So, don’t compete with California for industrial scale wine production. Use local and imported skills, move up the food chain in products and sell higher quality products. 20 years later, the Niagara wine industry and their ice wines are world famous.
OK, you and I don’t agree on environmental laws. I have seen some first hand evidence of the results. I live and grew up along the great lakes. As a kid I never caught gobies or heard of zebra mussels. I would have love a law that FORCED ships that were in fresh water in europe to flush their ballast tanks in the ocean with salt water before coming into my fresh water lake and dumping species from Europe or other freshwater bodies into my lake.
Gobies
http://www.invadingspecies.com/Invaders.cfm?A=Page&PID=8
Zebra mussles
http://www.invadingspecies.com/Invaders.cfm?A=page&PID=1
Currently some southern US states are fighting northern US states and Canada against some environmental laws to fight this sort of thing, such as the asian carp coming into the great lake system from US waterways. So, this is now an example of a foreign country trying to interfere with US sovereignty to do as they please inside their own country. This is the kind of example where yeah, we in Canada know the argument, nobody can tell you what to do. Well, technically true, yet, when these asian carp enter the great lakes and the US could have help stop it but…didn’t…
An example of success was the US-Canada efforts to curb acid rain. Most of the effects of US sulfur emissions from coal plants without proper scrubbers were inside Canada.
Obama et al. on the XL pipeline…yeah not too happy about that one. I am an ‘environmentalist’, but am no tree huger. But I do say if you cut them, you replant them, in fact you have a long term harvest plan. The oil sands product is not the cleanest oil due to extraction/refining issues, but it is better than coal.
Newt Gingrich would probably be best for Canada’s interests of the current crop, he is an intelligent yet a very flawed man.
Views on public health care are interesting. The Canada and US system are so different, and yet both groups tend to like their system intensely. It’s a pity some grown up couldn’t take the best of both systems and make it work.
On the trade thing, any time one country is selling far far more of its stuff compared to buying has got to be bad. It should be a self correcting system however. China sells stuff to the US, gets US bills. Can’t use US bills internally so must sell them for Chinese currency held by other countries. Eventually lots of US dollars chasing few Chinese notes causes US currency to fall, China’s to raise thus causing US goods to be more attractive and Chinese goods less thus bringing the system back into balance. But the Chinese abuse this and we let them get away with it. I am all for fair trade and a rising boat for all folks.
