Axisplaya (Axis) vs Wheatbear(Allies) G40-A3

@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:

UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4

So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%

@DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 4 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 7 armour and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R. Germans take Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians 1 armour moved from Palestine to Iraq Germans take Trans-Jordan from Middle_East Germans take Iraq from Middle_East 1 infantry moved from Libya to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Syria Germans take Syria from Middle_East 1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 1 Sea Zone Germans take British Convoy 1 Sea Zone from British 1 submarine moved from British Convoy 1 Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans 1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia Germans take Karelia from Russians 2 artilleries and 28 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States Combat - Germans Battle in Baltic States Germans attack with 2 artilleries and 28 infantry Russians defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 28 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/30 hits, 5.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 2 artilleries and 28 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry Battle in South Atlantic Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 submarine Americans defend with 1 transport Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 8 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 8 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 9 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Americans: 1 transport Battle in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone Germans attack with 2 submarines Russians defend with 1 submarine Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Russians lost in British Convoy 4 Sea Zone Germans win, taking British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British with 2 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Russians: 1 submarine Non Combat Move - Germans 1 battleship moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to East Poland 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Poland 2 infantry moved from Germany to Eastern France 2 fighters moved from Poland to Germany 2 fighters moved from East Poland to Germany 8 armour moved from Germany to Poland 1 armour moved from Germany to Poland 1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to Germany 1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany 1 aaGun moved from East Poland to Baltic States 12 armour, 8 artilleries and 24 infantry moved from East Poland to Baltic States 2 fighters moved from Germany to Poland 5 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia Place Units - Germans 7 armour and 3 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 50 PUs; end with 50 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -1.17 Russians regular : -0.33 Germans regular : -4.00

G4.tsvg

Game History

Round: 1 Purchase Units - British British buy 3 transports; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 transport moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya British take Libya from Germans 1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from English Channel Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans 1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone Combat - British Battle in North Sea Sea Zone British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters Germans defend with 2 submarines and 1 transport British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 2.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone 1 bomber owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British retreated Germans win with 2 submarines and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -24 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 fighter Non Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by British to United Kingdom: 1 fighter EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by British to North Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from United Kingdom: 1 fighter EDIT: Removing units owned by British from North Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from North Sea Sea Zone: 1 transport EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from North Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 infantry moved from Iraq to Iran 1 infantry moved from Syria to Iran 1 infantry moved from Palestine to Syria 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Egypt to Libya 1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Malta to Egypt 1 armour moved from Canada to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 armour and 1 transport moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone Place Units - British 3 transports placed in Davis Strait Sea Zone Turn Complete - British British collect 21 PUs; end with 22 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 1.17 British regular : -2.17

UK1.tsvg i concede

Actually, I’ll just concede it here. There is no way I can put sufficient pressure on Germany at this point. Let’s go again.

Posted this to the wrong thread lol.

@Ragnell804

Game History

Round: 11 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 6 units repaired. 2 infantry moved from Poland to Livonia 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Silesia to Poland 2 infantry moved from Berlin to Silesia 1 infantry moved from Berlin to Kiel 2 infantry moved from Kiel to Ruhr 1 infantry moved from Berlin to Kiel 10 infantry moved from Berlin to Hanover 10 infantry moved from Hanover to Ruhr 1 artillery, 8 infantry and 2 tanks moved from Ruhr to Belgium Combat - Germans Battle in Belgium Germans attack with 19 artilleries, 6 fighters, 56 infantry and 8 tanks French defend with 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 19 artilleries, 6 fighters, 56 infantry and 8 tanks in Belgium, round 2 : 43/89 hits, 39.17 expected hits French roll dice for 1 infantry in Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the French lost in Belgium Germans win, taking Belgium from French with 19 artilleries, 6 fighters, 56 infantry and 8 tanks remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for French: 1 infantry Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 14 infantry placed in Berlin Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 46 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

French regular : -0.50 Germans regular : 3.83

G11.tsvg

@Ragnell804

Game History

Round: 11 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Russia: 8 infantry EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Kazakh S.S.R.: 8 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Kazakh S.S.R.: 8 infantry EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Kazakh S.S.R.: 8 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 2 armour moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Kazakh S.S.R. Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun moved from Russia to Kazakh S.S.R. 8 infantry moved from Russia to Karelia S.S.R. Place Units - Russians 8 infantry placed in Russia Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 22 PUs

R11.tsvg

@Daaras Assumed no scramble to 94