Let’s assume that 1 Tank and 1 Inf remained in Man as suggested above.
2Inf,Japan; 2Inf,1Ftr Philippines; > MAN 1Inf,1Arm
96.7% success rate
1Inf,1Ftr French Indo China; 2Inf Kwangtung; 1 Bmb,1ftr Japan > China 2Inf 1Ftr
71% success rate
1BB Japan; 1BB,1AC,1Ftr Carolines; 1sub Solomons > Hawaii SZ1Sub, 1AC, 1Ftr
95% success rate
I should mention that the success rate is for capturing the territory so if you loose all three infantry in China and retreat your air the odds are still quite good that you got the fighter, which is the goal after all.
You will no doubt take heavy losses in Pearl and in the counter you may loose a large portion of your fleet, but the door to moscow will be wide open. and in a couple of turns you will be the economic power house of the world.