Axisplaya (Axis) vs Wheatbear(Allies) G40-A3

@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:

UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4

So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%

@Ragnell804

Game History

Round: 1 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 artillery and 12 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 armour moved from Hungary to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 submarine moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone Germans take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from British 1 submarine moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone Germans take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British 1 submarine moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone 1 submarine and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Norway to North Sea Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Germany to North Sea Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from France to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Northern Italy to English Channel Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Poland to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 bomber moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia 3 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States 2 armour moved from Germany to Baltic States 2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland 1 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R. Combat - Germans Battle in North Sea Sea Zone Germans attack with 2 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 transport British defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British Germans roll dice for 2 fighters and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in North Sea Sea Zone 1 transport owned by the British and 1 battleship owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer in North Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in North Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone Germans win with 2 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28 Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine and 1 transport Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport Battle in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 3 infantry Russians defend with 1 artillery and 6 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 4/8 hits, 3.17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 6 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/7 hits, 2.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R. 4 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 4/7 hits, 3.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R. 2 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 2 armour, 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 13 Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 6 infantry Battle in East Poland Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry Russians defend with 4 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 3/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland Germans win, taking East Poland from Russians with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Russians: 4 infantry Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry Battle in Bessarabia Germans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Russians defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Bessarabia Germans win, taking Bessarabia from Russians with 1 artillery and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Russians: 1 armour and 1 infantry Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 fighter and 3 submarines British defend with 1 destroyer and 2 transports Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 transports in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits 2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone 2 transports owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone Germans win with 1 fighter and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 2 transports Battle in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport British defend with 1 destroyer Germans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans 1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone Germans win with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer Battle in English Channel Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 fighter and 1 submarine British defend with 1 destroyer Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the British lost in English Channel Sea Zone Germans win with 1 fighter and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone Germans attack with 3 submarines British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 transport owned by the British lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone Germans win with 2 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 transport Battle in Baltic States Germans attack with 2 armour and 3 infantry Russians defend with 3 infantry Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 2 armour and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Greece to Bulgaria 2 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Rumania 2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Czechoslovakia to Poland 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Austria to Hungary 2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy 2 armour moved from France to Germany 2 armour and 3 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany 2 armour moved from Germany to Poland 1 infantry moved from Denmark to Germany 4 infantry moved from Eastern France to Germany 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Germany to Poland 4 infantry moved from Norway to Finland 2 fighters moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Finland 1 fighter moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 1 fighter moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium 2 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Rumania 1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Rumania 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Algeria 1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria 1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Austria 2 armour moved from Northern Italy to Hungary 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia Place Units - Germans 1 artillery and 12 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 44 PUs 1 unit repaired.

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -0.67 Germans regular : 5.67 British regular : 0.67

G1.tsvg

Game History

Round: 1 Purchase Units - British British buy 3 transports; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 transport moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya British take Libya from Germans 1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from English Channel Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans 1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone Combat - British Battle in North Sea Sea Zone British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters Germans defend with 2 submarines and 1 transport British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 2.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone 1 bomber owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British retreated Germans win with 2 submarines and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -24 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 fighter Non Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by British to United Kingdom: 1 fighter EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Adding units owned by British to North Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by British from United Kingdom: 1 fighter EDIT: Removing units owned by British from North Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from North Sea Sea Zone: 1 transport EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from North Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 infantry moved from Iraq to Iran 1 infantry moved from Syria to Iran 1 infantry moved from Palestine to Syria 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Egypt to Libya 1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Malta to Egypt 1 armour moved from Canada to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 armour and 1 transport moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone Place Units - British 3 transports placed in Davis Strait Sea Zone Turn Complete - British British collect 21 PUs; end with 22 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 1.17 British regular : -2.17

UK1.tsvg i concede

Actually, I’ll just concede it here. There is no way I can put sufficient pressure on Germany at this point. Let’s go again.

Posted this to the wrong thread lol.

@The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 10 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 3 transports moved from SZ 14 to SZ 2 6 infantry moved from Canada to SZ 2 7 infantry moved from United States of America to Canada 2 transports moved from SZ 16 to SZ 14 2 transports moved from SZ 17 to SZ 16 4 infantry moved from Algeria to SZ 16 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from SZ 16 to SZ 17 4 infantry moved from SZ 17 to Piedmont 4 infantry moved from Morocco to SZ 14 2 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from SZ 14 to SZ 16 4 infantry moved from SZ 16 to Marseilles 4 infantry moved from Marseilles to Piedmont 6 infantry and 3 transports moved from SZ 2 to SZ 14 6 infantry moved from SZ 14 to Morocco Combat Move - Americans Place Units - Americans 7 infantry placed in United States of America Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 20 PUs; end with 20 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

ItUS10.tsvg

@The_Good_Captain

J10.tsvg

@Daaras Assumed no scramble to 94